The math does get complicated, but there certainly is a reason to calculate the percentage of both a success at the attack and the percentage of the Speed Attack being allowed. If a character with a dagger only has a 10% chance to hit a foe, he's going to have a Speed Attack probabilty of much less than 10%. But, if the same character has a 70% chance to hit another foe, then his Speed Attack probablity is much higher than with the first foe.
A lot of things have to happen in order for the Speed Attack to be successful...
1. Character has to make a successful attack with a Speed Weapon.
2. Damage on that blow has to be rolled as a "1".
3. And, the Speed attack has to be successful.
So, not only does a character, in effect, have to hit the target twice, but also has to roll minimum damage on the first attack.
All of that, put-together, makes the chances of a Speed Attack happening, then being successful, very slim.
WB, permit me to say, but you are thinking of this the wrong way. First of all the:
"3. And, the Speed attack has to be successful." is COMPLETELY irrelevant. Having good chances of making an extra attack IS the big deal here.
When a fighter reaches 6th level and gets his second attack, its a very big deal for the fighter. There is no point in trying to calculate the chances the fighter has to actually succeed on his second attack, so as to "appraise" the value of the second attack. The value of this second attack is already big , because the fighter gets "some" chances to deal DOUBLE the damage he used to.
As far as the:
"1. Character has to make a successful attack with a Speed Weapon." it is not as completely irrelevant, but its of minor importance as well... why?
By the time a characters gets a second attack, his chances to make a single hit are round about 75% (assuming that by a rolling an 11 (50%) he hits). This 75% is the minimum! By the time a character gets a third and a fourth attack, this goes up to 85 and 90%. What i'm trying to say is that after a certain point (which is not that high in the scale of levels), its only natural to assume that a fighterish character is gonna land at least one blow for certain.
...all the above, consequently lead us to the fact that the
"2. Damage on that blow has to be rolled as a "1"." is what matters most by far.
As i said before, this 1 is translated into 16,6% on a D6, and into 25% on a d4.
This means that with a single successful hit, you allow a character to get a chance (16,6% or 25%) of dealing DOUBLE the damage he usually deals
Now... is it reasonable to give such an ability to speed weapons? Is it reasonable to make the speed weapons almost as equally important as the increase of iterative attacks a character receives by going up in level? i don't think so.
On my previous post i gave you an example with a 6th level ranger with two shortswords at hand. The numbers my example provided are enough for me to come to the conclusion that:
if you allow more that one free attack per hand/weapon on a character, while allowing str bonus and precision damage at the same time, the rule gets instantly broken.
But lets take the same example with daggers instead of shortshords. And lets assume once more that our 6th lvl ranger gets three attacks per round.
With a 50% to hit (11 on a D20), chances for the ranger to land
at least one blow are 87,5%. This tells us thats its highly unlikely that the ranger will miss on all 3 attacks (12,5%).
With a 50% to hit (11 on a D20), chances for the ranger to land at
least two blows are 50%!!.
So with a 87,5% chance to hit
at least once, and with a 50% to hit
at least two times... its only natural to assume that this 25% the dagger offers of each successful hit is VERY VERY important.
That's about a 20% chance that the ranger is gonna get
at least one extra attack because he uses speed weapons!
....20%...
You know.... an easy way to figure out whether a rule is broken... is to take the place of the player and try to think as he does... that's what i do most of the time...
In this case i go....
am i gonna choose a weapon that deals 1d8 points of damage?
...or...
am i gonna choose a weapon that deals 1d4 points of damage, is much lighter, it allows me to use my Dex to hit (Weapon Finesse) and by 6th level it gives me a 20% to
get
at least one extra attack each round?....... and by 11 lvl... and by taking the appropriate TWF feats i can get past 50% chance for getting
at least once extra attack?
Let me tell you. I'd pick the dagger without a second thought.....
Now...if i had to consider that i can get only one free attack per hand/weapon each round. if i had to consider that i do not apply my str bonus, nor my precision damage to these free attacks.....
well... now i'm before a dilemma...... and that is enough to tell me how a rule is balanced.