D&D and the rising pandemic

[GreyLord]

We're seeing very low reports of deaths coming from the USA right now.

New cases every day dropped to 20k/day May 10th and have stayed there so new cases aren't really dropping.

Active cases have been steadily climbing. There were 900k active cases on May 1st and now there are 1.14 million.

And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.

With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?

If New York is taken out of the data then the rate of infection is still continuing to climb throughout May. Yet, the death count is dropping.

I think Florida is controlling and in ways concealing information. I think there are other states that are doing this as well.

I find it a shame that they want things to be their way so badly that they would conceal data that could be used for science and medicine rather than actually admit what may be happening in their states and areas.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?

This is probably likely. Florida (and Georgia) could've just been stupid and got caught. Or, somehow people stopped dying as much for some reason, or are taking longer to die.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

In the USA, we basically have 100,000 deaths as of today. Just 500 less than 100,000 and those numbers are probably higher because many dead people aren't tested.

 

[Umbran]

And yet, death counts have been dropping rapidly. Today saw 500 deaths and yesterday was 600. That's only 2 days so I suppose we will see what tomorrow brings.

With the above numbers I would expect more deaths though.

Do you think with states like Florida controlling and manipulating the information they're giving out we're not seeing the full picture?

Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data. We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity. It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.

As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).

It is... really spiky. You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two. You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall. In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.

 

[ad_hoc]

US always has deep dips in reported numbers on weekends. And today is Memorial Day, so this weekend was three days long. Tomorrow the numbers should hop back up again as reporting agencies return from vacation and play catch up on the stats.

Oh Memorial Day, that makes sense.

 

[ad_hoc]

Though Theo already mentioned this... no, a dip for a couple days is not evidence of doctoring data. We must note that getting from the death itself, though a chain of reports, to a graph or data you see, is a chain of human activity. It has dips on weekends, and often spikes come Monday.

As an example, this is a graph of daily increase in cases in Massachusetts (from WBUR.org, a local NPR station).
View attachment 122290

It is... really spiky. You don't want to draw any conclusions from change over a day or two. You want to look at longer term trends to get an idea of what is happening overall. In this graph, you see daily variation, but also a long term rise, and then a gradual falling off in new cases.

Yeah, I am used to seeing the spike on Monday which is why I found it odd.

A holiday in the US makes sense.

Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.

I suppose we'll have to see what this week brings.

 

[Umbran]

Still, deaths are trending down in general while cases are not.

If you are talking nationwide? There are many possible explanations. Including: NYC, California, and Boston and other early areas of breakout are getting a handle on things, and their health care systems are no longer quite as overwhelmed, and care is such that folks aren't dying.

Meanwhile, in other areas, cases are starting to pick up... but people aren't dying... yet. People don't catch it and die on the same day. They can take days or weeks to get from reported case to death.

That's only a demonstrative example - I don't know what's actually happening.

 

[Eltab]

Or, somehow people stopped dying as much for some reason

What comes to mind immediately is, the newer cases are not nursing home residents, and more likely to get through it (but may take a while) in the end.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

What comes to mind immediately is, the newer cases are not nursing home residents, and more likely to get through it (but may take a while) in the end.

Possibly combined with hospitals being less crowded, more ventilators, and so on.

 

[Zardnaar]

It's just the way pandemics work. Anyone vulnerable that gets it dies early

Eventually you start running out of vulnerable people so numbers fall. One way or another numbers going to eventually go down.

If they can keep it out of rest homes that's going to help.

NZ active cases down to 22, 0 new cases. Job losses kicking in now.