D&D and the rising pandemic

[NotAYakk]

Sure, but right now people are making decisions between protecting half as many people and reserving enough for a 2nd dose for everyone.

If we are at all certain we need 2 doses to generate immunity, reserving half makes sensr.

If we are not, then relying on supply chains (which can fail) to deliver the 2nd dose is the winning move.

I am saying it is very likely we get near full protection before the 2nd dose, and it is even plausible that the 2nd dose might be not needed; this is only plausible, and relying in it is a bad idea outside of emergencies.

OTOH, with thatbeing plausible, it would mean getting doses into people's arms even if we cannot guarantee 95%+ second dose tracking is a good plan.

But if there was a randomized trial to get only 1 dose, starting today, and track who gets covid 19, I'd enroll.

Vaccinating 7 billion people is a serious logistcal challenge. The possibility of doing it with.only 1 injection would make it insanely easier.

 

[Eltab]

Another way to look at this is, if you are not in a 'high risk for disastrous complications' category, if you wait to get your second shot so others can get their first shot (and you schedule your second shot for when the rush is over), you are not committing a mortal sin against society.

 

[Ryujin]

I seem to recall numbers suggesting that the second dose, in both cases, bumped the efficacy from something in the neighbourhood of 60%, to approx. 95%. Ballparking from memory, so please don't hold me to those exact numbers.

 

[NotAYakk]

I seem to recall numbers suggesting that the second dose, in both cases, bumped the efficacy from something in the neighbourhood of 60%, to approx. 95%. Ballparking from memory, so please don't hold me to those exact numbers.

Yes, but as I just found out, they worked out the effectiveness by including the first 10-12 days of little to no protection with the rest of the pre-injection 2 period.

The graph makes it extremely unlikely that your chance is uniform over the pre-vaccine period. The fact that both mRNA vaccines have similar graphs with similar inflection points...

I mean, we aren't dead certain here. We haven't done the trials.

And no, you shouldn't defer the 2nd dose if you get the first either, not unless (a) you are part of a trial or (b) something goes wrong with supply lines. There is still a (collective) risk; if it is less effective, it could lead to evolution pressure on the virus to learn to bypass the vaccine.

 

[Eltab]

And no, you shouldn't defer the 2nd dose if you get the first either, not unless (a) you are part of a trial or (b) something goes wrong with supply lines. There is still a (collective) risk; if it is less effective, it could lead to evolution pressure on the virus to learn to bypass the vaccine.

If that was reacting to my comment above?
Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses. <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>

 

[Garthanos]

If that was reacting to my comment above?
Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses. <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>

Yeh all of my warehoused supply not being used is basically not for anyone's mom to here

 

[NotAYakk]

If that was reacting to my comment above?
Option (b) has already happened: several States did not in fact have the prep work done to provide more than a trickle of vaccinations and their supply is backing up in the warehouses. <Insert here not-EnWorld-compliant comment about clogging the front of their lines with non-healthcare-related categories>

Sure, but that only kicks in in 3-4 weeks; hopefully their government stops being idiotic and gets vaccines into people more efficiently.

Up here in Ontario, we are expected 80k-100k doses per week soon, and we are only giving out a few 1-2k of vaccines per day. Things are going to get interesting. (We need to break 11k-14k per day to handle the incoming supply).

By April we are expecting about a million doses per week, that requires 140k doses per day administered.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

And- since there are several other vaccines still in development and/or human trials- there’s a possibility that one of those may be a single dose treatment.

 

[Eltab]

Yeh all of my warehoused supply not being used is basically not for anyone's mom to here

One opinion article observes that Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid, and similar drug store chains already have the capability to distribute and administer medications on the desired scale, nationwide; why re-invent the wheel when the Government could write a contract or three? Some (not all) stores have a med clinic inside and that would be a way to get the process moving.

 

[NotAYakk]

Do they have -70 degree freezers, the ability to track who got the vaccine, and capable of prioritizing who gets it?