will 4.0 succeed?

[Khairn]

If success is defined simply by book sales, then I believe that 4E will be a success both this year and next.

From the WotC standpoint, success for 4E is not based on book sales alone (IMHO) but on the ability of this edition to change the business side of the RPG industry. That means for WotC to get off of the RPG financial rollercoaster of high cost production runs followed by long term sales to recover that cost and generate profit. The vehicle WotC has chosen to change the industry and provide them with greater financial stability and profitability is the DDI.

If WotC fails to attract (and maintain) the number of DDI subscribers they've forecasted, then 4E, no matter what the book sales, will be considered a failure.

 

[Engilbrand]

I'm a teacher. I've mentioned that I play D&D. One of my students was reading Salvatore and talking about how much he liked it. I pointed out that it was a D&D book. In a short amount of time, I talked him into playing 4E when it comes out. I've even run a little bit before school for him and one of his friends. They love it. I love it. They've already gotten a few people to play with them when the books come out.
$60 for an awesome game that you won't tire of like most video games? Especially a large multiplayer one? Of course they love it.
This is why 4E is going to do so well. Because it's the best D&D created yet and it actually mimics the sorts of things that happen in books, video games and movies.
If 5 minutes of rules can get a game started, you have a winner.

 

[roguerouge]

I think if we measure the success of the game based on standards of artistry, then its success as a literary/performance form is still up in the air. The delay in the GSL and its consequent economic effects on 3rd party publishers, plus the loss of Paizo, means that they've risked losing or already lost an enormous amount of very valuable human resources that might have a devastating impact on the art history of the game.

 

[Will]

I think 4e will appeal to many of the 1e/2e players who had given 3e a chance and ended up not liking it; getting them to give WotC another shot might be difficult in some cases.

The shape of 4e seems possibly more useful/interesting to those who like the older editions than 3e was, honestly.

There are, of course, folks who just plain like 1e/2e, or don't want ANY greater complexity, no matter what. So they'll continue being happy with old editions and none of this matters to them.

Except that if 4e DOES manage to draw in new folks (and it MIGHT, since it seems a little more approachable than 3e), then there will be more opportunities to tell those new folks 'yeah, but 4e sucks ass, you should try this premium edition ...'

 

[Flynn]

Yes, I think 4E will be successful. I also think that 70-80% of the vocal 4E Haters will probably be playing it within a year, for any of a various number of reasons, and some of them may even be enjoying it in the process. (IMO, of course, YMMV.)

As for the rest of it, I have no idea if it will be successful enough, but I do feel that the marketing of this edition has not been handled as well as it could have, and that will have some negative impact on just how successful this edition could be. I still think it will do well, but I do not know just how well it will do.

Please note that all of the above is an opinion, and does not constitute fact. Until we are a few years into 4E, we won't have facts, and so it's all a matter of opinion and conjecture at this point. I do expect opinions to differ from mine, and however it goes, I do wish 4E and WOTC the best success they can manage.

My Two Coppers, Anyway,
Flynn

 

[Shazman]

I think that it has potential to be successful in the short term just because of it being the latest thing. It also has the potential to be a commercial failure (at least by Hasbro's standards) because there are many gamers who are apathetic or resentful of the new edition and the death of the magazines. I don't know a single gamer that has any interest in 4E. I think that they have alienated more fans then they realize, and I just don't see too many younger kids abandoning video games and MMORPG's for a pen and paper RPG. It seems to me there is a good chance that they are splitting the fan base and not getting enough new gamers to replace the ones they are losing. They may just see their market share shrinking pretty quickly.

 

[Dragon Snack]

Like others, I think it will be successful because 70-80% of the current D&D players will buy the new books (a fine distinction perhaps, but I know people who will buy the books and not play). I am doubtful that WotC will consider it successful enough though (see ChainMail).

I don't see it drawing in too many new players (it's not as flashy as a computer game) and certainly don't see it bringing back old school players (why now?). Add in the poor customer relations they seem intent on cultivating and I'm not convinced that the 'haters' will 'see the light' and move up to 4.0 (and honestly we don't make up that large a percentage of players anyway). I am also VERY doubtful of the DI. This is going to have to wow people to succeed, I haven't seen anything that wows me yet.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I don't see it drawing in too many new players (it's not as flashy as a computer game)

I might not be the typical computer gamer, but I honestly believe that a lot of people don't care that much about "flashy" computer games, as they care about a satisfying play experience and good gameplay. And D&D can provide that just as well as a video game. Computer Games just have the "instant use" option - turn on your computer/console, fire up the game, and you play. That's why I believe that the DDI aspects can become very important...

 

[hong]

I might not be the typical computer gamer, but I honestly believe that a lot of people don't care that much about "flashy" computer games, as they care about a satisfying play experience and good gameplay. And D&D can provide that just as well as a video game. Computer Games just have the "instant use" option - turn on your computer/console, fire up the game, and you play. That's why I believe that the DDI aspects can become very important...

I just ran up against a brick wall in Devil May Cry 4, where you have to jump your way up a spinning bladed tower and then jump on to a platform. Can't do it, ninja skillz not ninja enough.

Now I want to roll up a Nero clone in D&D and KICK DMC4'S BUTT, by proxy.

 

[Lifesupport]

Yes - I think that 4E will finally push alot of the remaining 1E/2E player base into the present. I think it will have this effect as 4E will finaly push existing 1E/2E players to realise how complex and inconsistent the 1E/2E rule set is.

I am somewhat surprised that this comment drew so much comment. It is interesting to hear other people’s views on the matter. And the fact that there is significant resistance from 1E/2E crowd.

As a current 1E/2E player I definitely enjoy the style of the rules and the campaign material in 1E/2E. But after playing with the 3E rules for a while, I am finding the 3E mechanics to be a lot smoother and less clunky. Which in general results in a better story.

At this stage I am assuming, based on the snipets so far, that 4E will be smoother still. I am interested to hear why people think that 4E is not D&D though.