Changeover Poll

[Wicht]

Yeah, I have really no idea. I also get the feeling that 6 months out isn't really all that long of a time.

Especially since we're dealing with a switch from a game that was generally well liked and played (even by those who agree with the changes 4e made) and had lots of support. Sure 6 months out we have more stuff fro 4e then we did at first, but not 8 years woth of stuff.

I think if it's not a flop (and I don't think it is) it's going to be a slower build as more people decide they want to play somethign new, or the game fills up with more options and ideas.

If it was a slow build, you would expect the numbers playing to increase, not decrease. 6 months ago, people said wait another 6 months to really see.

To me, what is almost as telling is this thread is the numbers of people posting elsewhere about already being tired of 4e.

That being said, doing this again, 6 months from now, will be an interesting exercise, giving us three polls to compare.

 

[DaveMage]

I think if it's not a flop (and I don't think it is) it's going to be a slower build as more people decide they want to play somethign new, or the game fills up with more options and ideas.

Past editions of D&D have usually broken under the weight of more options and ideas, so this may not be a good thing.

Also, the cost barrier to entry goes up the more that's released. It's one thing if, as a new player, you're told to buy 1 book (the PHB) vs. if you're told that the best (complete) way to play the game is with PHB1, Martial Power, Divine Power, Adventurer's Vault, and PHB2. That can be a bit intimidating (especially in these economic times). (Although, again, your point about the DDI may mitigate this, so it might not be as big an issue.)

 

[Scribble]

Past editions of D&D have usually broken under the weight of more options and ideas, so this may not be a good thing.

Also, the cost barrier to entry goes up the more that's released. It's one thing if, as a new player, you're told to buy 1 book (the PHB) vs. if you're told that the best (complete) way to play the game is with PHB1, Martial Power, Divine Power, Adventurer's Vault, and PHB2. That can be a bit intimidating (especially in these economic times). (Although, again, your point about the DDI may mitigate this, so it might not be as big an issue.)

You could be right. I'm no expert on game sales.

I will say though that I do have my own experience with GURPS? GURPS 4e came out, and I got the basic rules. I really liked it, played a short camapign but stopped because none of the expansion stuff was out yet. It got annoying trying to keep track of all the little changes here and there I had to keep making to use my 3rd edition stuff with 4e GURPS.

Now that there's more stuff out the next time I'm looking to play a GURPS game it's going to be be 4e.

 

[Dragon Snack]

That's a huge leap. HUGE.

But aren't you making a huge leap in the opposite direction? Can you consider that you are allowing yourself to be influenced by your own opinions of the game?

I think it's far more likely that if you are playing "a little bit" then you aren't remotely invested enough to buy the books and certainly not to keep current on the game.

(I assume by keeping current you meant keeping current on buying products-- as opposed to just keeping up on the news.)

I was thinking both actually. If you are playing even a little bit, you are a possible sale for any new book (or the DDI). Not every player buys EVERY book (no matter what the system). However, the fact that they play puts them in the market for the book, if something in it strikes their fancy. If they don't play, they are not in the market for whatever is in a 4.0 book (of course we have collectors or completists, but you know what I mean).

I had a player in my D&D game who only owned the 3.0 PHB for a long time. Then I found a used 3.5 pocket PHB for him. Then suddenly he bought the Spell Compendium when it came out. If he wasn't playing 3.x he would have had no reason to buy it.

I know people who've been playing various RPGs for years without buying a single book. <snip>

In other words, I very much doubt that those who play "a little" own more than the 4E PHB.

While I know there are people who play without buying even one book, I have to believe those are anomalies. I'm sure they exist (there is even one in my Savage Worlds game - and Explorer's Edition is only $10!), but how many are there, especially here. If you're coming to ENWorld to vote in a poll of what you play, you're probably invested enough to buy a book for a game that you're playing.

 

[Sammael]

Well, I did say they bought the 4E PHB, didn't I? I also left the possibility that they may buy PHB2. That's one book per year. For comparison, I used to buy 10 or so WotC books every year, and now I don't buy any. In other words, for each me WotC lost, they had to gain 10 people who buy "a little." Now, this poll cannot be used to analyze that fresh blood, but it can be used to extrapolate that WotC needs a whole lot of fresh blood to replace 58% hardcore RPG geeks who are no longer buying their products (or are buying in a greatly diminished capacity).

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

But aren't you making a huge leap in the opposite direction?

It's a leap on my part, in the opposite direction-- but not huge.

I'd say the burden of proof is heavier for you to suggest that folks who aren't playing very often are nevertheless buying heavily into the game. It's an odd claim.

Can you consider that you are allowing yourself to be influenced by your own opinions of the game?

The rather obvious assertion that 32% is about 1/3 is not my opinion.

And what, exactly, do you think my opinion of the game is, such that my analysis of this poll would be less than objective?

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

First, can we stop the with the 2/3 thing? I'm not a fan of 4.0, but 58-59% is NOT two thirds. A 'partial' changeover IS a changeover, to not include them with the others is disingenuous.

There is a good reason that I am using the 2/3rds analysis. Please allow me to explain.

- I felt that the Changeover Category deserved not only those who are now Purist 4E (Option 1) but also Mostly 4E (Option 2.)
- I categorized No Changeover as those who *only* play Earlier Editions though, either because they never attempted 4E (Option 7) or *completely went back* to earlier editions (Option 6.)
Those who are Mostly Earlier Editions, I counted as Partial Changeover.

The burden of proof to nay-say 4E, as it were, was on those who would nay-say it. You had to really say No to 4E, to count as No Changeover in this poll. If you played ANY 4E, you counted as Partial Changeover or Changeover (look at my options, see that this is true.)
In this respect, this poll leans towards 4E. It is 4E friendly.
Again, to be in the No Changeover category, you have to really say it. NO 4E. (again, look at the options.)

As of 990 votes, the results were:

Changeover: 32% (Options 1 and 2)
No Changeover: 59% (Options 6 and 7)
Partial Changeover: 9% (Options 3, 4, and 5)
Option 6: 31%

That's 59%, saying No to 4E. Not just generally No, not mostly No, but absolutely No. No 4E at all. Entirely earlier editions.

(apologetic look)

Not my fault or my doing. People chose, not me, how they would respond to this poll.

But another couple of percent are saying Almost Entirely Earlier Editions.
Yet more are saying Mostly Earlier Editions.
Some are saying Half and Half.

And some have chimed in, and informed me that they have quit the hobby since 4E was introduced. Their posts are earlier in this thread.

So if that is factored in, we really are talking about 2 out of 3, or at the very least 6 out of 10.

This poll does surprise me. I fully expected to see a 70% (or so) changeover to 4.0, only it seems to be going in reverse. I would have assumed that as more books were released and more options were added that the resistance to change would wane. Maybe in time this will be the case, but it appears that WotC will have a ways to go to try to recapture those that have turned away. They most certainly have lost momentum.

Yes. The number of votes for Option 6 is surprising. 31% to 32%.
A lot of people who were in the Partial Changeover category, and some in the Changeover category, are now in the No Changeover category.
That, also, caused me to lean towards the 2/3rds.
There really seems to be a lot of people who are turning to Option 6.

Has this poll been done on the WotC/Gleemax boards? I don't bother with them anymore (they lost my account in the gleemax fiasco and they were a pain to access/read anyway). I'm sure it would skew more to the changeover side of the equation, but it could be very telling...

I have not put any polls up there.
If someone else wishes to, it would be telling, yes.

Edena_of_Neith

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

There is still time to make a difference in this poll. A mere 10 votes equals a 1% change in the results.
ENWorld has thousands of posters, thousands of additional lurkers.

If people will come in and vote in this poll, we can obtain a clearer and clearer picture of things. I really think that, at least.

 

[DaveMage]

Edena: If you do this poll again down the road, please make it a public poll.

 

[Darkwolf71]

There is still time to make a difference in this poll. A mere 10 votes equals a 1% change in the results.
ENWorld has thousands of posters, thousands of additional lurkers.

If people will come in and vote in this poll, we can obtain a clearer and clearer picture of things. I really think that, at least.

Unlikely. The percentages have been amazingly consistant for pretty much the entire poll. And deviation of more than a point or two either way would be highly suspect.