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D&D 5E Concentration vs Fighter: A little math

Stalker0

Legend
In the thread on Weak Saving Throws, there is a lot of concern about fighters getting hit by big spells they have little chance of resisting.

The maincounterpoint is concentration, a lot of spells seem easy to lose once the spellcaster takes a hit.

How easy? Lets do the math!


We enter our new Stalwart Exemplar, Nymradon the Human Cleric. I will make him a battle like cleric, who is going into melee. Statwise for low levels we will give him:

Str 16, Dex 13, Con 14, Int 9, Wis 15, Cha 11

He will have a half plate and shield, combined with his Dex +1 for an AC of 18. His Concentration Check is +2.

He will be facing our eternal cohort Cuthgar the Fighter. Early levels Cuthgar will be sporting the usual 16 str, +2 prof, Longsword with Dueling Style.


Now...the key with concentration checks is, until you are doing 22 damage or more, its all DC 10 checks. And...for fighters that is actually the vast vast majority of their careers! So its all about the to hit, not the damage.

The attack is +5 vs AC 18, and then a +2 Concentration Check vs DC 10.

Chance to Keep Spell (1 round): 86%
Chance to Keep Spell (4 rounds): 55%
Bonus Info, Chance to Keep Spell (1 round - TWF): 74%
Bonus Info, Chance to Keep Spell (4 rounds - TWF): 30%

Conclusion: Keeping concentration for a whole fight is really tough, basically a coin flip if you are fighting just one person. Further, its interesting to note that TWF is much stronger at breaking concentration...because hitting, not damaging is what is important (only the greataxe, on a crit, with a high damage roll can do enough damage to provoke anything but a DC 10 concentration check). Even GWF might consider keeping a pair of shortswords or daggers around to mess with an enemy spellcaster.


Lets take it to 20th. Level Cuthgar now has Str +5, Prof: +6. I am going to be kind and give Nymradon a 14 dex and a 16 con. That is being a little bit generous I think, strength and wisdom are important stats to a battlecleric, expecting them to raise both dex and con maybe too much. But lets just see what it looks like.

Attack + 11 vs AC 19. +3 concentration check.

Even at this level, Cuthgar would have to get a crit AND roll a 15 or 16 on his 2d8 damage roll to actually provoke a DC 11 concentration check. The chance is so low I'm not even going to factor it in (less than 1%), its DC 10 all the way for spellcasters fighting longsword fighters.


Chance to Keep Spell (1 attack): 80.5%
Chance to Keep Spell (1 round - 4 attacks): 42%
Chance to Keep Spell (4 rounds - 16 attacks): 3%

Conclusion: For high level combat, if the spellcaster is getting into melee with a fighter, he should just assume his concentration spells will last him a round at most.
 

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DogBackward

First Post
Don't forget that the concentration spell in question may also have a say in how this goes down. For example, if the spell your Cleric is trying to keep up is shield of faith, that would have a say in how likely it is for the spell to stay up, since it helps prevent attacks from hitting in the first place.
 

Nagol

Unimportant
Did you factor in dropping to zero hp in the low-level version or is this just failing the Concentration check?

If we factor in falling to 0 hp (but ignore changes to the base chance from the concentration spell itself), our first level cleric has a 75% chance of keeping concentration, 8% chance of losing concentration, and a 17% chance of falling to 0 hp in one round.

After four rounds, those odds move to 26%, 17%, 57% respectively.

*edit I just noticed the fighter has +2 damage from dueling -- changing the results appropriately
 
Last edited:

Klaus

First Post
What is the math against a non-battle cleric, or against a wizard?

Also note that any fighter above 2nd level might use Action Surge to get more attacks. The high-level fighter could easily pull 8 attacks on the battle cleric (9 with TWF).
 


Nagol

Unimportant
What is the math against a non-battle cleric, or against a wizard?

Also note that any fighter above 2nd level might use Action Surge to get more attacks. The high-level fighter could easily pull 8 attacks on the battle cleric (9 with TWF).

Unless the non-battle cleric has a different AC or Con bonus, the odds remain the same. Those are the real defensive drivers.

For a 1st level Wizard with an AC of 13 and the same Con Bonus of +2

1 round: 50% kept conc, 8% lost conc, 42% fell to 0 hp
4 rounds: 4%, 12%, 84%
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
For example, if the spell your Cleric is trying to keep up is shield of faith, that would have a say in how likely it is for the spell to stay up, since it helps prevent attacks from hitting in the first place.

Yes, but the OP said that the question was about fighters making saves, and whether forcing concentration checks was part of the expected defense.

The fighter probably isn't going to beat on the cleric for the express purpose of trying to bring down a shield of faith.
 

I don't have a problem with fighters being able to go up and break a caster's concentration relatively quickly if that's what they are intending to do. The numbers here look appropriate.

What concerns me is more about casters or other opponents with AoEs. Most of them still damage you on a save. The higher level you get, the harder it is to keep concentration against such spells. If your caster with the right spells (including clerics and druids as well as wizards and sorcerers) wants to break enemy concentration, they can. Simple. Just cast a fireball or a flame strike, or whatever, and *poof* there goes concentration. That means battles between high level casters are going to pretty much just be direct damage attacks vs. direct damage attacks, since everything else only lasts until your opponent's turn. I suppose you can attempt spells that lockdown the opposing caster, since if he doesn't make his save on his turn you can keep it going. But where is the fun in that? I'd rather have the ability for one buff or debuff or summon or earthquake, and then start blasting (or even attempt a lockdown if so inclined).

Fighters seem to be working as intended, but caster vs. caster at higher levels appears to be nothing but a blast fest.

Don't get me wrong--I like the blast fest as a competitive option. I just don't like it as the only option.
 

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