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D&D and the rising pandemic

Retreater

Legend
Was just reading on CNN about the study in Israel about Pfizer dropping to 20% (or less) effectiveness in a matter of months (while still being 90% against serious illness or death). At this point I'm about to just give up on this ever being over or improving beyond where it is right now.
 

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Cadence

Legend
Supporter
Was just reading on CNN about the study in Israel about Pfizer dropping to 20% (or less) effectiveness in a matter of months (while still being 90% against serious illness or death). At this point I'm about to just give up on this ever being over or improving beyond where it is right now.

47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me. I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.

Would almost be surprised at this point if we don't start getting annual boosters for COVID mixed in with the annual flu shots.

If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?
 

Retreater

Legend
47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me. I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.

Would almost be surprised at this point if we don't start getting annual boosters for COVID mixed in with the annual flu shots.

If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?
Here's the article link:

They mentioned that it's possible that vaccinated folks were possibly less likely to mask and social distance because of the protection the vaccine offered. But really, who knows without a long-term study of the behaviors of the individuals?

I think that at this point, "annual" boosters isn't going to cut it - not for Pfizer anyway, because it wanes too quickly. Also, it's not sustainable to give out seasonable boosters just to keep the protection above 50%, especially when some developing nations don't have wide access to any vaccines, and considering the cost of producing and administering the vaccines.

And remember, if this follows last year's pattern, summer is supposed to be the low infection period, with a big ramp up in fall and winter. So it's probably going to be getting much, much worse - especially now that our vaccine effectiveness is dwindling to a statistical improbability.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
47% after 6 months vs. infection in the first study that popped up for me. I do wonder in some of these studies how they control for the vaccinated probably being more likely to distance and mask in many places.

The article I read on this today noted that the observed lack of effectiveness may be due to the vaccinated RELAXING caution, and going to places where they'd get greater exposure as a result.

If the infection rate is cut in half and the serious illness rate is cut to a tenth, does that push it into just another thing like the flu?

If we cut the death rate by a factor of 10, then it comes in at the upper end of how many the flu kill each year. So, a naive estimate would suggest that might be okay.

However, that leaves out the issue of "long covid", which is suffered by nearly a third of those who get it. That would make covid rather more costly than the flu - people down for months instead of a week or so.

Also, you know how one of the prime symptoms of covid is loss of sense of smell? That's troubling. Current studies suggest that while the virus itself doesn't infect the brain, the widespread inflammatory processes it kicks off in the body do also take place in the brain - which seems to lead to long-term or permanent chemical and physical impacts on the brain, and possible loss of function - loss of memory, depression, fatigue, and the like.

So, the level that we find 'acceptable" may be lower than that of the flu.
 

niklinna

Looking for group
Has anybody seen info on getting different vaccines? Say you got Moderna, and now it's six months later. Do you get a booster of Moderna, or get a J&J?
 

Janx

Hero
Has anybody seen info on getting different vaccines? Say you got Moderna, and now it's six months later. Do you get a booster of Moderna, or get a J&J?
I haven't seen it official, but since the two-shot protocol was same-same, I'd expect the booster to be the same. If nothing else because each vendor tests it that way for sure.

So Moderna+Moderna, then a Moderna booster.

While it could be different than that, this seems the simplest.
 


niklinna

Looking for group
Mm, I should have given the question more thought. A booster would by definition be of the same vaccine. I'm wondering about what happens if you just get a different vaccine. I haven't heard of any studies about that, but I have heard about the different qualities of the different vaccines. So, I can imagine that getting two different vaccines (not at the same time!) might be a good thing. Or, even with a time gap, it could cause problems!
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
I haven't seen it official, but since the two-shot protocol was same-same, I'd expect the booster to be the same. If nothing else because each vendor tests it that way for sure.

So Moderna+Moderna, then a Moderna booster.

While it could be different than that, this seems the simplest.

I don't believe there's been any solid testing on the efficacy of cross-brand boosters at this point. That doesn't mean it won't work, but there's no study behind it yet.
 

Janx

Hero
I don't believe there's been any solid testing on the efficacy of cross-brand boosters at this point. That doesn't mean it won't work, but there's no study behind it yet.
that's part of why I assumed they'd stick to same.

Though one could argue, if one brand faded off sooner than others, and the patient waited "longer", they might just reset the clock and use a different brand to start over.

But that's just me speculating.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
There have been reports of people getting “whatever” injection they could get, resulting in individuals having mixed vaccines, but there’s no scientific data. I suspect someone is doing research on that, though, just for pragmatic reasons if nothing else.

If Covid is truly endemic, certain regions WILL run out of particular vaccines at some point. And people will continue to move around the world. If our immune systems react radically differently to the various vaccines, we NEED to know if someone who got AZ this year can be protected by “boosters” of J&J or Moderna or whatever going forward, or if they’ll be starting from scratch.
 



Hussar

Legend
My wife got Moderna and was sick as a dog for a couple of days. Still felt crappy for about a week. Me and my daughter both got Pfizer and were a bit sore for a day and that was about it.

One does hope that the oral medicine coming out will be effective. Certainly a heck of a lot easier to spread.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Is the biggest difference between Moderna and Pfizer the dose (which possibly explains the differences in side effects and effectiveness)?

No idea. I just looked at the numbers not that we get a choice here. It's Pzizer or Pfizer.

It was my first choice a while ago but eh.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
My wife got Moderna and was sick as a dog for a couple of days. Still felt crappy for about a week. Me and my daughter both got Pfizer and were a bit sore for a day and that was about it.

One does hope that the oral medicine coming out will be effective. Certainly a heck of a lot easier to spread.
Well, my understanding is that Merck’s pill is a treatment for those who get COVID, as opposed to a preventative like a vaccine.

Importantly, the pill’s mechanism for combatting COVID could be risky. It’s probably going to remain in limited, regulated circulation for quite a while after it gets approved.
 

Eltab

Lord of the Hidden Layer
Though one could argue, if one brand faded off sooner than others, and the patient waited "longer", they might just reset the clock and use a different brand to start over.
Tangent:
With several tens of millions of COVID-vaccinated people to survey, a straightforward question could be asked: When did you get your shots, and how far apart were they? Please get an effectiveness test and report those results.
Most childhood vaccines that require two-plus shots are given 3 or 6 or 12 months apart, and they 'stick' for the long term. The current difficulty might be rooted in the two-to-six week schedule between shots being used.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Well the got the cases down to 12 or so. Creeping up now and cases outside Auckland.

So how bad is it in sane US states and what's considered a good vaccination rates?
 


Zardnaar

Legend
I think 2 of our states are at or approaching 80% with at least their first injection. Beyond that? Pbbbbbbtttt!

First jabs Nationally 77.9, local 86.8, suburb 84.7

Double 62.8% 58.3% local.

As of two days ago. One place hit 101% (population figures slightly wrong).

Locally I think it's over 80% first jab but that's the highest in nation but that's changing ever day.

Trying to work out what to expect.
 
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