What do you think One D&D will do to the VTT industry?

[Retreater]

Once again, I don't play D&D but to think that Hasbro worries about competitors digital store fronts seems silly to me because, from my limited understanding, Hasbro doesn't make products like the 5E Players Handbook available as a PDF. If they aren't willing to sell such an important book as a PDF via their own website, let alone DriveThru RPG, then I don't see why they would want to consider helping what will be their competition.

But they sell it now on D&D Beyond (which they now own). And unlike a PDF, you have to use their service to open the proprietary format, which they can alter or remove at their discretion.

 

[Hex08]

And dramatically reduce sales volume, and strike an incredible blow to the brand and the company’s reputation.

Cutting out the middleman and increasing profits isn't likely to do what you are suggesting but even if it does, Hasbro is, in the end, a publicly traded corporation. As long as that's the case their profit motive is really all that matters.

 

[Hex08]

But they sell it now on D&D Beyond (which they now own). And unlike a PDF, you have to use their service to open the proprietary format, which they can alter or remove at their discretion.

Cool, thanks' for pointing out my error. Like I said, I don't play the game so I'm not sure about all that is going on with 5E. However, that is kind of is my point (and I think yours in prior posts). Drive sales/subscribers to their service at the expense of other services. If that's how they sell their digital products now why should I believe it would be any different with the fully integrated One D&D service and their VTT (once again, assuming they can deliver on their promise).

 

[doctorbadwolf]

Or they can sell it themselves directly to the consumer, cut out the middleman and increase their profits.

Like I said in my initial post, I no longer play D&D so maybe I am missing something, but this One D&D initiative sounds like a fully integrated D&D experience in an era where more people are willing to play online. Since people, especially younger people, are more willing to subscribe to services rather than owning physical product and pay for content using microtransactions I find it hard to believe that if One D&D becomes a fully realized product that it won't dominate the market. Whether people slowly abandon other VTTs over time, Hasbro stops offering new content to existing ones or Hasbro pulls licenses altogether seems irrelevant, the D&D offering will win out because of its size and other VTTs will suffer and some will disappear.

A few things.

Foundry isn’t really the middleman. They’re paying wizards to make wizards money at vanishingly little overhead from wizards. Intentionally cutting them would be at least as dumb as telling Target, Amazon, and FLGSs to suck it and not letting them sell D&D books.

As far as competition goes, I think that

Does Nintendo let you play Mario Kart on Steam?
If you don't want to follow the TV/streaming media connection, then consider first party video games. You're not playing Halo on Playstation. They want to sell you an Xbox and the Game Pass service.

sure, because the console is sold at a loss, so they make their profit via individual games and subscription services.

Like…they’ve had a subscription service and been unfriendly toward third parties, and it contributed to the major deterioration of their reputation and brand. And they’re making vastly more profit now.

I guarantee that even if 5e hadn’t blown up and was just fairly successful, let’s say 3.5 level player-base, their current model would still be simply more profitable than what you are claiming they will most likely do.

I don’t think you’re taking into account that they are selling the books on a dozen platforms, and only a couple cost them literally anything to do, and all of them individually make them more money than it cost to produce the product.

They also take a sizeable chunk from DMsGuild, which exist only due to a thriving and engaged player base that mostly views the company as either neutral or as good folks doing their best. (I fall between those)

It would literally be idiotic to hard-line centralize all of that into one singular source that will have just, from the player base perspective, blatantly betrayed the players at large in a short-sighted and aggressive money-grab.

Again, not letting roll20 sell people new PHBs would be like killing their relationship with Target or with all FLGSs. Just to what, get a portion of the users from each third party to switch over to their platform, shrinking the overall digital user base, and losing money? And then you suggest they’re going to voluntarily lose even more players by requiring a subscription and micro transactions to play D&D digitally?

And all of that is before considering all the people who own multiple digital copies on different platforms, in addition to physical.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

Cutting out the middleman and increasing profits isn't likely to do what you are suggesting but even if it does, Hasbro is, in the end, a publicly traded corporation. As long as that's the case their profit motive is really all that matters.

It’s guaranteed to do exactly that. It is rarely more profitable to become the only storefront for a product that already sells like crazy on a dozen platforms, because you lose customers, and no one is buying the same product 3 times via the same platform.

Right now, every vtt on the internet that sells content access (so every legal vtt that wants to let you easily make a PHB+ D&D character) is a storefront selling the product, and by doing so contributing to the growth of the industry as a whole, which directly leads to more PHB sales both physical and digital.

Having the easiest, shiniest, most convenient, and official, vtt will make them gobs of money, but it isn’t likely to make them more money than they are currently making from all of the licensed sales that cost wizards effectively nothing to facilitate. (Every book for 5e makes its money back just on physical copy)

Clearly the better strategy is to do both. To keep making that licensed profit, and make the new direct relationship profit from what is basically a luxury version of what other vtts offer.

And then we get to the second part. 5e fixed their broken reputation. There are holdouts who still dislike them for old sins, but they are overwhelmingly outnumbered just by the people who don’t even know about those past missteps.

Part of why is that they invited everyone into the tent, with the OGL, DMsGuild, and friendly 3rd party licensing relationships, and a general ethos of “a rising tide raises all ships”, ie that the growth of the 3pp market, the indie market, etc, leads to the further growth of D&D .

Doing a 180 on that, effectively invalidating hundreds of dollars of purchases on average (per user), and basically telling people, “if you want D&D, you can only get it through us now.” would unquestionably sink their rep lower than it was in 2012.

 

[BigZebra]

I am looking forward to this VTT actually. I can't see them pulling support for other VTTs - not in a long long time any way. I don't think they are that stupid. It will result in less sales, bad goodwill etc.
What I do hope happens is that they will open up the older versions to the other VTTs. Currently only Fantasy Grounds has a license for 1e/2e. I would love to be able to play 4e and 3.5e on Roll20 etc.
Also I think this propels the other VTTs to focus on the long tail end of RPGs and not only 5e. There are so many great games I'd like to play on Roll20 (WFRP, Shadowrun, Star Wars, etc.) that have either none or minor support. Now that WotC will undoubtedly pull many users to their platform, I hope Roll20 will step up a bit (thye have been a bit lazy IMO).

Also all the glib about WotC and digital tools hidr hidr is just ridiculous outdated nonsense. It is not 2008 anymore.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

You've gotta be extremly pessimistic with an anxiety disorder. I guess that's my superpower.

I have agreed with you that what you say is possible but I still find it unlikely. However, if they pull the licences from Roll20 or from FantasyGrounds that does not prevent us from continuing to play on those platforms. It makes it harder sure, but no more difficult than playing at the table.
They would have to stop printing books also. They could do that also but at that point they would have generated enough ill will that people would be heading over to Pathfinder.
In some ways the biggest danger would be that they do not do any of these bad things but the new VTT is so sweet, and supports other games so well that it becomes dominant in the market and in 10/20 years they become dominant in VTT play as Google or Microsoft in their areas.
And I think it will take at least 20 years. 10 to get the VTT into a state where it is good enough to become the goto platform, and another 10 to take over the online ttrpg space.

 

[Jfdlsjfd]

This is a bit of an outdated sentiment, IMO. MtG is a huge moneymaker, sure, but so are the dnd books and so are licensed products that use the IP. That said, selling magic cards depends on not ruining thier reputation, so…

In their Q2 2022 earning calls, they told that MtG is generating 70% to 80% of WotC revenue. Given that some revenue must also come from DnDBeyond (even if it's an early acquisition), licencing to VTT and D&D videogames (they mention Dark Alliance in 2021 as a reason to explain the apparent lessening of revenue on the overall D&D segment, due to a comparison effect) and films, I'd still say that MtG dwarf book sales. Even if there is no other revenue for WotC than book sales and we take the highest estimate, it's still more than 2 to 1 and up to 5 to 1 in the latest quarter.

Note that I'd say that D&D branding will contribute a lot to the future film (though I wish them to attract viewers from outside the gamerspace), I wouldn't say so for the video games, where it is mostly generic fantasy (or building on its own brand, like BG3 or BG: DA or minsc and boo's plushies).

 

[HaroldTheHobbit]

At the moment I use Beyond and AboveVTT for D&D and Foundry for everything else. From what we know OneVTT may well be based on micro transactions or suchlike, which makes it a hard nope for me.
In that case I hope to be able to keep on using Above. If not we will play much less D&D and go with Foundry when we do, even though I find it a bit clumsy to combine with Beyond. And if they pull third party licenses we will stop playing D&D.

But as I've written before, I'm optimistic that OneVTT won't be finished or will be in a bad state by 2024, so hopefully it won't have any impact on other VTTs for the foreseeable future.

 

[TheSword]

To be honest I have more than enough maps, tokens etc to run Roll20 campaigns until I’m 70+. The character sheets are easy enough to modify.

 

[beancounter]

As I mentioned elsewhere, I believe that once WoTC achieves a certain market share percent with their VTT, they will lock out all other VTTs from D&D Beyond.

Yes, it will piss off a bunch of people, it won't be enough to make a material difference to their bottom line.

I also believe that they will charge a substantial subscription fee for the bare bones version of their VTT, and will have "tiers" that will have additional features, for a higher price.

I also believe that they will engage in micro transactions starting with (but not limited to) the virtual miniatures.

 

[Retreater]

Foundry isn’t really the middleman. They’re paying wizards to make wizards money at vanishingly little overhead from wizards. Intentionally cutting them would be at least as dumb as telling Target, Amazon, and FLGSs to suck it and not letting them sell D&D books.

To my knowledge, Foundry pays them nothing (since they have no official content whatsoever.) Other companies (Fantasy Grounds, Roll20) do, and Wizards makes a little off each sell of a book - but I doubt if Wizards makes a steady income from the Roll20 subscription fees.

sure, because the console is sold at a loss, so they make their profit via individual games and subscription services.

Yeah. And a group that buys one PHB and passes it around is also a "loss" for Wizards (when it has the potential to also sell subscriptions, multiple microtransactions, etc.)

It would literally be idiotic to hard-line centralize all of that into one singular source that will have just, from the player base perspective, blatantly betrayed the players at large in a short-sighted and aggressive money-grab.

And what do you think the clever marketing term "One D&D" means if not creating a singular source? The whole promo video was about bringing all the players to the D&D community (including the VTT).

Doing a 180 on that, effectively invalidating hundreds of dollars of purchases on average (per user), and basically telling people, “if you want D&D, you can only get it through us now.” would unquestionably sink their rep lower than it was in 2012.

Not if they have the devoted fan base now. Many people were not devoted to their brand, and honestly many weren't ready for online play at that time. Now they've let the VTT market grow past them, and like any other major company they want to get a big chunk of that pie.
It's just hearsay, but I've heard they make more money on the MtG: Arena game than they do the physical cards. Wizards must be eyeing that success to see how it can be duplicated with D&D. And that's through getting their players in one space playing the game and purchasing the content from them.
Would Wizards want you playing MtG on Board Game Simulator? Not when you can buy into the MtG: Arena ecosystem.

 

[Retreater]

And let's also ask: is One D&D a revision or new edition? We've heard "revision," and what has WotC done with revisions in the past?
Can you buy the 3.0 Player's Handbook, Monster Manual, or DMG on DM's Guild?
What about when they released Monsters of the Multiverse? Did they pull the old material from being able to be purchased on VTTs and D&D Beyond?
I think it's a fair assumption that WotC is going to pull the 5th edition content that we're currently playing as soon as a viable revision is released. (So, if the 5.5 DMG is released in 2025, that's when they'll pull the 5.0 DMG.)
But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

 

[Umbran]

But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

Mod Note:
When your point rests on taking pot-shots at people who disagree with you, your point is weakened, and moderators come and give you messages in red text telling you to not insult folks.

So, really, while it may feel good in the moment, it doesn't actually help you. Resist the urge.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

I have agreed with you that what you say is possible but I still find it unlikely. However, if they pull the licences from Roll20 or from FantasyGrounds that does not prevent us from continuing to play on those platforms. It makes it harder sure, but no more difficult than playing at the table.
They would have to stop printing books also. They could do that also but at that point they would have generated enough ill will that people would be heading over to Pathfinder.
In some ways the biggest danger would be that they do not do any of these bad things but the new VTT is so sweet, and supports other games so well that it becomes dominant in the market and in 10/20 years they become dominant in VTT play as Google or Microsoft in their areas.
And I think it will take at least 20 years. 10 to get the VTT into a state where it is good enough to become the goto platform, and another 10 to take over the online ttrpg space.

Another thing to remember is that 5e has an SRD and OGL.

All other platforms have to do is allow homebrew, even if they can’t safely allow you to share in their public market without review.

Wizards would be hard pressed to actually stop people playing D&D on those platforms.

And the last time they moved to a new system that was different enough you couldn’t OGL reverse engineer it easily and issued a much more restrictive license for that new system, Pathfinder took off, and the fanbase fractured.

Imagine what shareholders would think of the leadership at wizards if they caused their vastly larger new player base to fracture like that, and turn D&D once more into a topic that almost instantly sours any conversation with edition war battle lines.

 

[dave2008]

WotC will absolutely be pulling the licenses from other VTTs and saber rattling over them including anything that’s not in the SRD once their VTT is on the market. Guaranteed.

I find this to be unlikely, but I see no need to speculate beyond that when we will know the answer soon enough!

 

[dave2008]

And let's also ask: is One D&D a revision or new edition? We've heard "revision," and what has WotC done with revisions in the past?
Can you buy the 3.0 Player's Handbook, Monster Manual, or DMG on DM's Guild?

You cannot by the PHB or DMG as far as I can tell, but there a lot of 3e books available on the DMsGuild.

What about when they released Monsters of the Multiverse? Did they pull the old material from being able to be purchased on VTTs and D&D Beyond?

I don't know about VTTs, but though you can't buy the old version of D&D Beyond, you still have it if you purchased it.

I think it's a fair assumption that WotC is going to pull the 5th edition content that we're currently playing as soon as a viable revision is released. (So, if the 5.5 DMG is released in 2025, that's when they'll pull the 5.0 DMG.)

Yes and no. I think pretty much everything except the PHB, DMG, & MM will still be available. Not 100% sure about Volo's. Did those stat blocks get replaced by MotM? Regardless, I think the correct move is to no longer sell the 2014 PHB, DMG, & MM. Not sure why you think that is an issue.

But, hey, it doesn't matter. I'm just posting my predictions and getting laughed at for my opinions by the WotC fans who think their company is beyond making business decisions that follow past practices and things eluded to in their current marketing.

Man, you have gotten so sour over the past year or so. It is a game, don't take people's internet opinions* to heart. Relax or maybe take a break from forums for a bit. It seems like this all getting in your head to much.

*I say "internet opinions" because people often think and feel differently in person vs. how the act/feel on the internet. This medium is not a natural way for humans to interact, so don't assume people are behaving normally while using it.

 

[dave2008]

Imagine what shareholders would think of the leadership at wizards if they caused their vastly larger new player base to fracture like that, and turn D&D once more into a topic that almost instantly sours any conversation with edition war battle lines.

I think that is something a lot of worriers are missing. 5e has been so successful in no small part because of how inclusive they have been. They have really embraced 3PP and homebrew. It just seems unlikely they will reverse course now when everything they have been saying is that they plan to stay the course!

 

[dave2008]

Cutting out the middleman and increasing profits isn't likely to do what you are suggesting but even if it does, Hasbro is, in the end, a publicly traded corporation. As long as that's the case their profit motive is really all that matters.

I agree, but what you suggest would not increase their profits. So, by your logic, they will not do it!

 

[dave2008]

My intent isn't to insult anybody. I assume everyone posting on here has at least basic intelligence, probably well above that.
But look at precedence. Look at the rest of the entertainment market zeitgeist, and I think you can see where I'm coming to these observations.

Do you mean the precedent of bringing back the OGL, an SRD, providing free Basic version, and creating the DMsGuild (the first time ever for any 3PP to use D&D IP)?

I have no love for WotC (or TSR). I skipped 2e and 3e because I didn't care for those products / editions. However, if I look at what WotC has done since 4e, it seems they have tried to be as fan friendly as possible. That doesn't mean they always get it right, IMO, but I also realize that I am probably not the typical D&D fan.

PS - You may not have intended to be insulting, but you comment was insulting the way you phrased it. However, intent is hard to truly discern across the internet. I am reminded of that regularly.