50% chance for everythin. Where does it says so?

[Nymrohd]

But things are not balanced around 50%. This is what you get if you do not focus on any stat. You cannot focus on everything at once but you sure can push one or two defenses or your hit very high.

 

[KarinsDad]

But things are not balanced around 50%. This is what you get if you do not focus on any stat.

Not really.

That's the issue at high level.

At first level, the chance to hit is about 60%.

At 30th level, the chance to hit is often about 40%, even if the player pushed the stat every time and got the best magical items. Some monsters have exceptions (like low Fort, Reflex, or Will), but typically AC ~= 14 + level.

To hit increases by +15, magic increases +6, and stats increase +4 (+5 with demigod). That still leaves a +4 to +5 gap.

The +4 to +5 delta and extra gain required is due to synergies such as having more Per Encounter and Daily attack powers at higher levels, having more ways for Leaders to assist the group, etc.

But if the player does not pump his main stat every time, he will fall even more behind than 40%.

You cannot focus on everything at once but you sure can push one or two defenses or your hit very high.

Even so, high level falls apart for defense because it is extremely difficult to keep all defenses even reasonably high. If the player completely balances his stats (i.e. not pushing one specific stat every time), his 40% to hit drops even lower. If he does not balance his stats (even making up for this with feats like Iron Will), one defense can easily be 5 to 8 higher than another defense. The monster might have a 50% chance to hit one defense, but might have an 80% or more chance to hit another defense.

 

[Doctor Proctor]

I've been wondering about this myself.

It sortof begs the argument, "Why have a d20 at all? Why not just flip a coin?" Hell, why even have levels if everything is going to remain balanced at roughly 50%?

For me, this screams for the need to have not only critical fumbles but also gauges of success and failure within the granularity of a d20. Otherwise, give me a d02 and all my balance problems are solved.

You're misunderstanding. The ~50% thing is a baseline established with certain assumptions. For example, a level 1 PC with a 16 Strength should hit around 50% of the time (give or take 5%) against equal level foes. Someone with a 14 in their stat, like the Ranger in my party, will hit less and therefore be less accurate. Someone with an 18 in their stat will then hit more, and be more accurate.

Then you have things like Weapon Talent Fighters with 18 STR or Dagger Rogues targeting Reflex with an 18 or 20 DEX. These guys will be very accurate, and should be hitting more like 60-70% of the time against equal level foes.

Proficiency bonus factors in there as well, as does targeting NAD's (Non-AC Defenses). So, when you look at a party as a whole they're probably not all hitting at 50%. Some guys will getting up into the 60-70% range, maybe even into the 80's with leader support. Others will be more towards the 50% range, and then jumping into the 60's with leader support or flanking bonuses. This allows us to use the 50% rule as a benchmark to get an idea of how a PC is performing compared to an "average" character.

 

[AngryPurpleCyclops]

It's a fine line between play balance issues and making the game so homogeneous at all levels that it loses it's flavor. The developers do a pretty solid job of skirting this by making the encounters varied n-2 to n+4 range (where n = party level) and inside that range they also vary the components of a encounter with the experience budget and a range of monsters that are level appropriate (pc level -4 to +7 though +7 monsters are very very dangerous). Additional texture is added to the system by using monster roles, soldiers are more dangerous in that their defenses are higher (though I would say it's a design flaw that more soldiers don't have at least one sub par non ac defense). Mixing various level monsters, with various roles in one encounter is how you get very flavorful encounters. We fought two gricks and a grell Sunday night and it tested our 4 level 5 pc's fully. The varied strengths of those creatures coupled with interesting terrain made a great encounter. Pick 1 or 2 monsters when building an encounter, throw in some underlings and some good terrain and the DM is the one who is preventing the game from being a flavorless exercise in flipping coins.