D&D and the rising pandemic

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Okay, we need a third part.

I thought the third part was this:

We just need better people.

 

[NotAYakk]

So, because biology is incredibly complicated, we need to talk about the difference between infection, and disease. In many North American bat populations, infection with the virus that causes rabies is endemic - pretty much every bat you come across is likely to be infected. However, bats show no symptoms of rabies.

If we want to be picky (and here, it pays to be so), the disease is not the infection, but a collection of symptoms - often called a "syndrome" - caused by that infection. The virus we are dealing with is SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), and the disease is covid-19 (Coronavirus Disease - 2019). So, technically speaking, we can talk about immunity to infection, and immunity to the disease separately.

The basic test for efficacy of a vaccine is a test for whether you get the disease. The vaccine typically manages this by reducing the viral load down to levels such that it cannot cause disease. This usually means that your viral load is also low enough that you cannot effectively transmit the virus. The fact of the matter is that it is terribly uncommon for a vaccine to make you immune to the disease, but also infectious.

However, when a scientist says something is "not entirely clear" that usually means they haven't SPECIFICALLY tested that scenario, which would require an entirely different testing regimen. So, the scientist, being totally truthful, can't tell you for absolute certainty that you aren't shedding virus, because they've been busy testing whether it will make you sick. The fact that they haven't tested that specific issue does not mean there's any real concern around it in terms of the health benefits of the vaccine.

Yes, so it is very likely that 95% immunity to the disease will lead to a large amount of reduction in passing the disease on to other people.

Covid 19 seems to have a large variation in its spreading. Most people spread the disease to 1 or fewer people. Some people spread it to 10, 100 or even 1000 people directly. Those "super spreaders" seem to have driven the early part of the spread. Take SK, where a single person was responsible for the entire 2nd wave of disease.

Suppose the disease is 50% likely to make you nearly completely non-infectious, and 90% likely to prevent you from being a super-spreader.

Toss on modest amounts of public mask use, and the disease could wipe itself out pretty quickly, even before universal inoculation.

(of course, the disease could also mutate in response to this huge selection pressure, so we aren't out of the woods yet).

---

The best thing coming out of this is that we now know how to make a vaccine from genetic data in under a year. And for at least a while, funding that kind of infrastructure will be in vogue.

Covid-19 could have been smallpox bad (clean-field smallpox has an insane fatality rate; entire civilizations where wiped out by it), and we can still run into a smallpox-bad disease in the future. The ability to turn vaccinations around rapidly will have high value.

As a toy model, if we assume that the chance of an epidemic starting is roughly proportional to the number of people alive times the time they are alive (ie, each minute of the day, everyone has roughly the same chance of being patient zero for a new epidemic). We can check this model against "lesser" epidemics we have spotted over the last few decades (SARS-1, MERS, various flus). Then we can expect our highly interconnected world plus huge population will lead to new epidemics with higher frequency.

I read some SF about a post-antibotics future. In it, populations where sessile and defensive, not allowing people to move around, in order to block disease vectors. You'd trade, but you'd trade with sterilized stuff.

Biotech can help us avoid that future.

 

[Thomas Shey]

My optimistic bound is most things open in the US by start of June. My pessimistic is everything open by end of June but 50% of the folks won't have bothered with the vaccine and all of the lawsuits will be about whether schools and employers can require it.

It might be an open question with employers, but Jacobson v. Massachusetts seems to suggest it can be done by the state, and that was with a vaccine a lot more dangerous than these likely are.

 

[Zardnaar]

It might be an open question with employers, but Jacobson v. Massachusetts seems to suggest it can be done by the state, and that was with a vaccine a lot more dangerous than these likely are.

Employment law and things like access to healthcare can be used to pressure people.

Health and safety workplace law. Alit of human rights only apply in your private life.

Basically you can wear what you want for example but your boss can make you wear safety equipment or fire your ass.

Sure you don't have to wear it but they don't have to employ you either.

Also outside of various categories the boss can legally discriminate against you for all sorts of stupid reasons.

They don't like the colour of your shoes tough luck. No Covid vaccination tough luck.

Apply that logic to things like childcare, schooling, access to benefits, healthcare etc they can do a fair bit of legal arm twisting.

Someone posted an old polio vaccination thing from the 1960s on Reddit. Basically you didn't get a choice.

 

[Thomas Shey]

Employment law and things like access to healthcare can be used to pressure people.

Health and safety workplace law. Alit of human rights only apply in your private life.

Basically you can wear what you want for example but your boss can make you wear safety equipment or fire your ass.

Sure you don't have to wear it but they don't have to employ you either.

Also outside of various categories the boss can legally discriminate against you for all sorts of stupid reasons.

They don't like the colour of your shoes tough luck. No Covid vaccination tough luck.

Apply that logic to things like childcare, schooling, access to benefits, healthcare etc they can do a fair bit of legal arm twisting.

Someone posted an old polio vaccination thing from the 1960s on Reddit. Basically you didn't get a choice.

That's likely the legal case I referenced.

And honestly, health-related rules make a hell of a lot more sense than half of what employers are allowed to do. Its just that when its "You have to take this injection which can entirely possibly have some effect on some parts of the populace" it gets...sticky.

 

[Zardnaar]

That's likely the legal case I referenced.

And honestly, health-related rules make a hell of a lot more sense than half of what employers are allowed to do. Its just that when its "You have to take this injection which can entirely possibly have some effect on some parts of the populace" it gets...sticky.

Yeah the constitution doesn't seem to state one way or another and USA is fairly pro employer so it depends on how many corporations want to do that and court cases.

There's a few work around here and it's easy enough to change the law theoretically anyway if the "if but" doesn't hold up.

 

[Hussar]

Just saw this one come across my feed a few days ago. Sheesh. For those who aren't Canadian, CSIS is our version of the CIA.

CSIS accuses Russia, China and Iran of spreading COVID-19 disinformation - National | Globalnews.ca

The pandemic has 'deepened fissures between authoritarian states and Western liberal democracies,' a declassified CSIS report said.

globalnews.ca

 

[Goliath Coins]

Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives. But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.

 

[ccs]

Obviously I hope the vaccine is effective and saves many lives. But from just a gamer's view (which is very small in perspective in the scheme of people's lives), I hope it allows Gen Con to happen this year.

And if I can't attend GC? Then I hope that it's because they canceled it, not that I was unable to attend or felt it an unwise trip. That way my unbroken attendance streak remains unbroken.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

As I understand, the Pfizer vaccine requires super-cold refrigeration, Moderna’s can be stored in medical refrigerator temps, but AstraZenica’s can be kept in standard refrigeration systems. Possibly even a run of the mill ice chest.

If hat gives AZ’s vaccine a significant advantage in portability to rural areas. Some counties here in Texas don’t have a single MD, and the nearest medical facilities are over 250 miles away.

Now imagine trying to vaccinate people outside of first-world nations.

Ultimately, that could make it the most important of the three for fighting the pandemic globally.