This Weekend @ The BoxOffice: 2012_Sep.09

Hand of Evil

Hero
Epic
Worst Weekend in Years - think that says it all...

Weekend Report: 'Words,' 'Cold Light' Bomb on Worst Weekend in Years
by Ray Subers --- September 9, 2012

With two lousy new releases and a handful of mediocre holdovers, the box office reached its lowest point in years this weekend. The Top 12 earned an estimated $51.9 million, which is 37 percent below 2012's previous low. It's also the worst gross since this same weekend in 2008 ($50.3 million).

External factors like the beginning of the school year and the start of the NFL season surely contributed a bit, but the real issue here is the lack of compelling offerings. This really isn't rocket science: if the content doesn't look worthwhile, people simply aren't going to leave their homes, travel to the theater, and drop $8 a ticket.

The Possession repeated in first place with an estimated $9.5 million, which is a 46 percent decline from last weekend. That's actually a good hold for a supernatural horror movie, as virtually all of these flicks drop a minimum of 50 percent (and often 60 percent) in their second outings. The Possession has now earned $33.3 million total, which is a bit ahead of The Last Exorcism ($32.1 million) through the same point.

This marked the fourth weekend in a row that Lionsgate held the top spot (two for The Expendables 2, two for The Possession). Add in the four weekends that The Hunger Games ruled in March and April, and that makes eight total wins for Lionsgate this year. That's tops for any studio this year ahead of Universal and Sony, both of which have seven.

Lawless fell 40 percent to just over $6 million this weekend, bringing its 12-day total to $23.5 million. Among recent Labor Day thrillers, that total is a bit ahead of The Debt ($21.9 million) but behind The American ($28.1 million).

The Words debuted to a terrible estimated $5 million this weekend. Among 2012 duds, that's better than People Like Us ($4.3 million) and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World ($3.8 million), but that's really not saying much. It also marks the second time in three weeks that star Bradley Cooper has been in a box office disappointment following Hit and Run ($4.5 million).

CBS Films acquired The Words for just $2 million at Sundance, but they surely ran up a nice chunk of change on the major marketing effort. The advertisements were as vague as the title, though, and essentially hung the entire movie on Bradley Cooper's shoulders. Cooper has a nice following, but he's not at a point where people will see a movie just because he's in it (that's not a knock against Cooper, as very few actors can open a movie without any help). There needs to be an interesting premise as well, and The Words just didn't cut it.

The audience was 58 percent female and 78 percent were 25 years of age or older, and they gave the movie a solid "B" CinemaScore. That might be enough to generate decent word-of-mouth, but it would still be shocking if this movie wound up much higher than $15 million by the end of its run.

The Expendables 2 fell 47 percent to an estimated $4.75 million this weekend. It's now made $75.4 million total, which is noticeably off from the first movie's $92 million through the same point.

The Bourne Legacy rounded out the Top Five with an estimated $4 million (off 45 percent). On Friday, it became the first (and only) August 2012 movie to pass $100 million, and through Sunday it's at a decent $103.7 million. It's still going to be a struggle to get to The Bourne Identity's $121.7 million, which is a fairly low bar for the franchise reboot.

In 10th place, 2016 Obama's America fell 42 percent to an estimated $3.3 million. Its new total of $26.1 million makes it the second-highest-grossing political documentary ever behind Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11 ($119.2 million).

The Cold Light of Day debuted outside of the Top 12 with an estimated $1.8 million from 1,511 locations this weekend. Aside from in-theater advertisments and some online placements, the Henry Cavill-Bruce Willis thriller received virtually no marketing, and it wasn't even supposed to be a nationwide release until a week ago. As a result, the movie's utter failure shouldn't be viewed as an indictment of Cavill or Willis; instead, it's simply the result of a cost-conscious studio (Lionsgate/Summit) making the tough call to avoid dumping tens of millions of dollars in to marketing an unappealing movie.

Ahead of the Indiana Jones Blu-ray release next Tuesday, Paramount re-released Raiders of the Lost Ark this weekend in 267 IMAX locations. The Steven Spielberg classic grossed an estimated $1.73 million, which translates to a $6,461 per-theater average. That's a little underwhelming (Titanic 3D had essentially the same opening average in 10 times as many locations), but it shouldn't be entirely surprising considering there wasn't any significant marketing push.
 

log in or register to remove this ad

But better that that...

Summer 2012 Winners/Losers
by Ray Subers --- September 7, 2012


A quiet Labor Day weekend capped a Summer season that started off strong but struggled to maintain momentum through the full four months. Total domestic box office came in at $4.29 billion, which is off 2.6 percent from last year's record $4.4 billion. Overall, it ranks as the third highest-grossing Summer behind 2011 and 2009. However, the estimated 534 million tickets sold during the period is tied with 2010 for lowest ticket sales in at least 15 years.

While this is a bit of a cliche, it truly was feast-or-famine at the domestic box office this Summer. The Top Five titles accounted for over 41 percent of total grosses for the season, which is the highest share in at least 20 years. In comparison, the Top Five only contributed 32 percent of last Summer's box office.

Using historical comparisons and pre-release expectations, I've compiled a list of the winners, losers, and everything in between for Summer 2012.

Winners

The Avengers: Everyone knew The Avengers would be big, but no one expected it to be this big. The long-anticipated superhero team-up obliterated the opening weekend record when it scored $207.4 million over the first weekend in May, and it held well throughout the rest of the Summer to wind up with an incredible total north of $620 million. That's nearly double the highest gross among its predecessors (Iron Man at $318.4 million) and is more than Captain America: The First Avenger, Thor and The Incredible Hulk combined. The movie was also a super-sized hit overseas as well, earning over $880 million for a worldwide total north of $1.5 billion (ranking third all-time). Reinforcing just how much money Disney/Marvel made on this, they currently have five follow-up movies on the calendar for the next three years, including a sequel scheduled to kick off Summer 2015.

The Dark Knight Rises: Expectations got out of hand for the conclusion to Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy (I predicted it would earn over $1.3 billion worldwide—whoops), but that shouldn't take away from the movie's many achievements. The Dark Knight Rises set an opening weekend record for a 2D-only movie with $160.9 million, and it's on pace for a strong domestic tally around $450 million. More importantly, it saw solid growth overseas, and over Labor Day weekend became the 13th movie ever to earn over $1 billion worldwide.

Ted: In a Summer packed with all kinds of expensive special effects, the most memorable one may be that of a foul-mouthed teddy bear ripping a giant hit off a bong. By the end of Summer, Seth MacFarlane's raunchy R-rated comedy Ted ranked eighth all-time for an R-rated movie (and fourth all-time for a comedy) with $216.1 million, and it also was an overseas success with $168 million and counting. The movie serves to emphasize how valuable an original comedy idea can be: Ted will ultimately earn over $400 million worldwide, which will make it Universal's highest-grossing movie of 2012 ahead of mega-budget movies like Snow White and the Huntsman ($394 million) and Battleship ($303 million).

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted: It's amazing what a few circus afros can do for a movie's box office: while most franchises see declining domestic grosses for the third entry, Madagascar 3 became the top movie in the series with $214.8 million. It's also made $388 million overseas, and should at least come close to passing Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa's $423.9 million. Don't be surprised if DreamWorks puts in to production Madagascar 4: Adventures in Asia in the near future.

Ice Age: Continental Drift: The fourth Ice Age movie was the lowest-grossing entry in the series domestically with $156 million. That really doesn't matter, though, considering it earned an incredible $672.4 million overseas. A fifth Ice Age movie should be on the way soon.

Magic Mike: Coming off The Vow and 21 Jump Street, Channing Tatum was already having a pretty great year the box office. He pulled off his most impressive feat yet, though, by turning micro-budget male stripper movie Magic Mike in to his third $100 million hit of 2012.

Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection: After a few mild box office disappointments, multi-hyphenate entertainer Tyler Perry returned to his most popular character in Madea's Witness Protection. It wound up being Perry's second highest-grossing movie ever with $65.3 million, and proved that his brand can work as solid counter-programming even in the middle of Summer.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Moonrise Kingdom: Most Summers have at least one crowd-pleasing limited release that crosses over in to mainstream success. Last year it was Midnight in Paris ($56.8 million), while this year it was both The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($46 million) and Moonrise Kingdom ($44.3 million).

2016 Obama's America: Ahead of the 2004 presidential election, Michael Moore unleashed anti-Bush screed Fahrenheit 9/11, which went on to become the highest-grossing political documentary ever with $119.2 million. 2016 Obama's America is filling the anti-Obama slot this election season, and while it won't match Fahrenheit 9/11's gross, it is already the highest-grossing conservative documentary ever by a large margin with over $22 million.


Losers

Dark Shadows: Johnny Depp and Tim Burton's last collaboration, Alice in Wonderland, earned over $1 billion worldwide. While Dark Shadows was, as the title suggests, a bit darker, it's still inexcusable for these box office heavyweights to wind up with less than $240 million this time around.

Battleship: Turning a simple naval strategy board game in to a $200 million alien invasion movie a la Transformers never seemed like a good idea and, as expected, audiences completely rejected it at the U.S. box office. It earned a pathetic $65.2 million, which was even worse than star Taylor Kitsch's previous mega-budget sci-fi bomb John Carter ($73.1 million). Sure, it did fine business overseas ($237.6 million), but that wasn't enough to prevent a massive write-off for Universal.

Total Recall: Remaking Arnold Schwarzenegger movies is proving to be a really poor decision: Conan the Barbarian bombed last Summer with $21.3 million, and Total Recall didn't do much better with just $57 million this year. It's saving some face overseas, where it's earned over $100 million, but that's still chump change for an expensive sci-fi flick.

Rock of Ages, That's My Boy and The Watch: Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler are two of the biggest box office draws of the past two decades, and Ben Stiller and Vince Vaughn are no slouches either. The fact that their three Summer 2012 movies earned less combined than Magic Mike indicates that star power really doesn't go that far if your movie looks terrible.

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter: Genre mash-ups are a tricky business, and it was never clear who Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter was for. History buffs? Vampire lovers? Wanted fans? Turns out it wasn't for anyone, really, and it wound up grossing a terrible $37.5 million.

Seeking a Friend for the End of the World: Steve Carell decided to leave The Office in 2011, but after Seeking a Friend for the End of the World was quickly disappeared from theaters with just $7.1 million, he might be reconsidering that move a bit.

Toss-Ups

The Amazing Spider-Man: Even with 3D ticket pricing, the Spider-Man reboot is the first in the franchise to wind up below $300 million at the domestic box office. Still, it's on pace to earn over $750 million worldwide, which is more than enough to justify the sequel that's currently scheduled for May 2014.

Brave: With over $232 million, Brave is Disney/Pixar's 10th movie to cross the $200 million mark. Unfortunately, it wasn't able to gain much traction overseas, and it will be the lowest-grossing Pixar movie there since 2006's Cars.

MIB 3: A decade of ticket price inflation and the addition of 3D still couldn't keep MIB 3 from being the lowest-grossing entry in the franchise at the domestic box office ($178.9 million). At the same time, it cleaned up overseas with $445 million, reaffirming what an international superstar Will Smith is.

Snow White and the Huntsman: The movie nearly cleared $400 million worldwide, making it one of the highest-grossing original movies of the Summer. It was pricey, though, and the odd rumblings surrounding the sequel (or Huntsman-only spin-off) suggest it probably isn't an unqualified success.

Prometheus: Following a series of insanely cool trailers and viral clips, expectations for Prometheus got a bit out of hand; for a dark R-rated sci-fi movie, $126.4 million at the domestic box office and $225 million (and counting) overseas is a solid haul.

The Bourne Legacy: The jury is still out on the Bourne spin-off/reboot; it has yet to hit $100 million through four weeks in theaters, and it's going to have a tough time matching The Bourne Identity's $121.7 million total. Still, it has a long way to go overseas, and could wind up slightly profitable. The prospects of another Bourne movie with Jeremy Renner will still be up in the air, though, if only because audience members mostly walked out going "What the hell?" instead of "Can't wait for the next one!"

The Expendables 2: Unlike its predecessor, The Expendables 2 is going to ultimately fall short of $100 million at the domestic box office. Toss in strong overseas numbers, though, and the movie will likely do well enough to get a pass.
 

Thanks for the extra article! :)


"Battleship: Turning a simple naval strategy board game in to (. . .)"


heh heh "naval strategy board game" :D


I can think of two (or three) things wrong with that description. ;)
 

Some thoughts...

Ted: ... The movie serves to emphasize how valuable an original comedy idea can be

What was even remotely original about Ted? It's Seth Macfarlane doing the same comedy schtick that he's done for years, and could be considered derivative of a large number of other movies. I'm not saying this is bad, just that it doesn't deserve much credit for originality.

Madagascar 3:

Ice Age: Continental Drift:

I had really hoped that Shrek 4's failure was a sign that more of these series would be ending. I have little to no appreciation for either of these franchises.

Battleship: ... $200 million alien invasion movie .... It earned a pathetic $65.2 million ... it did fine business overseas ($237.6 million), but that wasn't enough to prevent a massive write-off for Universal.

$200 million budget and $299.8 million income world wide sounds like almost a $100 million payday to me. Sure, it was nowhere near as much as they wanted and didn't do great domestically, but it was in no way a loser for the studio. It's only a write-off using the mysterious Hollywood accounting that manages to make every movie a write-off.
 

Remove ads

Top