D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

[CleverNickName]

The roster (at the bottom of this thread's first post) is up-to-date, with everyone's current bids as of 10:00 a.m. PST today. Here are the stats:

Current number of players: 58
Highest guess: @Henadic Theologian, $400,000,000
Lowest guess: @Cergorach, $2,100,000
Average of all guesses: $62,855,633.25
Median: $51,000,000
Contestant closest to the linear average: @GreyLord, at $62M. @Lanefan has gone over.
Contestant closest to the median: @Jer, at $50M. @Mr. Wilson has gone over.

Looks like the numbers are trending down from last week, which is surprising considering the recent reviews it's been getting from advanced screenings.

 

[OB1]

I'm starting to think the opening weekend might be pretty small. Looking at at a few theatres near me (SoCal), I'm not seeing more than 5-10% of seats reserved for Thurs and Fri showings. I'll be a little bummed if my 7p Thurs night IMAX screening only has 20 or so people in it, I want a full theatre laughing and cheering!

 

[Henadic Theologian]

The roster (at the bottom of this thread's first post) is up-to-date, with everyone's current bids as of 10:00 a.m. PST today. Here are the stats:

Current number of players: 58
Highest guess: @Henadic Theologian, $400,000,000
Lowest guess: @Cergorach, $2,100,000
Average of all guesses: $62,855,633.25
Median: $51,000,000
Contestant closest to the linear average: @GreyLord, at $62M. @Lanefan has gone over.
Contestant closest to the median: @Jer, at $50M. @Mr. Wilson has gone over.

Looks like the numbers are trending down from last week, which is surprising considering the recent reviews it's been getting from advanced screenings.

Its over concern that the huge opening of John Wick 4 will suppress D&D's numbers. Personally I think there isn't that much overlap between them, and among what there is, folks will see both.

 

[Zardnaar]

Its over concern that the huge opening of John Wick 4 will suppress D&D's numbers. Personally I think there isn't that much overlap between them, and among what there is, folks will see both.

I thunk tgey may gave over estimated the demand fir a D&D movie.

Think my estimate was 37 million.

Early screenings also got all the hardcire fans early.

 

[CleverNickName]

According to this article from The Filmik, "experts" predict a debut of $30-35 million in North America.

Although the film has received an excellent critical response, the buzz surrounding it is only decent, suggesting that the audience is not very interested in the film— indicating that it will have an average opening. Experts predict a debut of around $30-35 million from ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ over 3600+ theaters in North America, which is not exceptional for a high-budget film. Moreover, it’s worth noting that ‘John Wick: Chapter 4’ is also generating a lot of attention at the box office, which is likely to have an impact on ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’— in turn, will likely result in even lower numbers for the film’s opening.

This is good news for @Mort ($30M), @The Myopic Sniper ($33M), @Rabulias ($34M), and @overgeeked ($35M), but not great for the rest of us...

Ah well. Like Abraham Lincoln said, "Don't believe everything you read on the internet." We'll find out what these "experts" are made of soon enough...maybe as early as this time next week!

The full article:

Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction: Set for $30 Million Debut - The Filmik

Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction: Experts predict a debut of around $30-35 million from 'Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves' over 3800+ theaters in North America, which is not exceptional for a high-budget film.

www.thefilmik.com

 

[OB1]

@CleverNickName yeah, it's looking like the above is probably where it will come in this weekend. The good news is that it could end up playing like the latest Puss in Boots, which had a very soft opening ($13M) but kept chugging along on word of mouth and ended up with a very respectable $184M domestic and nearly $500M worldwide total. D&D won't have the 3 months PiB had to get to there, but with a $35M opening it should at the very least hit $100M domestic by the end of April.

It looks like the marketing so far just hasn't broken thru to the non-D&D playing crowd. What I really can't understand is why they haven't shown the primary plot driver of the film

Spoiler: Spoiler

Chris Pine working to rescue his daughter

which seems like something that would bring in a wider audience. Maybe they're holding that for after opening weekend?

Either that or the forecast models are predicated on the audience being over 25 and male, and the under 25 and female crowd will double the current projection and leave me as the winner!

 

[Zardnaar]

According to this article from The Filmik, "experts" predict a debut of $30-35 million in North America.



This is good news for @Mort ($30M), @The Myopic Sniper ($33M), @Rabulias ($34M), and @overgeeked ($35M), but not great for the rest of us...

Ah well. Like Abraham Lincoln said, "Don't believe everything you read on the internet." We'll find out what these "experts" are made of soon enough...maybe as early as this time next week!

The full article:

Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction: Set for $30 Million Debut - The Filmik

Dungeons & Dragons Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction: Experts predict a debut of around $30-35 million from 'Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves' over 3800+ theaters in North America, which is not exceptional for a high-budget film.

www.thefilmik.com

Places like r/box-office have been projecting a loss/flop for weeks and the trending numbers weren't thst good weeks ago either.

Woukd have mentioned it here but people put air quotes around the word expert and mods have called it pseudo science.
We'll see who's right or wrong in a few days.

My guess was something like 34 567890 opening weekend. I just took the projections and lopped a third off and typed the numbers in order.

Seems it might come in lower than that including the figures from the early screening.

If that pans out looks like its going to get emasculated at the box office and it's a flop.

Outside D&D circles there's just not that much buzz and even the usual experts barely roused themselves to dump all over it.

 

[bedir than]

Outside D&D circles there's just not that much buzz and even the usual experts barely roused themselves to dump all over it.

Outside of D&D circles they've had cast on every late night show this week and there are now 107 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes (back up to 91%).

 

[Parmandur]

Places like r/box-office have been projecting a loss/flop for weeks and the trending numbers weren't thst good weeks ago either.

Woukd have mentioned it here but people put air quotes around the word expert and mods have called it pseudo science.
We'll see who's right or wrong in a few days.

My guess was something like 34 567890 opening weekend. I just took the projections and lopped a third off and typed the numbers in order.

Seems it might come in lower than that including the figures from the early screening.

If that pans out looks like its going to get emasculated at the box office and it's a flop.

Outside D&D circles there's just not that much buzz and even the usual experts barely roused themselves to dump all over it.

Box office tracking is one of my personal geek out thinfs...and the scare quotes are called for here. Movies get wildly overestimated and underestimated all the time.

 

[Zardnaar]

Box office tracking is one of my personal geek out thinfs...and the scare quotes are called for here. Movies get wildly overestimated and underestimated all the time.

They do. My estimate (which could be wrong) was on the lower side due to various negative factors.
We'll find out soon.