Round 17 IS OVER

[Gez]

(Psst...BTW, if you have a 20% chance to hit with one shot, 3 shots does not equal a 60% chance. Its only 20% each.)

Three shots with a 20% chance to hit for each shot results in:
20% × 20% × 20% chance of all three hitting, so 0.8% of triple damage.
(20% × 20% × 80%) + (20% × 80% × 20%) + (80% × 20% × 20%) of two of the shots hitting, so 9.6% of double damage.
(80% × 80% × 20%) + (80% × 20% × 80%) + (20% × 80% × 80%) of one of the shots hitting, so 38.4% of single damage.
80% × 80% × 80% of none of them hitting, so 51.2% chance of no damage.

So, you the average damage will be:

(51.2×0 + 38.4×1 + 9.6×2 + 0.8×3)/100​

Which amounts to 0.6. A 60% chance of dealing single damage, and 40% chance of missing altogether, would yield the same statistical average damage.

Indeed, three separate 20% chance of something happening is not the same as a single 60% chance of said thing happening... But that's because you're reasonning in a binary mode, either it happens, or it doesn't. D&D is more quantitative than that, either it doesn't happen, or it does, in a varying number of occurences.

Similarly, if you have only two attacks but with a 30% chance to hit (+10 is equivalent to +2 on a d20), then, what do we see?
30% × 30% of double damage (09%).
(30% × 70%) + (70% × 30%) of single damage (42%).
70% × 70% of no damage (49%).

(49×0 + 42×1 + 9×2)/100​

Which amounts to... 60% again...

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

<snip>

Correct... now let's just give him time to sort through it.

 

[Sledge]

Two-weapon fighting I kill you now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...what do you mean it's already dead, okay I cleave....
...I can't cleave either because its already gone....
...AND We still have rapid shot!?!?!? this is an abomination to all polls! Kill the rapid shot!

 

[IronWolf]

Weapon Finesse

 

[Seeker95]

POWER ATTACK

Ditto.

Of all the Feats listed for elimination thus far, this is the only one that both rules lawyers and munchkins alike manage to abuse in equal numbers.

 

[Greylock]

Ditto.

Thank you.

Maybe once the Ranged feats are down to one, or none, the voters will descend upon the devilish thing. Power Attack begone. Maybe next round...

 

[ThirdWizard]

Ditto.

Of all the Feats listed for elimination thus far, this is the only one that both rules lawyers and munchkins alike manage to abuse in equal numbers.

There isn't a whole lot to abuse. Pick up a 2H weapon and swing.

 

[Tolen Mar]

You know wulf, I've spent all day trying to come up with a rebuttal to your post.

The only thing I can come up with was how annoyed I was when you assumed I couldnt hack math. (For the record: until I started misquoting my statistics course, I actually hadnt mathematically worked it out).

Still, for me, Id rather spend the feats on other things than one more shot or swing of the sword. Look, in the original thread, we were encouraged to be as petty as we could be. So in the end, logical arguments dont cut it. From now on, I'm voting with my gut and avoiding any arguments where I might get proven wrong.

Been happening a lot lately...

 

[drothgery]

Weapon Finesse.

Because if you're going into melee at all, your Dex shouldn't be enough better than your Str to spend a feat on it.

 

[Testament]

Weapon Finesse

I love the idea, but its implementation is awful. The +1 BAB requirement means that the characters who need it CAN'T TAKE IT at the start.