D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!
- Thread starter CleverNickName
- Start date
mamba
Hero
They did not think that strategy through
CleverNickName
Limit Break Dancing
Not yet. The numbers reported on BoxOfficeMojo are only estimates. I'll probably call it on Wednesday, to give the theaters plenty of time to report their weekend ticket sales. I don't want to announce a winner, only to have to change it a few hours later.
Whizbang Dustyboots
Gnometown Hero
Very, very few films make their entire investment back on opening weekend. And if something looks like it's going to be that big of a hit, the studio will probably throw more marketing at it anyway, raising the investment total.
Cergorach
The Laughing One
Wow! They made a D&D movie that people actually went to watch, must have been nothing better to watch this weekend (@Reddit John Wick fans! )...
But now we know how to make a D&D movie that makes $150M... Spend $300M!
Or has Chris Pine's acting gotten better since his last movie?
)...But now we know how to make a D&D movie that makes $150M... Spend $300M!
Or has Chris Pine's acting gotten better since his last movie?
GMforPowergamers
Legend
@Plaguescarred - $39,142,079
-------------estimated $38,500,000 on April 2
@fettpett - $38,000,000
way to go guys...
-------------estimated $38,500,000 on April 2
@fettpett - $38,000,000
way to go guys...
dave2008
Legend
It seems to me some people missed the "opening weekend" part of the contest!It's been a long time since I've done one of these little guessing games, so I think we're overdue. Let's get this party started!
As we all know, the new D&D Movie, "Honor Among Thieves," is scheduled to be released in theaters on March 31st, 2023. Some folks here think it's going to be a smash hit, others think it's going to be a flop, and I think it'll be somewhere in between. In fact, there's a whole other thread about that, right over here at this elegant and finely-crafted hyperlink.
So let's have a little fun with that speculation, shall we? I ask you, gentle reader: how much money do you think this movie is going to make on opening weekend? Post your guess in this thread, and maybe win a prize!
The Rules
- To play, simply post in this thread with your prediction of the final domestic box office earnings for the opening weekend only, for "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves." No purchase necessary, some restrictions apply, void where prohibited, etc.
- Your guess must be in U.S. Dollar amounts ($USD).
- You must post your guess before the movie opens in theaters. For the purpose of this contest, all votes posted after 11:59 p.m. PST on March 30th, will be ignored.
- The person who comes closest to the final dollar amount without going over will win the prize. Just like on "The Price Is Right."
- In the unlikely event of a tie, the person who posted the correct amount first will win.
- If you post more than one guess, or if you edit your post, you will be disqualified.
- For the purpose of this contest, the final dollar count from opening weekend will be the one posted to the Box Office Mojo website, for Domestic earnings, for that weekend. No other reporting agency or dollar amount will be used in this contest.
The Prize
The winner will receive a £25 gift certificate to the EN Publishing store, good for the purchase of any of their fine products.
EN Publishing: Producers of fine tabletop roleplaying games
Producers of fine tabletop roleplaying games and supplements.enpublishingrpg.com
When the box office results are released for the opening weekend (probably sometime in the week after), I will reach out to the winner by private message and swap information. Then I'll send you the coupon code for your £25 gift certificate to the EN Publishing store.
So post your best guess, and good luck! May the odds be ever in your favor!
For Comparison
Here are some notable D&D-esque movies across my lifetime.
- "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" (1975) grossed $1.83M on its domestic opening weekend, which would be about $10.2M today.
- "Excalibur" (1981) grossed $4.52 million over its domestic opening weekend...that's about $14.9M today.
- "Conan the Barbarian" (1982), grossed $9.5 million over its opening weekend. Adjusted for today's dollar, $29.5M.
- "The Sword and the Sorcerer" (1982) grossed $1.8M on opening weekend, or $5.6M here in 2023.
- "Krull" (1983) earned $5.47 million on opening weekend, which is about $16.4M today when adjusted for inflation.
- "Labyrinth" (1986), earned $3.5 million on opening weekend...about $9.7M in 2023 dollars.
- "Legend" (also 1986), grossed over $4.3 million on its opening weekend...about $11.6M today.
- "Willow" (1988) earned $8.3 million on its opening weekend. Adjusted for today, that's $21.1M.
- "Dungeons and Dragons" (2000) grossed $7.2 million over its opening weekend, which is about $12.6M in today's money.
- "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (2001) grossed $47.2 on its opening weekend, which would be $79.8M today.
- A year later in 2002, "The Two Towers" would earn $62.0 million on its opening weekend, about $103.1 million today.
- "Dungeons & Dragons: Wrath of the Dragon God" (2005) somehow managed to gross $1.75 million dollars, or about $2.7 million here in 2023.
ROSTER OF PARTICIPANTS
@Henadic Theologian - $400,000,000
@Slit518 - $165,000,000
@Parmandur - $149,000,000
@nevin - $131,000,000
@Swarmkeeper - $106,000,00
@Mistwell - $105,000,000
@TarionzCousin - $102,300,000
@gban007 - $100,000,000
@GMforPowergamers - $98,600,000
@doctorbadwolf - $96,500,000
@FitzTheRuke - $92,500,000
@TheSword - $87,000,000
@elawai - $86,000,000
@M_Natas - $79,000,000
@OB1 - $78,000,000
@billd91 - $75,000,000
@Lazvon - $72,000,000
@Steampunkette - $69,000,000 (nice)
@Hatmatter - $68,144,000
@jasper - $66,666,666
@Lanefan - $64,000,000
@GreyLord - $62,000,000
@Mull Ponders - $60,000,000
@Dausuul - $59,597,987.99
@toucanbuzz - $59,000,000
@Gradine - $57,500,000
@Ibrandul - $55,000,000
@Clint_L - $53,000,000
@Mr. Wilson - $52,000,000
@Jer - $50,000,000
@Haplo781 - $49,000,000
@Snarf Zagyg - $48,000,000
@Bravesteel25 - $47,000,000
@mamba - $46,500,000
@Jolly Ruby - $44,300,000
@Eyes of Nine - $44,000,000
@Alzrius - $43,000,000
@wedgeski - $42,512,313
@Whizbang Dustyboots - $40,100,000
@Plaguescarred - $39,142,079
-------------estimated $38,500,000 on April 2
@fettpett - $38,000,000
@UngeheuerLich - $37,504,291
@LordEntrails - $36,100,000
@Deset Gled - $36,000,000
@overgeeked - $35,000,000
@Zardnaar - $34,456,789
@Rabulias - $34,000,000
@The Myopic Sniper - $33,000,000
@Mort - $30,000,000
----------------estimated $28,500,000 on April 1
@EthanSental - $28,000,000
@Ruin Explorer - $23,000,000
@Swedish Chef - $22,500,000
@Birmy - $19,100,000
@el-remmen - $17,350,001
@CleverNickName - $17,350,000
----------------estimated $15,400,000 on March 31
@Stormonu - $12,350,000
@Sabathius42 - $9,250,000
@Longspeak - $4,302,601.50
@Cergorach - $2,100,000
CleverNickName
Limit Break Dancing
The opening weekend numbers are still listed as "Estimated" on the BoxOfficeMojo website. So there's no winner just yet! I'll post an update as soon as I get one.
Clint_L
Hero
I enjoyed the movie and wish it had a bigger opening weekend - I want it to do well because I want a sequel. Not that this was a terrible opening weekend, but it does reveal the relative weakness of the brand in the public consciousness - everyone might know what D&D is in broad terms, but it is still a niche hobby that doesn't immediately shout "you need to see this!" to the average movie-goer.
It is interesting to compare this film's opening to what happens with the Super Mario movie. Both are based on popular game franchises and both are following much-maligned predecessor films. The D&D film had great early reviews and advanced screening, but will struggle to pass $40 million on its opening. The Super Mario movie only just lifted its embargo on early reactions (largely positive, but early reactions are basically always largely positive) and still doesn't have official reviews out, yet is tracking north of $125 million for this weekend. That's a brand!
Hopefully Honour Among Thieves garners enough to earn a sequel and builds a following through streaming services. It's a quality film, so I think it will get plenty of attention when folks can watch it for free at home.
It is interesting to compare this film's opening to what happens with the Super Mario movie. Both are based on popular game franchises and both are following much-maligned predecessor films. The D&D film had great early reviews and advanced screening, but will struggle to pass $40 million on its opening. The Super Mario movie only just lifted its embargo on early reactions (largely positive, but early reactions are basically always largely positive) and still doesn't have official reviews out, yet is tracking north of $125 million for this weekend. That's a brand!
Hopefully Honour Among Thieves garners enough to earn a sequel and builds a following through streaming services. It's a quality film, so I think it will get plenty of attention when folks can watch it for free at home.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
I mean, Mario is one of the biggest brands on Earth.
bedir than
Hero
It's odd framing that beating the studio's expectations by ten percent is considered a failure.
Do people think the studio expected failure?
Do people think the studio expected failure?
Parmandur
Book-Friend
Yeah, all the trade magazines are treating this as a success, it's the D&D fans poo-pooing it...?
I said it before as a joke, but I'm serious when I say that the media can report anything as a failure. World of Warcraft made $270 million in profit, 2.7 times it's budget, and it still got reported as a "flop". Box Office: 'Warcraft' Is A $430 Million Flop
On a similar note, here's an article from 2011 about how Return of the Jedi and Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix are both economic failures: How Hollywood Accounting Can Make a $450 Million Movie 'Unprofitable'
Any time some one brings up "marketing costs", "studio expectations", or "other expenses", rest assured that the numbers are 100% made up.
Clint_L
Hero
It's complicated, and a lot to do with expectations. This was an extremely risky film for a studio to put that kind of money into, and it only happened because Hasbro underwrote half the cost. So it doesn't have to make as much as you might think for Paramount to make a profit, and for Hasbro this is partly about building up the D&D brand, so it is an investment in their future. Which is laudable! And for an unknown franchise (to the movie-going public) this is a good opening, even though it would be a disaster for, say, a Marvel movie (to put in context, Iron Man launched the MCU with a $98 million opening. In 2008. But superhero films were already an established genre at that point).
Launching a new film brand, especially for a relatively underserved genre, is hard to do. But if the film is good (and this one is), it can make money over time and create the conditions for more profitable sequels. So this film is mostly about the future.
bedir than
Hero
Sure!
I'm talking about the people here who are insisting that the movie has failed when it did better than what the studio expected it to do (per the studio leaks weeks prior).
That's not about Hollywood math. That's about D&D fans on this forum hating on things
Undrave
Legend
Mario is more recognizable than Mickey Mouse. In fact, I still don’t understand why they felt the need to hire Chris Pratt to play Mario?! Mario is more popular than Chris Pratt! They didn’t need to pay Chris Pratt money to get more buzz on a MARIO movie?? The rest of the cast is more the range I would have went with. They’re well known but not MCU budget well known.
Next weekend is also Easter so that'll probably inflate numbers.
And there was a lot of tornados over the weekend and power outage, that can't have helped.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
So, here's the thing about Nintendo: they care about the Japanese market first and foremost, and while they are happy to localize they are not that focused on it (Breath of the Wild's Japanese voice acting and writing are noticably better than the english localization). On the other hand, Illumination is big on celebrity stunt casting for cvoices. But, if you look at the Japanese voice cast before this upcoming movie, it's not goofy celebrity stunt casting: it's very cool veteran Anime voice actors. If Illumination was doing the English voice cast the same way that the Japanese side is being handled, people like the Critical Role crew would be in there instead of Chris Pratt.
Parmandur
Book-Friend
Specifically about Warcraft: 2.7 times the budget is around breakeven territory for the studio, usually, not even using funny math because of the cuts theaters and distributors take. Usually, a movie can make it back thru merchandising and such, but Warcraft didn't inspire many viewers to go out and buy toys or whatever. Batman & Robin, as another wxample, actually made kids to stop buying Batman toys, so it lost WB money even though the film was profitable.in the face of it.
Honor Among Thieves, however, has cute chubby Lumpkin dragon plushies that are very attractive.
