D&D 5E Monks Suck

His numbers are off.

He rounded up to 3 hits from a less than 50 percent hit chance with 5 attacks (so it should have been 2 hits).

Reduced by my deflect arrows of course, so basically 1 hit (and a point of damage)

And if he has a bag of bows, then I'll retcon my first action (I went first thanks to Alert and +4 Dex) to using flurry and hitting him twice instead for that turn (4 attacks at a greater than 50 percent chance to hit).

That's fine you can retcon your first action. But if we're not rolling, let's agree to use averages, not modes. So your first turn was to use flurry and agile parry, correct? My first turn assumed agile parry so if you wouldn't have done that then I need to recalculate.

You have 55% to hit, four unarmed strikes at 1d6+4, for 16.5 damage (I rounded my damage down, but I'll give you the benefit of rounding error and we'll say 17). So I'm at 32, you're at 14, and you're up for your second turn.

And by the way, I only used precision on 40% of attacks on average, which is 2, so I have two superiority dice left.
 

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I hit 5/12 of the time. Overall 47% of my attacks hit. With 5 attacks at 16.5 damage per hit, that's an average of 39 damage,
but one attack is deflected, reducing the damage by 14.5. So all together, we'll call it 24 damage for the turn, and the monk is up.

OK. Whatever.

Before we do that, can we also calculate your damage on turn 1 before you did all this, seeing as if I cant attack your weapons, I attack you?

4 attacks with flurry (+7 vs AC 17) hit on 10's. Bit fiddly with the requirement to do sword/ fist but lets say 2 with Sword (1d10+4) and two with Fist (1d6+4) is that not 55 percent of 34 so I do roughly 19 points of damage to you before you do the above.

I now (on my turn) flurry and Stun (twice odds are I generate 2 hits from the flurry). Its another 19 points of damage (you've now taken around 38 damage) and odds are you're now stunned, am I correct?
 




If you're using your longsword you can't use agile parry.

He can use the sword for one of the two attacks. (I don't think, from RAW, that the unarmed attacks as part of flurry qualify, because they're not part of the attack action.)
 





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