D&D and the rising pandemic

[NotAYakk]

Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US. Total. Not 300 a day. Let's not get too hysterical shall we? And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people. More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.

Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

None of those other ways of dieing double every 3 days and have for months.

Please stop saying "don't panic" when you don't take into account growth rates and talk about the start of an exponential curve. If you don't pay attention to growth rates, yes, it looks like there is nothing to worry about.

But when something gets 2x as big every 3 days or 10x every 10 days without massive intervention, and half of the country isn't doing that intervention, then 1000 becomes 10,000 becomes 100,000 becomes 1 million in the blink of an eye.

Then you add in that the interventions have a 2-3 week delay in stopping that growth in deaths, and if you aren't panicing, you aren't paying attention.

Spain and France are in deep trouble. Saying you are better off than Spain and France isn't saying much. UK almost decided to go "let it burn", and has only recently changed course.

Of all of those places, only USA is convex up on the deaths curve on a logarithmic graph. You don't want to be convex up on a logarithmic graph.

Basically, WA managed the epidemic by going into lockdown early enough, and got an early spike of 20 cases in a single health care facility as its "4th death". This gave it a much slower curve, as it started lockdown earlier in the epidemic

Now NYC is taking off, and it has less than a week of social distancing. Its local epidemic deaths are exploding at +33% per day, or 2x faster than every 3 days.

Basically, the growth factor of the US epidemic switched from 2x every 10 days to 2x every 3 days as WA's epidemic was overtaken by NY's epidemic.

Other state epidemics are growing like NYC not WA.

The problem with the epidemic isn't panic it is lack of panic.

 

[ad_hoc]

The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.

Their numbers continue to climb.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

By state:

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[FrogReaver]

In potentially good news. It took 3 days to double the number of cases in the U.S. (a first since reaching high numbers)

Of course at some point our testing will hit capacity and at that point the number of cases will appear to only be growing linearly (manufacturing tests is essentially constant - testing 100,000 people a day will show linear growth to overall number of people tested). I would bet we will reach that point soon. So really it's the death curve that's going to be important to watch in the upcoming weeks.

 

[Sacrosanct]

The USA is now the country with the highest number of confirmed cases in the world at 82 000.

Their numbers continue to climb.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 122,423,321 Cases and 2,703,987 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

By state:

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one. The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future. Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

@FrogReaver go and look at the Virginia Dept of Health page again for today. They have started giving more statistics like breaking down the number of cases by age groups and sex and race. I would copy and paste it here, but I can seem to get it to work for me.

 

[ad_hoc]

I'd suggest looking at the logarithmic scale as opposed to the linear one. The logarithmic scale shows you if we're still in exponential growth, which is the biggest indicator of how tough it will look in the future. Once that starts to flatten, then we know we're near peak.

One tough thing about looking at a scale like that is that it is confined by the amount of testing that can be done.

I've read that the USA is currently at 70 000 tests per day and are looking to increase that to 100 000.

Of course the rate of positives can continue to climb within that.

If you take a look at the numbers by states, there are quite a few which are starting to explode. 5-10 states on that list have doubled in the last 2 days from 1000 cases to 2000.

New Jersey has gained 2500 cases today alone.

 

[ad_hoc]

Here are some logarithmic charts.

 

[NotAYakk]

Based off ad_hoc's graphs above:

8 days for 10x increase in number of confirmed cases.

8 days for a 10x increase in the number of deaths (last 8 days).

This indicates to me that it is very plausible that the "testing coverage" in the USA isn't getting better/worse.

There are 100 positive deaths for every death. If a death takes an average of 20 days since infection, and every 8 days the epidemic is getting 10x larger, in those 20 days the epidemic has gotten 316x larger, unless social distancing has kicked in. If we assume social distancing has lowered the spread to 2x every 8 days in the last 8 days, the epidemic has instead gotten 10^1.5 * 2 or 63 time bigger. So in the next 20 days, you can expect 6,300 deaths. If it didn't, you can instead expect 31,600 deaths.

6300 deaths is at the edge of the entire country's medical capabilities, because for every dead person in a high quality hospital, you have 5-15 people in the ICU. And 30,000 to 90,000 ICUs will take every ICU not in use in the USA.

If almost all of your confirmed cases are people arriving with serious issues in hospital, and that happens ~8 days after infection, then since they got infected the epidemic has gotten 10x larger.

When the 80,000 people who are diagnosed got infected, back on March 18, there are now about 800,000 people who are going to get sick enough to need hospital care. This will respond quicker to isolation, however.

If we map back 1.5 more weeks (12 days) we get to 2,500 people on or before March 4th who got sick and will eventually need serious hospital care. About 5x the dead, which is not that inconsistent with other countries.

Based on 1918, this will hit big cities first, then burn through the countryside.

 

[The Green Hermit]

Umm, they just hit 1000 deaths in the US. Total. Not 300 a day. Let's not get too hysterical shall we? And, again, even if it was 300, this is a country of 300 million people. More than 300 people a day die in all sorts of ways.

Again, a bit of perspective and calm is far more helpful than panic.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

And it's even lower, because we don't test as many people. We are only seeing the rate of those that are hospitalized.

 

[FrogReaver]

So... no, we would not cancel our sessions.

This pandemic is a lot of media hype. I am not saying it isn't there or real, and I feel horrible for the regions affected, but media feeds into the fears of the people. I do a lot in the stock markets, and this is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy! People are stockpiling supplies like it is the end of the world.

If the news was broadcast in grayscale and not color, people wouldn't be nearly as freaked out. Consider this revised map:

Spoiler: Revised Map

View attachment 119761

No reaction, right? Could mean anything.

Now, look at site like Wikipedia even, notice how the map is just shades of red?

Spoiler: Original Map

View attachment 119762

Our reaction is something scary is going on. According to this map, it looks like all 1 billion plus people in China are already gone!

And that causes fear and panic instead of rational reactions.

Certainly in areas where the virus is present, people need to be cautious, but media pushes it overboard in my estimation.

So, we will continue to meet to play D&D.

curious if this is still your opinion?