Ukraine invasion

[Horwath]

Maybe - but there's also nothing like having parts of your country annexed by a bullying neighbor with whom you have a brutal history to motivate you to invest in your military and their training over the last 7 years. Had the Russians invaded broadly back in 2014 instead of focusing just on the Crimea and using proxies, I doubt their forces would have been any better than their forces now, and I doubt the Ukrainians would be able to put up as much of a fight. Had the Russians been facing Ukrainians this prepared in 2014, they might not have been able to annex the Crimean Peninsula.

Also, Ukrainians took asymmetric warfare very seriously.

The now infamous 60+km long convoy towards Kyiv was dismantled mostly by a single 30 man platoon that was riding through forests on quads with night vision goggles and targeting vehicles from inside treelines.

 

[Zardnaar]

Also, Ukrainians took asymmetric warfare very seriously.

The now infamous 60+km long convoy towards Kyiv was dismantled mostly by a single 30 man platoon that was riding through forests on quads with night vision goggles and targeting vehicles from inside treelines.

Posted that earlier. I think the Russians were importing a lot of the link mited stuff they did have from France.

I think the Chechen's have night vision equipment the average Russian Mook no so much.

 

[Umbran]

I have read multiple reports that Russia's military is more a paper tiger than anything.

I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.

 

[Gradine]

I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.

Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it. I was more responding to the assertion that the Russian army was a "pro NFL team" fighting against a "high school team", which isn't anywhere remotely close to accurate unless the NFL team in question is like... the '08 Lions.

 

[NotAYakk]

Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it. I was more responding to the assertion that the Russian army was a "pro NFL team" fighting against a "high school team", which isn't anywhere remotely close to accurate unless the NFL team in question is like... the '08 Lions.

The point is that Russia's military looked large. People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.

And Ukraine wasn't on the map.

It looks to me like a combination of Russia was overestimated, Ukraine underestimated, and Tanks being obsoleted by modern infantry weapons.

Now switchblades are being deployed. On paper, they make Javelins and Bayraktar look obsolete. (A cheaper than Javelin remote controlled drone with Javelin level firepower and long range/idle time, plus an even cheaper one for less-armored targets...)

If they perform up to their potential, youch.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Sure. War is hell no matter who is participating in it.

War is worse than Hell. Cue the scene from M.A.S.H.

When this started, I felt my heart breaking. Not just because I knew there would be devastation and destruction of the towns and villages. Not because I knew there would be civilian casualties. And not because I knew it would be revealed that the Russians and their mercenaries would end up brutalizing and committing war crimes upon civilians. But also because I knew the suffering won't stop after the Russians leave. Surviving Ukrainians will in turn brutalize those neighbors they thought were sympathizers of the Russians. Doesn't matter if that person was forced at gunpoint to help the Russian army. When you have a brutalized and devastated population, they will look at any reason to enact revenge and seek what they feel is justice, especially those who they think are traitors.

It doesn't stop there either. Even after all of that stops, the nightmares will haunt these people for a generation. Those are the reasons I have been so moved by all of this. I saw it all firsthand in Bosnia, so I knew what was going to happen, even if our media is acting shocked and surprised. It's what happens in every war.

The point is that Russia's military looked large. People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.

And Ukraine wasn't on the map.

It looks to me like a combination of Russia was overestimated, Ukraine underestimated, and Tanks being obsoleted by modern infantry weapons.

Now switchblades are being deployed. On paper, they make Javelins and Bayraktar look obsolete. (A cheaper than Javelin remote controlled drone with Javelin level firepower and long range/idle time, plus an even cheaper one for less-armored targets...)

If they perform up to their potential, youch.

It would be a huge mistake, IMO, to underestimate the Russian army fighting capability. This disaster (militarily speaking) for them was because they thought it would be a cakewalk. That led to a lack of logistical efforts in place to sustain a longer invasion. And the average soldier had no idea what they were doing at first, causing morale issues and lack of organization.

Many of those issues have been addressed. Russia pulled back and consolidated in other areas for a second attack. This second attack will be more effective for them. Putin brought in additional mercenaries who are more experienced than the original conscripts. I'm not saying they will take over Ukraine, but I suspect there will be a second offensive, and it will be much worse for the Ukrainians than the first was.

 

[Rabulias]

I am pretty sure the civilians in, say, Bucha, would say there's nothing "paper" about the tiger.

Point taken of course, but one does not usually measure an army's effectiveness against innocent civilians.

The point is that Russia's military looked large. People knew it had problems, but prior to Ukraine saying it wasn't a top10 world military would be ridiculed.

I heard a comedian say "We thought Russia had the second best army in the world. Turns out they had the second best army in Ukraine."

 

[Baron Opal II]

What are the oil reserves around Crimea and the north shore of the Black Sea?

 

[Zardnaar]

What are the oil reserves around Crimea and the north shore of the Black Sea?

They have gas reserved but needs investment.

 

[Zardnaar]

War is worse than Hell. Cue the scene from M.A.S.H.

When this started, I felt my heart breaking. Not just because I knew there would be devastation and destruction of the towns and villages. Not because I knew there would be civilian casualties. And not because I knew it would be revealed that the Russians and their mercenaries would end up brutalizing and committing war crimes upon civilians. But also because I knew the suffering won't stop after the Russians leave. Surviving Ukrainians will in turn brutalize those neighbors they thought were sympathizers of the Russians. Doesn't matter if that person was forced at gunpoint to help the Russian army. When you have a brutalized and devastated population, they will look at any reason to enact revenge and seek what they feel is justice, especially those who they think are traitors.

It doesn't stop there either. Even after all of that stops, the nightmares will haunt these people for a generation. Those are the reasons I have been so moved by all of this. I saw it all firsthand in Bosnia, so I knew what was going to happen, even if our media is acting shocked and surprised. It's what happens in every war.

It would be a huge mistake, IMO, to underestimate the Russian army fighting capability. This disaster (militarily speaking) for them was because they thought it would be a cakewalk. That led to a lack of logistical efforts in place to sustain a longer invasion. And the average soldier had no idea what they were doing at first, causing morale issues and lack of organization.

Many of those issues have been addressed. Russia pulled back and consolidated in other areas for a second attack. This second attack will be more effective for them. Putin brought in additional mercenaries who are more experienced than the original conscripts. I'm not saying they will take over Ukraine, but I suspect there will be a second offensive, and it will be much worse for the Ukrainians than the first was.

It's a numbers game though and it's not looking great for Russia.

On paper they have 900k military but that's across all services including internal security.

Think they have around 300k available in the actual army of which 200k got sent to Ukraine.

But the BtGs haves big flaw they have very few infantry. Of that 200k less than 40k were infantry.

It's like their 12000 tanks on paper of which only 2500 odd are useable of which less than half are "modernized".

So they've lost a very large % of Frontline vehicles and are short of infantry.

So unless they're willing to call up reserves and conscripts (something Ukraine did the day before)