D&D and the rising pandemic

[Snarf Zagyg]

See, this is why the US is calling it operation warp speed.

It has two parts. First, the vaccine.

Then, a time machine so we can go back in time and vaccinate people before, um, the virus came. Because it takes a while to administer the vaccine, and it's usually two parts.

Okay, we need a third part.

We also need to go back in time before they need to be vaccinated in order to educate people so that they don't refuse vaccines. Because we can't have a large number of objectors, given that the vaccines aren't 100% effective. Not to mention that with a two-part vaccine that has some side effects, a lot of people might not show up for a second dose.


Ugh. We just need better people.

 

[Thomas Shey]

Moderna, you mean?

There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine. Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.

 

[Zardnaar]

See, this is why the US is calling it operation warp speed.

It has two parts. First, the vaccine.

Then, a time machine so we can go back in time and vaccinate people before, um, the virus came. Because it takes a while to administer the vaccine, and it's usually two parts.

Okay, we need a third part.

We also need to go back in time before they need to be vaccinated in order to educate people so that they don't refuse vaccines. Because we can't have a large number of objectors, given that the vaccines aren't 100% effective. Not to mention that with a two-part vaccine that has some side effects, a lot of people might not show up for a second dose.


Ugh. We just need better people.

This is why I became a cynic in the 90's.

When people do the right thing you get a pleasant surprise. When they don't you avoid the disappointed.

I don't really get disappointed much.

 

[Zardnaar]

There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine. Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.

Got some Russian posters on another thread. They're going to take Sputnik just not first in line.

Also jokes about volunteering and "Russian volunteering".

 

[Cadence]

My optimistic bound is most things open in the US by start of June. My pessimistic is everything open by end of June but 50% of the folks won't have bothered with the vaccine and all of the lawsuits will be about whether schools and employers can require it.

No I think Moderna is similar tech as Pfizer with a similar limit...

I believe moderna can survive in a normal freezer for 30 days.

 

[Cadence]

For the US, one of the things that hasn't gotten as much comment as I thought it might in the media are officer and related deaths from COVID 19. I wonder what the overlap is of those who think COVID numbers are inflated/hoax in general and those who generally have pro-officer things at the top of their agenda. (There were 130 total deaths through November last year; 2 of the ones below are December this year. Numbers from odmp.org ).

 

[Umbran]

And from what I understand, its not even entirely clear that the vaccines are producing immunity per se; its clear they've had very good results at completely suppressing symptoms, but its not equally clear whether the beneficiaries can't still be shedding virii.

So, because biology is incredibly complicated, we need to talk about the difference between infection, and disease. In many North American bat populations, infection with the virus that causes rabies is endemic - pretty much every bat you come across is likely to be infected. However, bats show no symptoms of rabies.

If we want to be picky (and here, it pays to be so), the disease is not the infection, but a collection of symptoms - often called a "syndrome" - caused by that infection. The virus we are dealing with is SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), and the disease is covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease - 2019). So, technically speaking, we can talk about immunity to infection, and immunity to the disease separately.

The basic test for efficacy of a vaccine is a test for whether you get the disease. The vaccine typically manages this by reducing the viral load down to levels such that it cannot cause disease. This usually means that your viral load is also low enough that you cannot effectively transmit the virus. The fact of the matter is that it is terribly uncommon for a vaccine to make you immune to the disease, but also infectious.

However, when a scientist says something is "not entirely clear" that usually means they haven't SPECIFICALLY tested that scenario, which would require an entirely different testing regimen. So, the scientist, being totally truthful, can't tell you for absolute certainty that you aren't shedding virus, because they've been busy testing whether it will make you sick. The fact that they haven't tested that specific issue does not mean there's any real concern around it in terms of the health benefits of the vaccine.

 

[Garthanos]

There's also Astra-Zeneca and the Chinese vaccine. Theoretically Sputnik, too, but I'm not sure anyone trusts that one at all.

Astra Zeneca was the one I was thinking of

I believe moderna can survive in a normal freezer for 30 days.

I thought it took higher freezing rates too but that is good to read (I verified)

 

[billd91]

Having the first vaccine approved in the UK before Christmas seemed like great timing, but I'm starting to think it's the opposite. It won't be rolled out in sufficient volumes to cover much of the country before next year, but the fact that it's now "here" is likely to mean that people abandon even the reduced level of precautions they would have taken over the holiday.

That's been going through my mind as well. And I'd be a lot more worried about it if it weren't for the fact that about half the US seems to have defaulted to a "eff it" attitude already. It seems hard to imagine we haven't hit bottom yet, though I suppose there's always a chance that we hit bottom and start digging.

 

[Umbran]

Okay, we need a third part.

Profit!