Erik Mona said:
I predict, without reservation, that 4E will be a fundamentally more successful business based on what I've seen.
This is something I have begun to really wonder about. I am convinced a lot of 4E PHs will be sold, sure, at least the 2008 iteration.
But beyond that I am wary of these predictions. One thing that seems not to taken into consideration are DMs specifically.
Without a DM to run a game, there is no game. And this change is especially sensitive to DMs for 2 reasons.
1) Investment of cash for materials
Pretty much without exception DMs spend the lion's share of money on the game, frequently spending more than everyone else in the group combined.
Who is most invested in 3E?
2) Investment of time in learning the rules
The DM is the final arbiter of the game, which means he/she is constantly called upon to make rules judgements. A large part of a DM's "legitimacy" is the ability to make good consistent rules calls, which means knowing the rules well. With the complexity of the 3E ruleset, most DMs spent a lot of time mastering these rules (one of the goals of 3E, right?).
These investments (time and money) are some of the most fundamental one can make. These investments are in disproportionate degree made by DMs, and without DMs you don't have a game.
And who gets angriest about change and loss of investment? Those who have invested the most.
I think there is a very real prospect of a DM revolt, boiling down to money and time. Sure, some will unthinkingly switch right over. I have seen it happen, and I am sure this time will be no exception. Some will thinkingly switch over. And some won't. The real question is what will the proportions be.
OK, so thats just consideration of switching from the old edition.
Now, switching to the new edition.
Eliminating many of the bad rules is definitely an improvement, and making them an official part of the rules means people effectively can't argue with it. Good enough so far.
But then we get to a new PH every year. And a new DMG. And MM. And who knows what else.
And it gets worse from there, with the monetizing of everything. The prospect of digital collectable minis is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard. I have minis I have had TWENTY years now in my closet, that I used recently. Anyone who thinks I am spending $10-$20 for a collectable digital mini has gone off the deep end.
Collectable minis are bad enough, requiring me to go to the secondary market to get what I want, and yeah, Reaper is getting even more of my business now. But virtual? No. Not unless its free.
I have never seen the level of purchasing fatigue we have now with 3/3.5 D&D. And now they are taking it to the next level. This feels like a breaking point to me. Of course, everyone has different tolerances, so there isn't going to be a single day where 500,000 gamers all say, "I am done". But, I have seen things die over a period of years before and there is no one single point where it happens, but one day you look up and suddenly wonder to yourself "Where the heck did everyone go?"
The sense I am getting is D&D has become fully corporate.
It is starting to look to me like "MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY"
That makes me feel insulted and exploited. But more than that, it tells me I will never have complete core set of rules, I will always have to buy more, and there will always be new rules to learn.
Thats where I say "I'm done".
I am just not seeing it succeed. I AM keenly interested in watching what happens. Personally, I will be probably getting the 4E PH, and seeing if there are any rules streamlining I can bring back into 3E, on those occasions I run it. I also may just get the SRD, and ignire 4E. Thats about it. But am a 1E/2E grognard, so maybe I am not representative.
Erik Mona said:
I am trying to take all of the support for a 3.5 "legacy" offshoot with a giant grain of salt. I think the majority, perhaps a sizable majority, of the existing audience will convert within a year or two.
What I wonder is how many of these people are DMs.
The topic of DMs is one that seems to be overlooked a lot. When Gary talks about bringing new people in he talks about two things 1) getting complete newbies in to the hobby and 2) getting and training new DMs
Many people forget that second element. Gary is one of the few people who doesn't.
An edition change isn't the same as a whole different new game, but it does have many of the same problems.
And obviously, without 4E DMs, there is no 4E game.
And from what I have seen, DMs are usually the most passionate, or else why would they be willing to spend all the money, all the time mastering rules, and all the time prepping and running games?
Anyway, thats how I am seeing 4E right now.