Eventually it will all come out. The question to be answered is whether the dissemination and use of Generative AI is to the net public benefit which is at the heart of the exception granted news agencies, and will be necessary for AI to have the same exception granted. I'm dubious on that.
Honestly, the research exception granted for non-profit entities as part of the TDM exception and the opt-out rule even for commercial purpose seems a big move toward this. I am not as dubious as you are over tis outcome. Several studies, notably by PwC, estimated (or wildly guessed, I am dubious of precise numbers given the methodology) the economic windfall of generative AI was in the range of trillions USD each year. Making it possible by disseminating access to AI seems a very good public benefit (increasing the taxable wealth). It is even more tempting if major countries start banning it, as the competition for hosting these industries will narrow, leading to a concentration of the taxable wealth in fewer countries, who'll be incentivized to provide this exception.