D&D and the rising pandemic

[Hussar]

On the housing thing - I just bought a house here in Japan. Nice two story 1200 square foot house (or thereabouts). House is about 15 years old. My parents house in Southern Ontario, 30 km from London (for those who know the area), is just shy of 50 years old and in a tiny podunk town of about 1000 people. Just sold for nearly double what I paid for my house here in Japan. :wow: The housing market in Ontario is ludicrous.

 

[Zardnaar]

If you want to put a house in the middle of nowhere, a hundred miles from any job, sure, you can do that cheap. But the urban areas are already built up to (and somewhat beyond) the carrying capacity for the infrastructure around them.

I'm talking about something like a state capital or a town 5000-50000.

Somewhere you can get a job but options are limited. My hometown pop 13k a house is around 280k usd(about 70k when I left in 2000).

Where I was born (4-5k) is approaching 700k usd. The absolute cheapest you could find was 140k a year or two ago not sure what that would cost now. That's our version of West Virginia ex coal mining country.

 

[GreyLord]

There are several reasons why housing has gone up.

ONE that hits an unpopular nerve is the moratorium on evictions in certain places. I am against kicking people out usually, but there are times when it gets extreme.

For example, I have a small two bedroom house I'd LOVE to get rid of. I can't. I had renters. That's not a problem normally, but they haven't paid me any money for rent since March 2020. Furthermore, they haven't paid utilities. AS, even if it is signed up in their name, the utilities reflect on my property, I have been paying for THEIR utilities and getting no rent or money from them for over a year and a half. There was a brief stint I discussed with the Lawyers on evicting them recently, but it's in questionable waters after an extension by the CDC.

Love to sell it...but can't.

I think there are actually a LOT Of people in a similar boat as I am. This has limited housing...a LOT more than usual as well.

IT is ONE factor which is also causing a housing squeeze (obviously not the ONLY reason by far, there are also not enough houses, lumber shortage, etc).

This is unpopular to talk about though, but with normal rentals and evicting if people don't pay, it opens up areas and inspires landlords to do improvements to property. I have ZERO incentives to build more units or even sell the one I have with the current situation, plus, I'm spending the money I could have used to build other units or houses on other property on the one I already have since right now it's a money sink (I still have to pay taxes on it, and in addition, as I noted, I'm paying utilities and other items in it's upkeep, such as also having to ensure it's lawn is mowed and kept up since I don't want it turning into a wilderness).

It's not nice to evict people, I don't think it should be done in general or normal circumstances. Even normally I'll give people a 3-6 month grace period, but this situation exceeds a LOT else.

AS I said, it's not the ONLY reason for a housing squeeze by far, but it is a contributing factor when many of the places that would be normally freed up are not freed up.

 

[Zardnaar]

There are several reasons why housing has gone up.

ONE that hits an unpopular nerve is the moratorium on evictions in certain places. I am against kicking people out usually, but there are times when it gets extreme.

For example, I have a small two bedroom house I'd LOVE to get rid of. I can't. I had renters. That's not a problem normally, but they haven't paid me any money for rent since March 2020. Furthermore, they haven't paid utilities. AS, even if it is signed up in their name, the utilities reflect on my property, I have been paying for THEIR utilities and getting no rent or money from them for over a year and a half. There was a brief stint I discussed with the Lawyers on evicting them recently, but it's in questionable waters after an extension by the CDC.

Love to sell it...but can't.

I think there are actually a LOT Of people in a similar boat as I am. This has limited housing...a LOT more than usual as well.

IT is ONE factor which is also causing a housing squeeze (obviously not the ONLY reason by far, there are also not enough houses, lumber shortage, etc).

This is unpopular to talk about though, but with normal rentals and evicting if people don't pay, it opens up areas and inspires landlords to do improvements to property. I have ZERO incentives to build more units or even sell the one I have with the current situation, plus, I'm spending the money I could have used to build other units or houses on other property on the one I already have since right now it's a money sink (I still have to pay taxes on it, and in addition, as I noted, I'm paying utilities and other items in it's upkeep, such as also having to ensure it's lawn is mowed and kept up since I don't want it turning into a wilderness).

It's not nice to evict people, I don't think it should be done in general or normal circumstances. Even normally I'll give people a 3-6 month grace period, but this situation exceeds a LOT else.

AS I said, it's not the ONLY reason for a housing squeeze by far, but it is a contributing factor when many of the places that would be normally freed up are not freed up.

Watched a YouTube video on this pretty much exact same situation. People just stopped paying rent even if they didn't lose their jobs.

 

[Umbran]

There's still quite a bit of land within 20 miles of most of the metro areas in central South Carolina. Whether the infrastructure is good for as many as we need is an entirely different matter...

Well, consider - I live within 8 miles of downtown Boston. Back when I had to go into the office every day, my trip home from work could be an hour and a half. My wife, who drives all around the area to make house calls, has many days where going 10 miles takes her over an hour.

 

[Cadence]

Well, consider - I live within 8 miles of downtown Boston. Back when I had to go into the office every day, my trip home from work could be an hour and a half. My wife, who drives all around the area to make house calls, has many days where going 10 miles takes her over an hour.

Cities in SC are at a bit different scale than Boston/NY/LA/Chicago/etc...

 

[Umbran]

Cities in SC are at a bit different scale than Boston/NY/LA/Chicago/etc...

Greater Los Angeles area population ~ 18 million.
Greater Chicago area population ~ 9.5 million.
Greater NYC area population ~ 20 million
...
Greater Boston area population ~ 5 million

And if we only talk about the city proper, there are 20 US cities larger than Boston - including Columbus, OH, and Charlottte, NC.

 

[Cadence]

Greater Los Angeles area population ~ 18 million.
Greater Chicago area population ~ 9.5 million.
Greater NYC area population ~ 20 million
...
Greater Boston area population ~ 5 million

And if we only talk about the city proper, there are 20 US cities larger than Boston - including Columbus, OH, and Charlottte, NC.

Are housing prices more based on the MSA than just the city proper?

Our three big MSAs in South Carolina are...
Greenville-Anderson 921k (131.3/km^2)
Columbia 840k (87.6/km^2)
Charleston 805k (120.0/km^2)

By MSA population
#11 Boston-Cambridge 4.8 mil (540.1/km^2)
#22 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia 2.6 mil (182.1/km^2)
#32 Columbus 2.1 mil (171.1/km^2)

Looking at it, I wonder how much the population density has to do with it (it feels like it should matter some). A site had the ranking for 2017 for that as follows (with the 2019 cost of living ranking from tax foundation in parentheses)

1 LA-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,046 (11)
2 NY-Newark-Jersey City 929 (7)
3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward 706 (2)
4 Urban Honolulu 632 (4)
5 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk 581 (9)
6 New Haven-Milford 551 (not top 15)
7 Boston-Cambridge-Newton 519 (14)
8 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 512 (not top 15)
9 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 506 (not top 15)

Most expensive cost of living in 2019 also included
San Jose #1, Santa Cruz #3, Napa #5, Santa Rosa #6, Vallejo #8, Oxnard #12, San Diego #13, ... so obviously being in California is a big effect too

 

[Umbran]

Are housing prices more based on the MSA than just the city proper?

So, when you first use a term, maybe don't use just the acronym - I presume you mean "Metropolitan Statistical Area".

I think housing prices are dependent on many things, and in complicated ways. I expect simple heuristics that hold up to scrutiny would be hard to come by.

By MSA population
#11 Boston-Cambridge 4.8 mil (540.1/km^2)
#22 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia 2.6 mil (182.1/km^2)
#32 Columbus 2.1 mil (171.1/km^2)

Looking at it, I wonder how much the population density has to do with it (it feels like it should matter some).

I'm sure it does, but not in a simple way. It also pay to be very careful when considering MSAs, as they are not created equal.

For example - for Boston, you name "Boston-Cambridge" and "Boston-Cambridge-Newton". Those are three adjacent towns, but we must be clear that the actual MSA they are talking about is in no way limited to those towns. That MSA includes almost the entire eastern half of the state of Massachusetts and two counties in New Hampshire! This is NOT a region with all the same housing prices.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Dallas/Fort Worth is one of the USA’s larger metropolitan areas, both in terms of population and sprawl. But as you examine property values across the few dozen cities covering 4 counties that make it up, you’ll see HUGE variations.

Like I said before, my family lives in an upper middle class neighborhood in one of the suburbs. There are places in D/FW where we could have literally twice as much house and land as we do right now. There are also places where our house’s price wouldn’t get you a pool house on your property.