Ukraine invasion

[Zardnaar]

I don't think they need UN permission to intervene.

If they do they'll dress it up as a humanitarian mission. Ukraine asks for aid send in a convoy or whatever if anything happens article 5.

What's Russia gonna do diplomatically go complain to the UN NATO is shooting them?

 

[Rabulias]

No votes: Russia, Kenya, Gabon, Ghana
Obviously Russia would condemn a UN peacekeeping action against them but the three African countries named have too much invested in Russia to 'bite the hand that feeds them'. Even though they have been mostly neutral in the General Assembly, their SecCoun votes would be enough to spoil a 2/3rds majority.

Abstention: China, India, Mexico, and Brazil
All four nations have very close diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, tourism is also very much a commodity among these nations. However, none of these nations currently have the want or need to support either side politically. This stance keeps them neutral on the world stage and allows them to supply whatever or both sides during a conflict.

I agree with much of your analysis, but Kenya, Gabon, Ghana, Mexico, and Brazil all voted to condemn Russia's invasion, and Kenya's UN ambassador gave a strong rebuke to Russia in his speech, which I quoted here (Ukraine invasion). I think some of them could be swayed by the rest, which might be enough.

However, Russia (along with China, possibly) would outright veto the resolution, which is a much shorter route to the end result than your analysis.

 

[Thunderfoot]

I agree with much of your analysis, but Kenya, Gabon, Ghana, Mexico, and Brazil all voted to condemn Russia's invasion, and Kenya's UN ambassador gave a strong rebuke to Russia in his speech, which I quoted here (Ukraine invasion). I think some of them could be swayed by the rest, which might be enough.

However, Russia (along with China, possibly) would outright veto the resolution, which is a much shorter route to the end result than your analysis.

Well, I stated that they had publically condemned the actions in the General Assembly and in other diplomatic means. However, making a statement of 'Brah, really?' and authorizing action against them are far afield. Especially since all of the countries named have massive inport/export and tourism economies at stake. There is history of countries using harsh language in the GenAss'y and then backing off in the SecCon, as well. Usually only the Standing 5 tend to do and say in both places. China abstained in the GenAss'y vote for sanctions, which is why I think they would also vote for the same in SecCon. This is a departure for China which could mean another agenda for them, but thay's a different discussion and one that wouldn't last long on here.

 

[Thunderfoot]

I don't think they need UN permission to intervene.

If they do they'll dress it up as a humanitarian mission. Ukraine asks for aid send in a convoy or whatever if anything happens article 5.

What's Russia gonna do diplomatically go complain to the UN NATO is shooting them?

Then you haven't paid attention to how the UN/NATO operate. They tend to move at a more cautious pace unless prompted by certain diplomatic actions. NATO WILL NOT commit troops without a blessing from the UN, unless Russia violates a sovereign NATO state. It keeps them from being aggressors. In this case it is essentially, "we aren't going to do what you just did." It's why Mr. Putin's ability to 'false flag' is going to be hard to accomplish. The paper trail of the NATO Militaries are almost as long as their supply trains, maybe longer.

 

[Horwath]

Tu-141 "Strizh" Missile-Like Drone From The War In Ukraine Looks To Have Crashed In Croatia (Updated)

The mysterious craft that slammed into Croatia's capital appears to be a Soviet-era jet-powered drone that only Ukraine operates.

www.thedrive.com

well... nice navigation asshats!

 

[Umbran]

So after researching member nation of the current UN Security Council, I have a firm grasp on how a vote on UN peacekeeping operations would go.

I'm sorry, but after doing all that research, you have apparently missed that Russia has a VETO in the Security Council, such that the rest of the votes are irrelevant.

 

[Umbran]

I don't think they need UN permission to intervene.

Need, in an absolute sense? No.

But they are extremely unlikely to put boots on the ground in a non-NATO country without UN backing.

 

[Rabulias]

Well, I stated that they had publically condemned the actions in the General Assembly and in other diplomatic means. However, making a statement of 'Brah, really?' and authorizing action against them are far afield. Especially since all of the countries named have massive inport/export and tourism economies at stake.

If those nations rely on economic ties to Russia, they need to think strategically and find a way to end this quickly. It looks to me like the Russian economy is not going to be in a position to help them as much. Yes, you don't bite the hand that feeds you, but you might bark a warning when you see that same hand headed into a wood chipper.

 

[Thunderfoot]

I'm sorry, but after doing all that research, you have apparently missed that Russia has a VETO in the Security Council, such that the rest of the votes are irrelevant.

Well, there is that. lol It was in response to the why doesn't.... questions that keep coming up. Russia could veto, but, is highly unlikely they would. They don't need to and can save it for another day. (Not that they need to do that either.)

 

[Umbran]

Russia could veto, but, is highly unlikely they would.

But, they already have! On February 26th, they vetoed a Security Council resolution demanding they stop their invasion. So any resolution about putting troops in to stop them is almost certain to get a veto. (Russia blocks Security Council action on Ukraine)

Traditionally, Russia, and the Soviet Union before them, have had little to no compunction against using the veto in their own interests. They do not care what the world thinks of this. They have no interest in the political play of restraining their voting, relying on other states to vote no for them.