D&D Movie/TV New D&D Movie: July 23rd 2021

It's official - the new Dungeons & Dragons movie is coming, and it's coming in four years - July 23rd, 2021, as announced by Paramount.

We already know that the movie will be produced by the Lego Movie's Roy Lee, that it will be directed by Rob Letterman (Goosebumps, Monsters vs. Aliens, Shark Tale). Originally scripted by David Leslie Johnson (Wrath of the Titans), it's now being written by Joe Manganelio, might be Dragonlance and then again might feature the Yawning Portal, and will adopt a Guardians of the Galaxy tone. Oh, and that we should take everything I just said with a pinch of salt as the movie appears have jumped from WB to Paramount at some point in the process!

 

[oknazevad]

Yes. The break even for the film is estimated at $750 million. See https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/11/24/justice-league-disappointing-holiday-box-office-makes-any-fantastic-beasts-comparisons-moot/#52b690df48f5

 

[robus]

Yes. The break even for the film is estimated at $750 million. See https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2017/11/24/justice-league-disappointing-holiday-box-office-makes-any-fantastic-beasts-comparisons-moot/#52b690df48f5

The global marketing campaigns for these movies often match the production in terms of cost. It’s incredible!

 

[ArchfiendBobbie]

Yes. The break even for the film is estimated at $750 million. See https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...ntastic-beasts-comparisons-moot/#52b690df48f5

I'll admit I don't check Forbes much. That website gives my virus scanner fits.

Having an advertising budget of 150% of your production budget is a massive screw-up. The movie was expensive to make, but it wasn't expensive enough they should not already be in the black. Even more so since most of the examinations I saw when people were first saying it was failing were talking a break even of $600 million.

The movie might break even by the time it leaves theaters, but I have to admit that it was a bad example.

 

[Oofta]

I'll admit I don't check Forbes much. That website gives my virus scanner fits.

Having an advertising budget of 150% of your production budget is a massive screw-up. The movie was expensive to make, but it wasn't expensive enough they should not already be in the black. Even more so since most of the examinations I saw when people were first saying it was failing were talking a break even of $600 million.

The movie might break even by the time it leaves theaters, but I have to admit that it was a bad example.

I also wouldn't discount movie studio shenanigans when it come to calculating profit. Basically the studios frequently make a lot of money off of movies but use accounting tricks so that they don't have to share profits.

But the rule of thumb? A movie has to make double it's production cost to be considered "profitable".

 

[LordEntrails]

The rule of thumb is that critical opinion will mean plus or minus ~10% to the bottom line: it is more lucerative to have movies that have popular appeal but critical approval, which is why film companies care and try to hit both. The DCEU movies that didn't have critical approval all made less than Wonder Woman, which wowed the critics. 10% is an awfully large amount of money on the line for blockbusters. The conventional wisdom is that even flashy blockbusters that are critic proof (Michael Bay) would make even more money if critics channelled more people to them.

Thanks for this. Very userful.

I think it supports the premise that critical review is important, but not nearly as important as populous approval.

Now for the consideration of how approval of a movie may impact the D&D brand.
I think we can assume that critical approval of the movie will impact the brand to the same degree (or arguably much less) of about 10%. Therefore once again populous approval of the movie is going to be the major driver for brand impact. How is the movie going to impact the brand?

Will it bring in more new players? Will it result in more employees for WotC working on more products? Will it result in new or increased social trends towards "nerd", specifically role-playing, cultural acceptance?

What might be the impacts, good and bad, of increasing the social acceptance of the hobby?

Perhaps their have been studies on how Fifty Shades has impacted the BDSM community and similar conclusions could be drawn?

 

[ArchfiendBobbie]

I also wouldn't discount movie studio shenanigans when it come to calculating profit. Basically the studios frequently make a lot of money off of movies but use accounting tricks so that they don't have to share profits.

But the rule of thumb? A movie has to make double it's production cost to be considered "profitable".

I want to know where Forbes is getting $750 million from. Justice League, according to every source I can find, had a production cost of $300 million. By rule of thumb, it's already profitable. The only way they could require $750 million to be profitable is if they had an advertising budget of $450 million.

I'm definitely calling shenanigans on this one.

 

[Oofta]

I want to know where Forbes is getting $750 million from. Justice League, according to every source I can find, had a production cost of $300 million. By rule of thumb, it's already profitable. The only way they could require $750 million to be profitable is if they had an advertising budget of $450 million.

I'm definitely calling shenanigans on this one.

Yeah, makes you wonder if someone had agreed to a profit sharing compensation clause.

 

[bmfrosty]

Does this mean that all the rights problems have been sorted out?

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

I want to know where Forbes is getting $750 million from. Justice League, according to every source I can find, had a production cost of $300 million. By rule of thumb, it's already profitable. The only way they could require $750 million to be profitable is if they had an advertising budget of $450 million.

I'm definitely calling shenanigans on this one.

You do know that the ticket sales numbers reported are before the movie theaters get their cut of ticket sales, right? Current estimates give an average of 60% of US sales and anywhere from 20-40% of foreign sales, depending on country, goes to the movie studio, so for big blockbusters we can figure an average of 50% overall. That means a movie that cost $300 million to make needs to sell $600 million in tickets to break even on production costs, and that does not even cover the advertising costs. A movie like Justice League could have easily cost $150 million in marketing worldwide, so that would make it about $750 million to break even between ticket sales, dvd sales, pay-per-view, etc.

 

[Morrus]

Does this mean that all the rights problems have been sorted out?

Back in the summer of 2015!

http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...Produced-By-Lego-Movie-s-Roy-Lee#.WkVMpiN0dTZ

 

[Parmandur]

I want to know where Forbes is getting $750 million from. Justice League, according to every source I can find, had a production cost of $300 million. By rule of thumb, it's already profitable. The only way they could require $750 million to be profitable is if they had an advertising budget of $450 million.

I'm definitely calling shenanigans on this one.

Warner Bros. will be fine, but yet heads are rolling for a reason.

Sent from my [device_name] using EN World mobile app

 

[ArchfiendBobbie]

You do know that the ticket sales numbers reported are before the movie theaters get their cut of ticket sales, right? Current estimates give an average of 60% of US sales and anywhere from 20-40% of foreign sales, depending on country, goes to the movie studio, so for big blockbusters we can figure an average of 50% overall. That means a movie that cost $300 million to make needs to sell $600 million in tickets to break even on production costs, and that does not even cover the advertising costs. A movie like Justice League could have easily cost $150 million in marketing worldwide, so that would make it about $750 million to break even between ticket sales, dvd sales, pay-per-view, etc.

Which does not track with how anyone else has been judging whether or not a movie is profitable, including Forbes.

 

[Kaodi]

They should have gone with Supergirl rather than bringing back Superman. You know, among other things.

 

[Quartz]

So I've skipped over 250 messages; so sue me..

I think the next D&D movie needs to channel Harry Potter for its magic. Depending upon the target audience, it could be anywhere from Game of Thrones to Excalibur to Your Highness, all crossed with Harry Potter. Spells should zap back and forth, splashing on shields and armour. Personally, I would go for Your Highness.

 

[Azzy]

Perhaps their have been studies on how Fifty Shades has impacted the BDSM community and similar conclusions could be drawn?

I don't know about studies, but the BDSM community was rather united in reviling the Fifty Shades movies.

 

[flametitan]

So I've skipped over 250 messages; so sue me..

I think the next D&D movie needs to channel Harry Potter for its magic. Depending upon the target audience, it could be anywhere from Game of Thrones to Excalibur to Your Highness, all crossed with Harry Potter. Spells should zap back and forth, splashing on shields and armour. Personally, I would go for Your Highness.

I'm guessing this depends on what we mean by "spells zapping back and forth". I still want the magic to be recognizably D&D in the way it affects the battle. Grease being splashed onto the ground; fireballs exploding in the distance; Stinking clouds being used with gusts of wind to try and disperse them.

 

[LordEntrails]

I don't know about studies, but the BDSM community was rather united in reviling the Fifty Shades movies.

Like they were against "The Secretary". But, imo, I think both movies have had positive impacts on how the BDSM community is perceived by outsiders. though I don't know of any scientific evidence either way.

So, if the movie is reviled by the community, but viewed favorable by outsiders and leads those outsiders to view the minority in a positive light, is that a good thing?

 

[ArchfiendBobbie]

Like they were against "The Secretary". But, imo, I think both movies have had positive impacts on how the BDSM community is perceived by outsiders. though I don't know of any scientific evidence either way.

So, if the movie is reviled by the community, but viewed favorable by outsiders and leads those outsiders to view the minority in a positive light, is that a good thing?

In this case? No. A reviled movie like those two tend to result in people getting seriously injured or in very abusive relationships if they are not wise enough to separate fact from fiction, and in this scenario far too many people are definitely not.

BDSM is lifestyle where ignorance or, worse, false information can seriously injure or even kill you. That is why "Safe" is the first part of the standard "Safe. Sane. Consentual" standard.

DnD is an entirely different scenario.

Fifty Shades and Secretary really are not good examples for this kind of argument.

 

[LordEntrails]

...
Fifty Shades and Secretary really are not good examples for this kind of argument.

Rather than getting caught up in the example, if the D&D movie is reviled by the D&D community, but viewed favorable by outsiders and leads those outsiders to view the D&D players in a positive light, is that a good thing?

 

[ArchfiendBobbie]

Rather than getting caught up in the example, if the D&D movie is reviled by the D&D community, but viewed favorable by outsiders and leads those outsiders to view the D&D players in a positive light, is that a good thing?

Okay, moving beyond that... DnD is a niche hobby, pretty much. It would need to impress people a lot. And, well, when it comes to niche hobbies and niche franchises... Take a look at the 2016 Ghostbusters movie as an example of how that can very much work against us.

Having your core fanbase hate you is risky. Very risky. Because at the end of the day, those are the people you rely on for guaranteed sales. If they are not buying, you risk failing hard. Especially if there is a lot of controversy because the fanbase hates your product and is very vocal. And when have DnD fans not been vocal?