D&D 5E Analyzing Bless


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Here's my python code:

Code:
import random

results = dict(hit=0, miss=0, bless=0)
for i in range(100000):
    h = random.randint(1, 20)
    b = random.randint(1, 4)
    if h > 10:
        results['hit'] += 1
    elif h + b > 10:
        results['bless'] += 1
    else:
        results['miss'] += 1

print results

python ./bless.py
{'bless': 12555, 'miss': 37562, 'hit': 49883}

Which yields 12.5% as expected.
 

So let's take the baseline cleric as my average combatant. I'm going to let the party be at level 5 and the cleric use a 2d8 damage cantrip. The clerics average damage is 9 per turn.

***The reason I chose level 5 is because it's the first time melee fighters and clerics get really differentiated in damage. I didn't go higher level because most players and campaigns spend the most time between level 5-10 in my experience.

A Maul using fighter will do 24.33 damage per turn with a few extra damage increasing tricks up his sleeve. This comes out to 2.7 times the clerics damage. A sword and board fighter will do 21 which is 2.33 times the clerics damage. A rogue with sneak attack will do 18 damage which is 2 times. A Wizard will do 2d10 which is 1.22 times the damage. A caster druid will do similar to the cleric.

So the Damages are now as follows
Druid 100%
cleric 100%
GWF 270%
Shield Fighter 230% (rounded here to make calculations easier)
Rogue 200%
Wizard 120% (rounded here to make calculations easier)

That's 1020% cleric base damage per round. That's 4080 cleric base damage per fight.

Assuming cleric goes before party in initiative:
Let's see what happens with bless: 1095% cleric base damage on first turn and 1195% cleric base damage per turn after. That totals to 4680% base damage. That's about 15% more party damage than the cleric that just uses cantrips.

Let's look at a cleric damage spell. Inflict wounds does 16.5 average damage. That's 183% cleric base damage on turn 1. By the end of the combat that's still over 12% more damage using bless than not using bless and only a very slight amount of damage more for the inflict wounds character at level 1.

That said, I looked at comparing first level spell uses. Level 3+ spells likely greatly outperform bless. I can't imagine any single target damage level 2 spells outperforming bless either. Not even spiritual weapon.

I would call a 15% increase on party attack damage very significant. Bless is a strong level 1 spell. I'm not sure if that makes it very strong. Something like Spirit Guardians even a single enemy would inflict about 225% of the clerics average attack DPR every turn and he can still attack with it up all turns but the first. That's like 800% more dpr over 4 rounds than a base cleric. That's like 20% more party damage with that spell and even more with multiple enemies present.

So yes, bless is good but still doesn't really compete with your higher level spells. Not that I think anyone ever claimed it competed with higher level spells. Using a level 1 bless on the clerics first turn is about 3/4's as effective as a level 3 spirit guardians on a single foe. It will be more powerful than level 2 spiritual weapon.

Oh and yes I still need to compute the worst case of the cleric going last and see how that changes things.
 
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cleric 100%
GWF 270%
Shield Fighter 230% (rounded here to make calculations easier)
Rogue 200%
At low AC, bless on those 3 will add 1/6 of 700% ~ 116%
Instead of 100% damage now, cleric's first action will do 116% before his turn returns.
Bless will add 16% + 116% + 116% + ...

At better AC, it should be around 1/4 or ~ 175%
Bless will add 75% + 175% + 175% + ...


If you lose your best fighter, you're down to 550% with the wizard:
Bless will add -10% + 90% + 90% + ... {low AC, hit on 6+}
Bless will add 40% + 140% + 140% + ... {mid AC, hit on 11+}
 


Hi,

To recapitulate the main points of the late stage of this thread (or what *should* be the main points :) ):

* Bless probably does better in larger parties than in smaller. If the party is too small, there aren't enough targets. Even if there are enough targets, the ones that do not make attack rolls gain no offensive benefit. As the party size increases further, it is possible to cast Bless on the attackers most likely to benefit from it. That can be a big deal. An analysis based on the idea that Feats don't exist and that all character turns have equal value when it comes to dealing damage is not relevant to the vast majority of games.

* Bless does more when enhancing important attacks, especially those that consume resources.

For example, there's something to be said to cast Bless in round 1 of combat, so that the Fighter can Action Surge with Bless. Action Surge is a limited resource; Bless helps to make it count. There's something to be said about pre-casting Bless on the Assassin so that his round 1 attacks hit and crit. Surprise is a limited resource; Bless helps make it count. Conversely, a Paladin does not have to expend spell slots on a smite until after a hit is scored; it still might be worth casting Bless on the Paladin but it does not act as insurance in the same way.

* The more difficult it is to hit, the more Bless shines. It is true that Bless adds between 5 and 20 to the percentage chance to hit, regardless of the AC being targeted. That is an average of 12.5. So if an attack normally succeeds X% of the time, Bless makes it succeed approximately X+12.5% of the time. (Any computer program that comes up with 10% is either deeply flawed or utterly broken.)

But to assert, based on this analysis, that Bless has the same effect for every AC is utterly and totally mistaken. Consider: Suppose I normally have a 10% chance to hit a difficult target, and that I inflict 100 hp of damage per hit. If I attack 10 times I have inflicted an average of 100hp. Then someone casts Bless on me. Now I have an average of 22.5% probability of hitting. If I attack 10 more times, I have inflicted an average of 225 damage. Bless has more than doubled my output! Bless has far less impact when attacking a target normally hit 50% of the time, increasing damage output by only 20%!

* Bless is great when attacking at disadvantage. Note that the d4 is not rerolled.

* And yes, Bless works very nicely with our favorite Feats.

* Finally, Bless does also help saving throws.

In some combats, and in some parties, Bless can outdo 3rd level spells.

Conversely, Bless doesn't do so well against creatures that are easy to hit, or when you do not fear failing a saving throw because the opposition does not have scary abilities, or in parties that don't have sufficient attackers. (Some of these combats can still be pretty dangerous! A single orc might be easy to hit, and have no abilities you need to save against, but a horde of them benefits from action economy and bounded accuracy... and if 1 in 4 of them is a 1st level cleric of Gruumsh willing to bless the frothing mob, they are even more dangerous.)

Anyway,

Ken
 

I find this hard to believe. There are 80 cases of 1d20 + 1d4, your answer must be a multiple of 1.25%.

Assuming you need 11+ to hit, bless will help in 10 cases:
- 10+1, 10+2, 10+3, 10+4
- 9+2, 9+3, 9+4
- 8+3, 8+4
- 7+4
That's 10/80 = 12.5%

There must be something wrong with your program or your RNG. I suggest you verify you got a flat probability by keeping of count for each of those 80 cases.

You're right. I had a "greater than" where I meant to put a "greater or equal" and wound up not counting where bless needed a four to hit.

Anyway, I kept going and found that, for a an attack dealing 1d8+4 damage, bless ranges from about 20% more damage if you need a 10 to hit, up through to 50% and higher as your chance to hit is reduced.
 

This is so 2014 lol. I was one of the 1st to call it out as being somewhere between OP and broken.

OP and broken would imply that the cleric should cast bless over spells like spirit guardians. In games without the -5/+10 power attack feats and without crazy good damage focused magic items bless just isn't OP. It's a very good level 1 spell for sure but its not OP as its not the best option for a cleric to use. It's even good enough to be better than spells like spiritual weapon. Spirit guardians is better (unless the save bonus bless provides is needed).
 

At low AC, bless on those 3 will add 1/6 of 700% ~ 116%
Instead of 100% damage now, cleric's first action will do 116% before his turn returns.
Bless will add 16% + 116% + 116% + ...

At better AC, it should be around 1/4 or ~ 175%
Bless will add 75% + 175% + 175% + ...


If you lose your best fighter, you're down to 550% with the wizard:
Bless will add -10% + 90% + 90% + ... {low AC, hit on 6+}
Bless will add 40% + 140% + 140% + ... {mid AC, hit on 11+}

Yep, AC matters. That's why I chose 50% chance to hit without bless. Against higher AC targets bless will be better. Against lower AC targets bless will be worse.

For example if the party has a 10% chance to hit an enemy then bless will nearly double your partys damage. (Without the -5/+10 feats its very rare to have a 10% chance to hit).

If you have a 90% chance to hit then bless will add very little to the partys damage.

So anyways, thanks for pointing out to these challenged people that I wouldn't have made the 50% chance to hit assumption early on if chance to hit didn't matter :)
 

Hi,

To recapitulate the main points of the late stage of this thread (or what *should* be the main points :) ):

* Bless probably does better in larger parties than in smaller. If the party is too small, there aren't enough targets. Even if there are enough targets, the ones that do not make attack rolls gain no offensive benefit. As the party size increases further, it is possible to cast Bless on the attackers most likely to benefit from it. That can be a big deal. An analysis based on the idea that Feats don't exist and that all character turns have equal value when it comes to dealing damage is not relevant to the vast majority of games.

* Bless does more when enhancing important attacks, especially those that consume resources.

For example, there's something to be said to cast Bless in round 1 of combat, so that the Fighter can Action Surge with Bless. Action Surge is a limited resource; Bless helps to make it count. There's something to be said about pre-casting Bless on the Assassin so that his round 1 attacks hit and crit. Surprise is a limited resource; Bless helps make it count. Conversely, a Paladin does not have to expend spell slots on a smite until after a hit is scored; it still might be worth casting Bless on the Paladin but it does not act as insurance in the same way.

* The more difficult it is to hit, the more Bless shines. It is true that Bless adds between 5 and 20 to the percentage chance to hit, regardless of the AC being targeted. That is an average of 12.5. So if an attack normally succeeds X% of the time, Bless makes it succeed approximately X+12.5% of the time. (Any computer program that comes up with 10% is either deeply flawed or utterly broken.)

But to assert, based on this analysis, that Bless has the same effect for every AC is utterly and totally mistaken. Consider: Suppose I normally have a 10% chance to hit a difficult target, and that I inflict 100 hp of damage per hit. If I attack 10 times I have inflicted an average of 100hp. Then someone casts Bless on me. Now I have an average of 22.5% probability of hitting. If I attack 10 more times, I have inflicted an average of 225 damage. Bless has more than doubled my output! Bless has far less impact when attacking a target normally hit 50% of the time, increasing damage output by only 20%!

* Bless is great when attacking at disadvantage. Note that the d4 is not rerolled.

* And yes, Bless works very nicely with our favorite Feats.

* Finally, Bless does also help saving throws.

In some combats, and in some parties, Bless can outdo 3rd level spells.

Conversely, Bless doesn't do so well against creatures that are easy to hit, or when you do not fear failing a saving throw because the opposition does not have scary abilities, or in parties that don't have sufficient attackers. (Some of these combats can still be pretty dangerous! A single orc might be easy to hit, and have no abilities you need to save against, but a horde of them benefits from action economy and bounded accuracy... and if 1 in 4 of them is a 1st level cleric of Gruumsh willing to bless the frothing mob, they are even more dangerous.)

Anyway,

Ken

I don't have much time left this morning so I'll address quickly.

1. The size of the party doesn't matter much with bless. It's the composition. If you have 50% of your party as damage dealer type characters then this analysis will hold. If you have 2/3 of your party as damage dealers then you may want to revisit and look at such a party. If you have 1/3 of your party as damage dealers then you may want to revisit and take a look as well because those scenarios will change things. Party size will have a much more limited impact than composition.

2. Bless absolutely does do more when extra abilities are added in. You could easily add such abilities into the comparison to see the effects...

3. Yep chance to hit matters which is why I picked 50% chance to hit for my comparison on the outset. (I thought this was obvious to most people but thanks for spelling it out).

4. Bless is good when someone attacks at disadvantage but for a different reason than you list. The lower a party memebers chance to hit the more bless helps.

5. Yep, I imagine the -5/+10 feats make bless even better. In fact with those feats and some nice magic items bless may very well be OP and better than nearly every other spell you have access to. Someone else can do the analysis if they want :)

6. Yep, in certain situations bless will be better than spirit guardians etc. I don't think many have a problem with a level 1 spell being situationally better than a 3rd level spell as long as it isn't nearly always better than a 3rd level spell.
 
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