So, I often use dice to inform the fiction, particularly if I do not have anything planned, but in the instance where
I have things planned (which these days becomes less and less, 15th level and all),
I usually
run the clock = x time passes but you are unable to find/persuade y.
(4) What I have in mind when I talk about "GM-controlled way of establishing consequences" is when the GM uses their knowledge of secret setting information (an unrevealed map, or unrevealed stakes in an unrevealed key) to introduce consequences into the fiction regardless of what the players take to be at stake in their action declaration. For instance, the GM "knows" (= has decided), based on their notes, that there is nothing of the sort of thing that the PCs are looking for able to be found in a given place, but lets the players spend time futilely having their PCs search.
When dice are used then complications could arise or rewards/clues found, otherwise IMO why bother with dice, I just
run the clock and move to the next scene framing or action declaration.
Or the GM "knows" (again, = has decided) that a certain NPC won't accept a particular request, yet allows the players to spend time futilely trying to persuade or negotiate with that NPC.
Again in this instance, I
run the clock, you spend x minutes debating with y but are unable to persuade her to see your way.
As above with dice.
i.e. due to a poor turn in the conversation PC incurs disadvantage on future social interactions with y or although y doesn't fully commit she is sympathetic to your plight and thus offers x to assist you - along those lines.
Do you ever tell the player, based on their character's insight, that y's initial interaction is not to assist/commit, and then ask if the character decides to engage further the results will be determined via a SC.
And then proceed to inform the player
upfront of the possible stakes and possible rewards of failure and success respectively?
The stuff I've described just above in (4) has some overlap with (3), in terms of the techniques used (hidden information, map-and-key). But it differs in the way the GM approaches the relationship between (i) that information, (ii) framing of scenes/situations, (iii) the players' knowledge of what is at stake in scenes/situations, and hence (iv) how consequences of players' declared actions are established.
The approach in (4) is pretty fundamental, I think, to many people's ways of approaching RPGing, but is something I try to avoid. Hopefully you can see, in how I describe (3), that this avoidance can have an element of judgement and trial-and-error to it! But nevertheless is a real thing that one can aim for as a GM.
Thanks, got it.