D&D 5E Are D&D sales declining? Teos Abadia takes a look.

[Parmandur]

A decline in sales? Definitely.

But this soft of a landing? At least so far? I do think that’s news. At least in this industry.

I think it is worth remembering that the RPG industry has only existed for 50 years. The "historical reference" for how to make and market products is ridiculously limited, compared to other media which are hundreds or thousands of years old! Still evolving, IMOm

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Out of curiosity, did any of the switchers -- such as to pathfinder -- stick?

It's hard to tell. There were a bunch of people who rushed in buying pathfinder books and loudly proclaiming that they were switching because of how mad they were at WotC - but they weren't people I was all that familiar with (not people who play at the store, for example) and I'm not sure that I (personally) have seen them again to see what they're playing/buying. I suspect that it ultimately would have more to do with if they LIKED PF2 or not, than anything else.

Come to think of it, there were a couple of customers that I know better than the ones that I'm thinking of above that bought things like "Index Card RPG" to "Check it out" that I think probably tried it and moved back to 5e when things chilled out.

 

[Zardnaar]

I knew the recent adventure sakes were down a lot relative to other adventures a few years ago via that video looking at book scan.

Eventually you'll hit saturation point.

 

[LordEntrails]

Decline here is for new products. For much of 5E's life, each new product did better than the previous one. That is essentially unheard of in our hobby. Crawford and other staff have cited this, as they should, because it is tremendous.

What the data shows is that this is changing. Releases are starting to do fewer sales than the previous ones. Overall, 5E is still in an incredible place because those are still great numbers. But the decline is a solid indicator that achieving $1B for D&D won't come from book sales. While most rational folks knew that already, this really makes it clear. And it may be why Hasbro is now discussing the VTT and DDB and Baldur's Gate 3 as the future.

Interestingly, the growth and decline in BookScan doesn't match up in obvious ways with the pandemic. This supports folks saying that other factors (Stranger Things, reaching new audiences, etc.) are more important.

Thanks! It still leaves me with questions.

(Note, I know some of this seems to contradict your statement as to being unheard of, but I'm not sure the specifics of your case or what products, here me out, please.)

Is it reasonable to expect new products to have the same sales as the original/core products? i.e. Do we really expect a character options book (such as Tasha's etc) to sell as many as the core PHB? Or the twentieth adventure to sell as many as the first adventure? I don't think that is reasonable. The first books (of each type) should be expected to sell more as they are designed to appeal to the core demographic, while subsequent books (and adventures) are looking to fill in the gaps. Such as LMOP is a solid adventure. Just about everyone can use this at some point in there gaming 'career', but Strixhaven or spelljammer? No, they are only going to be of interest to a subset. There is still money in that subset, but not as much as for a core product.

Is that a valid intepretation of the data?

I think it is worth remembering that the RPG industry has only existed for 50 years. The "historical reference" for how to make and market products is ridiculously limited, compared to other media which are hundreds or thousands of years old! Still evolving, IMOm

Note, imo it's not only about duration, but size of market and the money involved. Computers are not any older, but we have much better sales models for things like PCs, mobile phones, and all the software they use.

 

[mamba]

Is it reasonable to expect new products to have the same sales as the original/core products? i.e. Do we really expect a character options book (such as Tasha's etc) to sell as many as the core PHB?

I wouldn't, there are diminishing returns for more player options

Or the twentieth adventure to sell as many as the first adventure?

I would, people enter and leave the hobby all the time, if anything D&D has been growing considerably the last few years. I do not expect everyone who joins the hobby to start with the old adventures and then work their way up, they could just as well start with the current ones.

You can argue they have a bigger selection now, so the likelihood they pick any specific one goes down, but outside of a few 'classics' I am not sure many of the older ones are all that attractive for someone new to the hobby, but with the playerbase presumably growing and new people entering, I see no reason for the new ones to sell less than the new ones did say 3 or 4 years ago

 

[dave2008]

OK I’m going to state them. Maybe it just isn’t that big a deal to folks.

He detects that the OGL debacle didn’t hurt sales measurably and there was a bump in sales due to the movie.

We had heard that before, so I guess that is why people didn't say much about it

 

[dave2008]

It's also possible that sales have slowed in anticipation of the 2024 edition. IIRC, there was a similar effect after the announcements of 4E and 5E.

I am pretty sure the decline was much greater as 4e transition to 5e. They really slowed down making 4e products.

 

[dave2008]

I think the vast majority are, like myself, free accounts only for getting freebies and UA and such. However, if a low percentage buys a physical/digital bundle or just a digital version of a book for their table once in a blue moon...that can add up to an impact on Bookscan numbers.

I have a free account, but I purchase almost all of my books that way now. So even free accounts spend money on the platform

 

[Zardnaar]

Thanks! It still leaves me with questions.

(Note, I know some of this seems to contradict your statement as to being unheard of, but I'm not sure the specifics of your case or what products, here me out, please.)

Is it reasonable to expect new products to have the same sales as the original/core products? i.e. Do we really expect a character options book (such as Tasha's etc) to sell as many as the core PHB? Or the twentieth adventure to sell as many as the first adventure? I don't think that is reasonable. The first books (of each type) should be expected to sell more as they are designed to appeal to the core demographic, while subsequent books (and adventures) are looking to fill in the gaps. Such as LMOP is a solid adventure. Just about everyone can use this at some point in there gaming 'career', but Strixhaven or spelljammer? No, they are only going to be of interest to a subset. There is still money in that subset, but not as much as for a core product.

Is that a valid intepretation of the data?


Note, imo it's not only about duration, but size of market and the money involved. Computers are not any older, but we have much better sales models for things like PCs, mobile phones, and all the software they use.

Newer products probably won't sell as well.

Also perception is reality there's tier lists of product quality on YouTube, reddit etc. Basically Strahd is very well regarded most of the other adventures not so much. Dragons also sell well.

The positivity bubble as such popped around a couple of years ago maybe Strixhaven if not Spelljammer at the latest
Word gets around.

Personally I think 5E only has 4-6 good hardcover adventures and a lot are not newbie friendly eg Strahd.

I didn't pay to much attention to other products recent sales but things like core rules, alt art versions of them and Tashas, Xanathars, Dragons and Vampires were the big sellers.

 

[darjr]

Also existing products, including those already sold but out there among the customer base, are among the things people can choose. So after a while that customer product acquisition gets spread over a wider range of products.

I wonder if there is a way to map this to the growing number of available products and see if that has had a measurable impact.