D&D 5E Quantifying AOE impact


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A creature with a save bonus of +3 would pass 50% of the time. That is your 21 damage case.
A creature with a save bonus of +3 would pass 50% of the time if the save DC is 13, right? Assuming an average save throw roll of 10? But yeah, my math is a train wreck in that table. I forgot to account for auto-fails and auto-success, too. Best to ignore it.

I'm not sure how you managed to get the chart off that far. But more importantly, we are aiming for more grandiose things than calculating fireball DPR.
Good luck! That's definitely not my jam. When it comes to the story vs. the mechanics, I'm going to focus on story every time.
 


A creature with a save bonus of +3 would pass 50% of the time if the save DC is 13, right? Assuming an average save throw roll of 10? But yeah, my math is a train wreck in that table. I forgot to account for auto-fails and auto-success, too. Best to ignore it.

No. A +3 save passes 50% of the time against DC 14. You only have to hit the DC, not exceed it. Rolling an 11+ hits the DC.

I don't think saves auto pass or fail?
 

Assuming a 50% hit rate is also fundamentally flawed.

Attacks or saves. The numbers bloat faster than defenses.

Why are half the people here including you not even talking about the actual point of the thread, but instead are off on some wild tangent about what DC to use to estimate fireball DPR. It doesn't matter.
 

No. A +3 save passes 50% of the time against DC 14. You only have to hit the DC, not exceed it. Rolling an 11+ hits the DC.

I don't think saves auto pass or fail?
Except your numbers are very wrong.


Only average save +3 or higher is con saves and for AoE that generally means cold damage sometimes thunder.
 

Except your numbers are very wrong.


Only average save +3 or higher is con saves and for AoE that generally means cold damage sometimes thunder.

So I said it in that thread and I'll say it again here. Averaging saves over all monsters in the monster manual means nothing. It reveals nothing important about the game because monsters from the monster manual aren't used in 1 to 1 correspondence with each other - EVER.
 

Why are half the people here including you not even talking about the actual point of the thread, but instead are off on some wild tangent about what DC to use to estimate fireball DPR. It doesn't matter.

It dies because you're using flawed data to try and quantify damage.

You can't.

Basically don't target con saves or strength saves and cold is the worst type of AoEvand radiant and force are the best.

Your calculations for example just fall apart later in the game where the typical critter us going to flunk the save 70% of the time not 50%.

Even unoptimised it's over 60%.
 

It dies because you're using flawed data to try and quantify damage.

You can't.

Basically don't target con saves or strength saves and cold is the worst type of AoEvand radiant and force are the best.

Your calculations for example just fall apart later in the game where the typical critter us going to flunk the save 70% if the time not 50%.

Every critter could flunk the save 100% of the time or pass it 100% of the time and it wouldn't impact anything of importance in this thread.
 

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