If WotC are going primarily by approval percentages in 2022 then 1D&D is going to be a complete and utter mess, frankly.
Grown-ups running a company with hundreds of millions of turnover should not be basing design decisions on percentages from a poorly-written survey, and if they are, god help us all. The percentages are of interest, sure, but ultimately the right design decision is the right design decision, whether or not the LITERAL sub-1% of the playerbase who answered the survey approve of it or not. People are against design by committee, and the only thing worse than that is design by a tiny percentage of the playerbase/fans.
Realistically whether 1D&D creates a significant divide or not is going to depend a lot less on the rules, and a lot more on the marketing, pricing, accessibility of the new rules, and so on on. It's also going to depend on hard-to-control and somewhat irrational perceptions about whether rules are "better" or "worse", which are something WotC are going to need to finesse towards the end of the playtest (but which is largely immaterial at this point).
As an aside, an awful lot of people who actually run/play D&D are unaware of the 1D&D playtest right now, outside of the "extremely online" types. For example, my most rules-attentive and generally up-to-date-on-D&D player? He didn't know about it until last weekend when I told him. My friend who regularly runs D&D for his kids and their friends, and is a long-time player, and buys a lot of 5E stuff? He didn't know until even more recently, and again, only because I told him. These people are representative of more "typical" D&D players, I would suggest, and they know nothing about it.
I don't follow Critical Role or the like, but unless they're talking about 1D&D, I doubt their fans will have heard of it either. I suspect we'll see a huge increase in the number of people aware of it in the last few months before release.