Stormfalcon said:
Instead of panicking about PCI Express and basing purchases based on its arrival, it's probably smarter to take a wait-and-see attitude towards that (as well as BTX). It'll take a while for true PCI Express cards to hit the market (what we're seeing so far are actually AGP chipsets with bridge circuits as far as video cards are concerned...even the planned 6800-series nVidia cards that are to be PCI Express ones use bridge circuits), and even longer for BTX to hit the shelves in appreciable numbers. For all we know, both PCI Express and BTX will wind up being the MCA of the new millenium (how many of us remember MCA?).
I don't know of any forthcoming chipset that's not PCI Express-capable. And it's a Good Thing, though more because PCI needs replacing than because graphics cards need the extra bandwidth of PCI Express x16 vs AGP 8X. So it's coming.
DDR2 memory is less certain; the 9xx chipsets support DDR, and aren't all that much faster with DDR2 533 than with DDR400, and the Athlon 64's integrated memory controller means that AMD will need to release new CPUs to support DDR2. But memory makers aren't having any trouble producing DDR2 667, so I've got to think that's extremely likely to catch on, too. AMD's pushing back a little, but they're mostly saying "later" to DDR2, not "never", like they were to RAMBUS.
The BTX form factor is the one that might very well not catch on. The case & motherboard people don't like it, and AMD doesn't see the need for it (and the board layout doesn't work well for AMD CPUs). But CPUs keep running hotter (this isn't just a P4 thing), and we might really need something like BTX in a few years.
Still, waiting for the Next Big Thing can keep you in system-purchase paralysis for months or years. I bought a new 3.2 GHz Pentium 4 in April -- just before Intel launched the 9xx chipsets, with PCI Express support, DDR2 memory support, and a new socket design. I'd decided that my 800 MHz Pentium 3 really was getting old, and I'd been "going to replace it soon" for almost a year. And the new PC will be fine for another three years or so, I think.
Ultra-high-end graphics cards will probably be PCI-Express only starting in 2006 sometime, but by that time I'd be able to replace the rest of my system with something better for less than the cost of an ultra-high-end graphics card, and so wouldn't dream of putting one in my box (I imagine a hypothetical GeForce 8800 would be severely CPU-limited by a 3.2 GHz P4, anyway). DDR memory will be around at reasonable prices for a few years after it stops being the normal system memory.