D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

I’m a practicing Catholic, a food fiend, and a bit of a fop.

I‘ve had to go to Mass on YouTube, haven’t had asian cuisine since February, and frankly, my thinning hair shaggy Afro does NOT fit my image...or my hats.

Ain’t none of that (or other issues) going to convince me to “get back to normal” until Texas’ numbers show signs of the pandemic’s receding.

 

[abirdcall]

I just checked the IHME site. They've adjust the peak deaths day for TX from several days ago, to a few days from now. <i>And</i> they haven't yet accounted for the re-opening, afaict.
Interesting times ahead.

A week ago that site predicted 60 000 deaths in the USA through to August. We're at 60 000 now and they have updated to 72 000.

They're also predicting 5000 in Canada but the Canadian government has predicted 11 000 to 22 000 (though that may be by the end of the pandemic not just the first wave, I'm not sure).

I don't trust it either way.

They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.

 

[Deset Gled]

They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.

The latest CDC data suggest that everyone is behind with the death counts due to COVID19.

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

Basically, there's a very large gap between the rise of death compared to the average rate, and number of COVID19 deaths reported. In NYC the difference is only about 15%, which is kind of understandable if you assume they couldn't test everyone and that there are a few non-COVID deaths that are caused by the pandemic. But in places like Illinois the gap is larger than the number of COVID deaths reported, which is a lot harder to swallow.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

A week ago that site predicted 60 000 deaths in the USA through to August. We're at 60 000 now and they have updated to 72 000.

They're also predicting 5000 in Canada but the Canadian government has predicted 11 000 to 22 000 (though that may be by the end of the pandemic not just the first wave, I'm not sure).

I don't trust it either way.

They've been wrong on their daily death counts too, even going outside of their quite large ranges.

I've never seen their estimates go outside their (enormous!) error bars. But you and I may well be referring to different countries/districts.

IHME update their model every few days, so all those final counts and peak days change regularly.
I don't distrust the site, because they are pretty up front about methodology and limitations-- the big one being that it seems they assume more compliance with control measures than may be "real". I've also noticed their day-to-day data doesn't line up exactly with worldometer's or JHU's. That said, their overall US numbers have remained fairly close to what has actually happened.

I just try to remember that all these sites have different purposes, and use different sources-- which themselves are only as good as the public health offices' reporting. Given recent allegations that some countries and US states are suppressing covid-19 statistics, I think the bulk of the suspicion should be laid on those reports, not the academic institutions doing the models or visualizations.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

The latest CDC data suggest that everyone is behind with the death counts due to COVID19.

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

Finally! I've been waiting for exactly this sort of analysis for the US. Thanks for posting.

 

[Istbor]

I can't read it without signing up for an account. Hurumph.

 

[Zardnaar]

My personal guesstimate was wrong. I fired Vietnam War era casualties around 55k. Wasn't wrong with the 9/11 every 1-3 days estimate.

With 320 million people though I guess it's not real on a personal level for most people.

 

[Istbor]

My personal guesstimate was wrong. I fired Vietnam War era casualties around 55k. Wasn't wrong with the 9/11 every 1-3 days estimate.

With 320 million people though I guess it's not real on a personal level for most people.

True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.

This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.

Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.

But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.

 

[Zardnaar]

True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.

This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.

Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.

But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.

The thing I've noticed us "why is the economy falling apart with so few dead".

I know the answer but can't really explain it easily. Bubble go pop.

4 weeks ago it was lock the country down let's do this. Now it's "over it".
Obviously we know it's going in, people are being careful but the panics gone. For most people it's something you read about or see on TV.

Know anyone with Covid. No. Know anyone who's died. No.

It's not stupidly as such I just think brains are wired in such a way that you can't be scared all of the time. You gave to go get food regardless vs starving to death in your cave that's safe. The lion might eat you but you need the food.

And then you have old fashioned stupidity.

Watching this.


Common sense says don't go there. Humans not the best at danger recognition.

 

[abirdcall]

True, for the most part, something like an attack on us as Americans, or a war we are in, brings more of us together as one.

This however is being seen by many as something happening to New York, as just a natural course of life. No attack, no unifying sentiment. Maybe some bitterness in less affected areas having to sacrifice due some states on the other side of the country suffering.

Kind of like a Tornado or Hurricane. Something that can happen, and while tragic many people have a "you chose to live there so you knew the stakes" kind of mentality. At least speaking for some of the rural areas I grew up in, in my state.

But it isn't that, and shouldn't be that. This is far more wide-spread and REALLY, if it affects one part of the country (let alone the whole world) it does eventually affect your state/county as well.

One thing people in rural states often don't realize is that New York pays for their federal funding.

The same thing happens in Canada. A lot of Canada hates/resents Toronto but Toronto is where the money is.