D&D 5E Is 5e's Success Actually Bad for Other Games?

[Kurotowa]

I don't believe any RPG should dominate the market and the cultural consciousness of the hobby as much as D&D does.

There will always be a dominant player in the field, because the Network Effect is a real thing. A market leader's value goes up the more people are plugged into the same shared network; it means everyone is linked together and not having to learn six different system at once. It's the same reason Facebook and Reddit dominate their fields as well. If D&D were to magically vanish tomorrow then it just turns into a scrum to see who the new predominant RPG is.

 

[Zardnaar]

There will always be a dominant player in the field, because the Network Effect is a real thing. A market leader's value goes up the more people are plugged into the same shared network; it means everyone is linked together and not having to learn six different system at once. It's the same reason Facebook and Reddit dominate their fields as well. If D&D were to magically vanish tomorrow then it just turns into a scrum to see who the new predominant RPG is.

Easy answer their Paizo but you would return to around 2013 at best losing around 75% of the RPG market.

Probably more as Paizo was a big fish in small pond. Comparatively they're a lot smaller now. I suspect they lost a large amount to 5E.

 

[MatthewJHanson]

No. Most of 5e's dominance is from bringing in new players, not from cannibalizing other games. Some of those players will go on to explore other systems. '

(I could see an argument that Pathfinder got hurt, because that was just D&D by a different name, but I don't imagine a lot of people who had a regular Call of Cthulu game put it down because 5e came out).

 

[Manbearcat]

I think it's also due to so many new people entering since 5e that haven't had a look at 4e and are now doing so. I think that translates to other versions and games too. I'm in Matt's streams a lot and see a lot of new folks discovering 4e.

My guess is the 4e resurgence is multivariate:

1) No present scorched earth campaign by edition warriors hell bent on a misinformation campaign and making the hobby an insufferable, miserable place at all costs.

2) 5e’s success brining interest from younger gamers who first tried 5e (and are therefore untouched by prior zeitgeist and cultural conflict).

3) The success of indie games like Dungeon World but particularly Blades in the Dark (which can teach people to successfully run Skill Challenges because the tech and GMing principles and player Best Practices are similar).

4) (Actual) Online Tools…the kind they were hoping for 4e at release.

 

[darjr]

@Manbearcat interesting run down. Though I think the naer do wells are busily working on 1, but I do think your right.

Also, now that you mention it, I don't see a lot of skill challenges being run. Not in any of the recent popular 4e games that seem to be a part of this rebirth. I could have missed them. I'm not sure I'd blame the players for the failure of 4e skill challenges either. But I do agree about those other games possibly helping. Though most of the new 4e folks I see are 5e players, but I'm not seeing the whole picture.

and as to point 4, yea. It's worlds of difference. A huge leap in the technology available. I think that's super easy to overlook.

 

[Manbearcat]

If Critical Role, as presently formulated, were to jump ship from 5e and start playing Mouse Guard or Blades in the Dark or Stonetop…

Does anyone actually believe that the new game that Critical Role is playing wouldn’t suddenly see a significant uptick in their purchase and play?

Zeitgeist and stigma in macro culture is such a massive feedback loop. In TTRPGs? It’s overwhelming.

 

[darjr]

If Critical Role, as presently formulated, were to jump ship from 5e and start playing Mouse Guard or Blades in the Dark or Stonetop…

Does anyone actually believe that the new game that Critical Role is playing wouldn’t suddenly see a significant uptick in their purchase and play?

Zeitgeist and stigma in macro culture is such a massive feedback loop. In TTRPGs? It’s overwhelming.

Seeing what happened to Call of Cthulhu I have NO DOUBT that if they switched their main game it would have a HUGE boost. How much? I dunno. I wouldn't be surprised if it gave 2nd place a run for it's money or surpassed it by a long ways. I might believe it's possible it could surpass D&D, but I think that's a long shot.

 

[darjr]

Zeitgeist and stigma in macro culture is such a massive feedback loop. In TTRPGs? It’s overwhelming.

Yea. I think in some ways it's bad for the hobby and industry. I mean it's probably hard to see, but the monoculture can't be good long term. I wonder if anyone within WotC ever worries about this very topic? If anyone considers doing something really substantive to boost play in other games out of forward looking survival instinct. Or even just cause it may be a good thing to do for the health of the industry.

I wonder if an argument could be made to WotC or Hasbro that, long term, sales would be better if there were a healthier eco system of different games/companies? Wasn't this part of the argument for the OGL? And if WotC were to be convinced, what could they do about it?

 

[Parmandur]

Yea. I think in some ways it's bad for the hobby and industry. I mean it's probably hard to see, but the monoculture can't be good long term. I wonder if anyone within WotC ever worries about this very topic? If anyone considers doing something really substantive to boost play in other games out of forward looking survival instinct. Or even just cause it may be a good thing to do for the health of the industry.

I wonder if an argument could be made to WotC or Hasbro that, long term, sales would be better if there were a healthier eco system of different games/companies? Wasn't this part of the argument for the OGL? And if WotC were to be convinced, what could they do about it?

I thought the point of the OGL was to create a monoculture, by incetivizing third parties to make material that worked with D&D.

 

[Steampunkette]

We need Wil Wheaton back. Damn Nerd and Sundry ruining Tabletop...