D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

[Zardnaar]

Somewhat true. Rather, it has the potential for hitting more targets, possibly substantially more. Against a zombie horde or a pack of kobolds, etc, there's no real competition.

On the other hand, if targets are too spread out, or you're fighting a smaller group of higher level creatures, that extra potential doesn't really matter. From personal anecdote only, I've only had a couple times where a Fireball managed to hit more than a handful of targets. It was fun when it happened, but those targets also happened to not be that significant, either.


For the comparison I mentioned, it was at character level 5, so spell level 3, which means Chromatic Orb was upcast and Fireball was cast at its base level. I set up my spreadsheet to make it easy to switch things around, though, and looked at lots of different spell levels and accuracy levels.

Here's some quick numbers for a high level cast:

Fireball, spell level 6, using Innate Sorcery (+1 spell DC, total 18 DC) and Empowered Spell, vs 7 targets with between a +0 and +6 Dex save. Average total damage is between 250 and 298.

Chromatic Orb, spell level 6, using Innate Sorcery (advantage) and Seeking Spell, no Empowered Spell, vs 7 targets (up to 6 bounces) with a base accuracy between 60% and 95%. Average total damage is between 252 and 275.

The same two, but take away Empowered Spell from Fireball and Seeking Spell from Chromatic Orb:
Fireball: 209 to 249
Chromatic Orb: 148 to 272 (Roughly on par when at 80% base accuracy.)

Seeking Spell is very significant for Chromatic Orb at the low end, but doesn't do much at the high end. Empowered Spell is a fairly hefty chunk of damage for Fireball (~40 damage), but barely noticeable for Chromatic Orb (~10 damage).

7 enemies should be a pretty solid number of targets to hit with Fireball, so it looks like things are still roughly on par. Chromatic Orb loses more from not using Seeking Spell than Fireball loses from not using Empowered Spell, though.


Eh? That's... not how odds work. You have a 50% chance to roll a 4, 5, or 6 on a d6. You have a 50% chance to roll a 5, 6, 7, or 8 on a d8. You get a higher average on a d8 because the probability of rolling at least some value N is always higher on a d8 than on a d6. On both the upper half of values and the lower half of values, your results will be better on a d8 than a d6.

Roll at least	On a d8	On a d6
8	12.5%	0%
7	25%	0%
6	37.5%	16.7%
5	50%	33.3%
4	62.5%	50%
3	75%	66.7%
2	87.5%	83.3%
1	100%	100%

That is a different probability issue. That's about the odds of getting a very specific value. In the case of Sorcerous Burst, the specific value for getting it to explode is easier to achieve on a d6 than on a d8.

Of course the problem with Sorcerous Burst (as first playtested) was that, even with that higher explosion probability, the base value was low enough that the explosion didn't make up for it (on average; spikes make it appear better in the moment). A straight d8 cantrip did more damage on average than the d6 cantrip with exploding dice.

Switching Sorcerous Burst to a d8 base means its total damage is now between a d8 and a d10 cantrip, which is sufficient to go along with its other features. It does make the explosions less frequent, though, which is mildly disappointing.


That would be the Transmuted Spell metamagic in the 2024 PHB. And yes, it could be useful.

Getting it before level 10 is a hard choice, though, since you only start off with 2 metamagics. At level 2, I find most of the other metamagics more desirable.

Transmutes not really needed imho.

Exception might be an acid sorcerer. Not sure that proves fireballs a good spell though.

 

[Zardnaar]

Chromatic Orb whiffed very hard today. Probably because tge sorcerer though throwing them at AC 19 opponents was a good thing. And appalling dice rolling missing on 5 rolls to hit AC 19 with +9 to hit.

Vs Camboons though fire resistance. Also lightning resistant. Light Cleric got an epic roll on fireball vs 6 targets essentially clearing an encounter solo. It was a very easy fight though one less spell they needed later (both functionally ran out of spells).

Mistakes were made putting it mildly (eg vs control).

 

[jgsugden]

But, that's what the math is there to help you figure out. The average result includes the chance for you to miss completely, or miss at any point in the chain...

A common problem in these analysis is to look as combats as separate, not a series. Average damage is an easy calculation, but there are bigger factors.

Taking it to an extreme, would you rather deal an average of 50 damage or 100 damage? What if that 50 damage is a 100% chance to hit for 50 damage and the 100 damage is a 1% chance to hit for 10,000 damage?

Reliability is important. We've all had those bad luck streaks, especially with attack roll based classes, where despite the odds, we go cold. We miss. Chromatic Orb has two places where we can get an unlikely streak that ends the damage - the attack roll and the d8s. Yes, we can also get that awesome lucky streak that just blows away enemies ... but the unlikely bad streak is more significant. A series of good luck combats can end those combats faster. One bad luck combat can get you a TPK. It just takes once bad series of events in a tough combat. That one bad combat has a much greater impact on the trajectory of the game than a series of good ones.

Does that mean I shy from Chromatic Orb? Nope. It is also highly versatile with the ability to select damage types. However, I try not to rely upon it over spells that are guaranteed to do some damage like save for 1/2 spells. They can still end up with losers there (15 damage rolled on a fireball and the opponents all save ...) but not a no damage situation unless the foe has immunity.

 

[evilbob]

I really like this thread because it's a great reminder that some of us grognards need to check our assumptions when it comes to 5.5.

One of the biggest surprises of 5.5 that is emerging is how different it actually is in practice from 5.0 - especially outside of tier 1. Besides the straight-up buff in power that characters received - which they countered with a similar buff in monster HP/damage - players were given more options overall, typically in the form of complexity. This boosted the strategic depth of play, but a side effect is that we seem to be back to 3.5-levels of (possibly unintended?) interactions, especially at higher levels where so many strategic options are interacting. This can lead to relatively big power spikes in very specific circumstances. And the drunken kiwi has a great point: player skill has become a very important factor in creating those circumstances (especially due to the complexity) - which means generalized theory-crafting has become less useful, especially outside of tier 1!

And Fireball vs. Chromatic Orb is a good example. A level 5 player might think, "8d6 save with half damage minimum vs. 5d8 attack roll where I can miss for zero against 3 targets? No contest!" And in most tier 1 situations that is true. But that set of core assumptions can now be altered drastically, especially later on: and it's worth revisiting the spell using those new assumptions.

As Zard said: probably during tier 3 (and definitely by tier 4), attack roll misses just don't have to happen any more. My opinion is that baseline at that point should be 99% chance to hit, not 65%. (There are many reasons why this is true, but that's another thread.) Meanwhile, save DCs and enemy saves can be affected, but not to the same degree. Monsters' baseline 65% chance to fail a save is still probably closer to an ~80% chance. Players also have more options for re-rolling damage dice. And 5.5 Chromatic Orb is perfectly situated to benefit from the combination of those strategic advantages. Casting 6th level Chromatic Orb vs Fireball against 5 targets is a much different choice - one where Chromatic Orb can often be the superior choice - although it takes chewing through a lot of complexity to understand why. And importantly: disregarding the baseline assumptions of 5.0 and 5.5 tier 1 play.

I'm not making judgements here, nor am I saying Chromatic Orb is overpowered. Just that Zard has a good point, and it's worth DMs noting that tier 3 and 4 play in 5.5 is turning out to be less backward compatible.

 

[Zardnaar]

I really like this thread because it's a great reminder that some of us grognards need to check our assumptions when it comes to 5.5.

One of the biggest surprises of 5.5 that is emerging is how different it actually is in practice from 5.0 - especially outside of tier 1. Besides the straight-up buff in power that characters received - which they countered with a similar buff in monster HP/damage - players were given more options overall, typically in the form of complexity. This boosted the strategic depth of play, but a side effect is that we seem to be back to 3.5-levels of (possibly unintended?) interactions, especially at higher levels where so many strategic options are interacting. This can lead to relatively big power spikes in very specific circumstances. And the drunken kiwi has a great point: player skill has become a very important factor in creating those circumstances (especially due to the complexity) - which means generalized theory-crafting has become less useful, especially outside of tier 1!

And Fireball vs. Chromatic Orb is a good example. A level 5 player might think, "8d6 save with half damage minimum vs. 5d8 attack roll where I can miss for zero against 3 targets? No contest!" And in most tier 1 situations that is true. But that set of core assumptions can now be altered drastically, especially later on: and it's worth revisiting the spell using those new assumptions.

As Zard said: probably during tier 3 (and definitely by tier 4), attack roll misses just don't have to happen any more. My opinion is that baseline at that point should be 99% chance to hit, not 65%. (There are many reasons why this is true, but that's another thread.) Meanwhile, save DCs and enemy saves can be affected, but not to the same degree. Monsters' baseline 65% chance to fail a save is still probably closer to an ~80% chance. Players also have more options for re-rolling damage dice. And 5.5 Chromatic Orb is perfectly situated to benefit from the combination of those strategic advantages. Casting 6th level Chromatic Orb vs Fireball against 5 targets is a much different choice - one where Chromatic Orb can often be the superior choice - although it takes chewing through a lot of complexity to understand why. And importantly: disregarding the baseline assumptions of 5.0 and 5.5 tier 1 play.

I'm not making judgements here, nor am I saying Chromatic Orb is overpowered. Just that Zard has a good point, and it's worth DMs noting that tier 3 and 4 play in 5.5 is turning out to be less backward compatible.

Chromatic Orb isn't overpowered. Maybe B+.

If you want a damage dealing would it would be my go to for classes lacking better options (most druids, clerics, Bards, warlocks).

Think you're right about about skill. Saw a lot of whiffs yesterday bad luck buy also skill. High AC kept using them vs a +1 wisdom save vs command for example (75% success rate).

Sorcerer player forgot they get to ignore lightning resistance.

Personally I wouldn't bother building a blaster on 5 5. Light Cleric or dragon sorcerer maybe as a hybrid.

 

[wizard71]

Re: the possibility of missing, you can also crit... and, more importantly, there are lots of ways to get advantage/bonuses on the attack- if you're upcasting, it's worth it. Advantage, or using inspiration to make sure you hit.

Crits are 5% chance. People make fun of champion fighters who crit 15% of the time as not worth the investment. Sure if you white room chromatic orb you can come up with a number of excuses but most fall flat. Bless cast on a sorcerer can help slightly. Bardic die is almost worthless since it only impacts a single roll. Gaining advantage is not a guarantee. It has no effect on damage dice rolls which are essential for a bounce. Due to variables involved you get a much better result from fireball than upcasting chromatic orb. Upcasting any spell except healing spells is kind of a waste. It’s a simple option because casters tend to have smaller spell preparation lists compared to 2014 rules.

 

[Zardnaar]

Crits are 5% chance. People make fun of champion fighters who crit 15% of the time as not worth the investment. Sure if you white room chromatic orb you can come up with a number of excuses but most fall flat. Bless cast on a sorcerer can help slightly. Bardic die is almost worthless since it only impacts a single roll. Gaining advantage is not a guarantee. It has no effect on damage dice rolls which are essential for a bounce. Due to variables involved you get a much better result from fireball than upcasting chromatic orb. Upcasting any spell except healing spells is kind of a waste. It’s a simple option because casters tend to have smaller spell preparation lists compared to 2014 rules.

Crits happen just as often as misses (at 95%). Average damage is the same.

Upcasting chromatic orb can drastically up the damage.

Sorcerers have an on tap advantage mechanic.
Lucky feat you get it again.

Generally you use it in your highest level slots. Eg don't fire a 4th level chromatic orb without advantage.

Personally I try not to use attack spelks without 75% or higher hit rate.

5.5 made it really easy to manipulate dice rolls. Sorcerers can manipulate the damage rolls.

A post earlier broke the math down. Level 3 chromatic orb 72%hit chance, level 4 92%.

I found it reading up on a thread comparing chromatic orb to chain lightning. I thought they were joking but they weren't.

ACs in 5E tend to be low, buffing is easy, advantage is easy. 5.5 also makes getting magic items easy. Our sorcerer has a +1 item but theoretically they coukd aquire two +2 items. +13 to hit with advantage level 9 throwing a 7d8 chromatic orb with a 92% chance of bouncing before dice manipulation and a 10 % chance of critting (15% chance with certain feats).

We haven't gone to that extent the sorcerer only has 9 to hit iirc. Throwing it at a paralyzed target is a go to tactic (we have 3 PCs who can cast hold monster now).

Twinned hold monster, innate sorcerery they're going to demolish things fast. Firebal can't do that even upcast.

If you upcast fireball into a level 5 slot you're kind of bad@game. Synaptic static is much better.

5.5 changed encounter rules as well. The DM would pretty much have to collide with the players to make fireball good. That kind of indicates it's a C tier spell.

CR 2 and 3s are packing 50-90 odd hp. At level 8/9 they're essentially fodder. Anything weaker than that save your spells slot for counterspell if nothing else.

5.0 hid a lot of power creep in Xanathars and espicially Tashas. Alot of its in phb now.

 

[Kinematics]

Taking it to an extreme, would you rather deal an average of 50 damage or 100 damage? What if that 50 damage is a 100% chance to hit for 50 damage and the 100 damage is a 1% chance to hit for 10,000 damage?

A valid objection to using average when that average is misleading, but when the potential results are well-distributed, it doesn't really hold. However the point of wanting to know what the distribution looks like is very understandable. The range and shape matters.

Here's an Anydice program looking at Fireball: AnyDice

You get an expected bimodal distribution based on how likely a target is to make the save. The one I have in place is using DC 16, and the creature has a +2 to Dex saves (15 Dex). It has an almost equal chance of taking 14 damage as taking 28 damage, but the overall average is 23.

Mostly, though, this provides a good visualization for possible results. And it's easy enough to change the DC or Dex bonus to look at any changes.

Reliability is important. We've all had those bad luck streaks, especially with attack roll based classes, where despite the odds, we go cold. We miss. Chromatic Orb has two places where we can get an unlikely streak that ends the damage - the attack roll and the d8s. Yes, we can also get that awesome lucky streak that just blows away enemies ... but the unlikely bad streak is more significant. A series of good luck combats can end those combats faster. One bad luck combat can get you a TPK. It just takes once bad series of events in a tough combat. That one bad combat has a much greater impact on the trajectory of the game than a series of good ones.

Getting a look at the distribution for Chromatic Orb is a lot harder to put together.

I wrote an Anydice program to try to get a graph of the results, but unfortunately it won't work at higher than level 1. Level 2 takes more than 5 seconds, and times out. Link: AnyDice

Mostly it looks like you can expect it to be a series of decaying modal hills, depending on how many bounces you get.

 

[jgsugden]

...Here's an Anydice program looking at Fireball: AnyDice

You get an expected bimodal distribution based on how likely a target is to make the save. The one I have in place is using DC 16, and the creature has a +2 to Dex saves (15 Dex). It has an almost equal chance of taking 14 damage as taking 28 damage, but the overall average is 23.
....
I wrote an Anydice program to try to get a graph of the results, but unfortunately it won't work at higher than level 1. Level 2 takes more than 5 seconds, and times out. Link: AnyDice

Mostly it looks like you can expect it to be a series of decaying modal hills, depending on how many bounces you get.

It is easier to do Chromatic Orb in Excel with a series of rolls and a few formulas. Then you can chart the results. I didn't do it myself for this analysis, but I've done similarly complex stuff before.

The most important part of that charting is the Chromatic Orb chart and that fat 20.25% chance of a 0 for damage. Essentially 1 in 5. As you level up, that chance will drop some as your attack chances grow faster than enemy ACs and you get more access to advantage, etc... However, it will always be there.

The reliability element I discuss comes into play when you look at the chances of getting nothing out of your spell. When you get nothing out of your action on turn 1 it has a cascading effect. The enemies that do not fall that would have fallen had you cast a fireball are getting an extra attack off - and then when they fall the attack that took them down could have been on another target that also gets to stay on their feet one extra attack... You really want to make sure you're getting utility out of round 1.

The real disasters happen when you get that little unlucky streak at the start of combat and your enemies get more attacks in than expected. In a D&D campaign, under the guidelines in the 2014 DMG, you should likely have about 250 to 280 encounters between levels 1 and 20. That means that having a chance in excess of about 0.3% of something really bad happening means that really bad thing is more likely than not going to happen along the way. If the chance of a total whiff on a chromatic orb is ~20%, then the odds of it happening 3 times in a row is only 0.8% ... but that is enough for it to happen about three times over 20 levels. When you're the one responsible for crowd control and keeping a series of enemies from getting their attack ... and you end up dealing no damage over three rounds ... well, that can put a heck of a lot of extra damage on the party. It can make a huge difference. That is a real chance of a TPK - and that scenario could happen three times over 20 levels with that probability.

Now, I'd say the odds are actually a bit lower ... but likely still over 0.3%. It may take a while ... but that really bad luck streak will likely happen.

Reliability is really important for maintaining long term success. Having a reasonable risk of a complete whiff is a big problem. That is why I will take the lower average damage, but higher minimum damage, options quite often.

 

[Kinematics]

The most important part of that charting is the Chromatic Orb chart and that fat 20.25% chance of a 0 for damage. Essentially 1 in 5. As you level up, that chance will drop some as your attack chances grow faster than enemy ACs and you get more access to advantage, etc... However, it will always be there.

I should note that I didn't put much effort into that part of the setup. That's the result of a 55% base accuracy (need to roll a 10 or higher to hit), which is somewhat low, and the code doesn't have any considerations for things like Seeking Spell. It does have advantage, though.

Since I couldn't even get it to run a level 2 analysis, I didn't see much point in fine-tuning it.

However, while reliability is definitely important, I would posit you're ignoring lots of other ways for things to be unreliable. The melee fighters are all swinging swords that can miss just as easily as Chromatic Orb. If someone casts Hypnotic Pattern or Hold Person or whatever, if the creatures save then you just kinda wasted your turn. Etc. There is no 100% reliable path.

And while I can understand someone having a preference for a more reliable option than a less reliable one, asserting that the less reliable one is simply the wrong choice solely because of that is not valid. The question is only, is this a viable alternative for someone wanting a different style of play? And I would say that there are enough options for it for the answer to that question to be "Yes".

That's different from just saying it's a pointless alternative. For example, the Tidal Wave spell in Xanathar's. It's 3rd level (like Fireball), and a Dex save (like Fireball), but does 4d8 damage (2/3 as much as Fireball) over a 300 sq ft area (1/4 as much as Fireball, and 1/3 the number of expected targets according to the new DMG), and can knock targets prone if they fail the save.

It is actually in line with guidance for creating a 3rd level spell (a tiny bit less damage than the guideline's 6d6, but with the added rider of knocking prone), and if Fireball was scaled properly for 3rd level, it would be an interesting alternative. But against the existing Fireball spell, it's just, what's even the point?

That's the kind of spell that if someone said, "That's stupid. Don't take it.", I would find it entirely understandable. Although that's because the overtuning of the "iconic" spells makes everything else worse.

It is easier to do Chromatic Orb in Excel with a series of rolls and a few formulas. Then you can chart the results. I didn't do it myself for this analysis, but I've done similarly complex stuff before.

I've tended to use Anydice for dice roll analysis, and Excel for math analysis. I'll see if there's a way to do the dice roll analysis in Excel. The main problem is taming the combinatorial explosion of possible results.