Michael_R_Proteau said:
While I have heard the rumors enough to maintain a healthy level of skepticism until I hear the actual announcement, there is a certain business sense for launching 4E in conjunction with the DI.
One of the drawback to the announcement would be a slow down of sales on 3.5 products, and few companies would want to reduce a revenue stream unless another revenue stream were in place to make up the slack. What would be the new revenue stream for WoTC in the year between announcement and release? DI subscriptions. And what would be the incentive to get a DI subscription for all those who were ambivalent, on the fence or hostile after the cancellation of the Paizo mag license? Why a bird's eye view of the R&D process of 4E with regular updates, previews, and opportunity to offer feedback for subscribers only. Other new revenue streams could include increased revenue form the Dragonlance property once the film is released (if occuring in the gap between announcement and release of 4E), and any new fans/players brought in from the film release could them be directed to the release of the new edition perhaps creating a larger customer base for that as well. Increased sales form the Star Wars Saga Edition rpg during hte gap year could also help stabilize a bottom line for WotC if sales dip after an announcement as well.
Once 4E is ready to launch, you have built your customer base for the DI and created consumer habits, and get a spike in sales and revenue from sales of the new edition.
Now I know nothing for certain, and I certainly have no inside informtion, just making conjecture based on business and consumer theory and patterns I often see while teaching econoomoic history. I am probably wrong, but it was just an idea that seemed apparent from my perspective. If I were to launch a new edition, I would want to do so at a time where I had the resources to replace the revenue stream during the lost gap year and be in a position to maximize my revenue once the new edition was released.
-M
I can see this possiblity as the likely route. Either that, or they will use the DI to reveal the 'road to 4e' getting subscribers who want insights into it and take feedback from subscribers. This would gaurantee subscribers. I don't think 4e will be ready to launch with DI, but an announcement is likely.
As for the comments by other posters about the SRD. The SRD is a base line that anyone can do anything to that doesn't infringe on WOTC's trademarks and copyrights. The D20 liscense gives a lil' bit of ability to tie yourself to their brand that WOTC owns. Nothing in the OGL stops some one from copying the game mechanics of 4e and building on them and publishing as OGL, espcially if the base mechanics (six stats, ability bonses and d20 test) remain the same. That cat is out of the bag, and the OGL is designed to build on with whatever mechanics you like as long as you follow the rules.
The reasons WOTC did this is two fold, on the visionary side Ryan Dancy saw the benefit of sharing mechanics and everyone contributing (which he was right, but few publishers used the OGL to the fullest that they could have) and on the business side it is impossible to legally protect rolling dice, adding modifiers and other basic functions in a RPG because their is no Patent surrounding D&D's mechanics and even if there was, the basic math functions and random numbers are used in so many game systems and programs outside of RPGS and wargames that they would be hard pressed to have any legal ground to stand on. In turn, the WOTC suits gave the project the green light, as all players of their system eventually make their way back to the player's handbook.
I would actually expect to see a developers kit for 4e that includes essentially a d20 liscense, limited ability to reference corebooks and certain supplements (or all of the complete series and so on), perhaps the ability to get the 'officially wotc product' stamp and "maybe" a D&D brand. The license would follow similar code of conduct as before, but WOTC would get a upfront fee and 3rd parties would get more direct tie in (like the video game systems now). They could require a certain level of production standards too.
This approach allows WOTC to make the corebooks and the direct addons, and then 3rd parties can make material with support materials, adventures and campaign settings. Essentially D&D and its core materials would become the game system (like an xbox, wii, PS3) and the adventures, campaigns and support books the video games.
