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(He, Him)
It seems like there's a possible temporal straight lineElaborating on my point not far upthread, that inferences like If X is a disputed proposition of physics, and Einstein conjectured it to be true, then it is more likely to be true than one might otherwise suspect are sound:
The following counterfactual claims can both be true, of the same person at the same time:
(A) If I were to jump out the window, I would plummet to my death.(B) If I were to jump out the window, I would be fine - because I would jump only had I arranged for crash mats to be placed below it, so I didn't get hurt by the fall.
The difference between, when evaluated as true, is the degree of time and change over which the evaluation takes place: for (A), the time of evaluation is the immediate context of the utterance; whereas for (B), the time of evaluation stretches back into the past.
(I'm taking the examples from here: https://academic.oup.com/mind/article-abstract/108/431/427/985811)
We can create parallels for the climbing case:
(C) If I were to fall while climbing, I would have lost my grip immediately before falling.(D) I am strong, so if I were to fall while climbing, it would only be if I had been careless, allowing my rope to run over a sharp edge and thus be severed.
Which sorts of narrations are permitted in RPGing? How do they relate to the resolution framework?
If time must always run forward in narration as it does in the fiction, then (A) and (C) are OK, but (B) and (D) are ruled out. (C) is OK, because the failed roll can be correlated with the loss of grip, and then the fall occurs and is resolved. But (D) is ruled out, because when the roll is failed D reaches back into the fiction's past, and the way the character has laid their rope, to explain the fall.
(D') I am strong so if I were to fall while climbing, my rope would have run over a sharp edge and been severed immediately before falling
Arranging crash mats to be placed below implies an earlier action must have taken place. My rope running over a sharp edge is to do with the state of affairs now. Generally, I think (A) contains some unstated terms that account for plummeting to my death, beyond only that I jumped out of the window. For example(B') If I were to jump out the window, I would be fine - because I live on the ground floor
(A) implies unstated causes like gravity and that the window is high enough that defenestrating oneself would be fatal. Consider(A') If I were to jump out the window, I would plummet to my death - because I live in a tenth floor apartment and am subject to gravity
(B') and (A') seem equivalent to me, in terms of temporal straight lines.I don't think the runes example changes temporality. The character expresses an informed hope that the runes will indicate a way out. It turns out that hope was right. Any disconnect is over whether the roll represents their luck or their expertise? I think either can be justified. Both, might be the best answer. As you point out, an expert in such things has a better hope than me of making a conjecture that turns out to be right.
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