D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

It seems like there should be some (large) category between “hit” and “flop,” though I’d agree it isn’t doing franchise numbers in a modern context. Just another reason the modern context sucks.

I’m just glad they made a good movie.

I did indicate it may not be clear. I didn't put a figure on it but it would have been around 300-400 maybe 450 million.

That's the X2+marketing levels. At time of posting we didn't have a figure on the cost of the movie or marketing. I thought it was around 100 million it wasn't.

Typical movies are approximately production cost +50% marketingX2 for a rough figure (or productionX2.5).

375-450million would be it's guesstimate break even point. If it broke that any back end income is pure gravy.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

The Ringer's newest podcast talks about how hard it is to determine what constitutes a hit, especially with movies that are destined to be tentpoles for streaming services, like DADHAT will likely be for Paramount+: Is ‘Air’ a Hit? Why That’s Harder Than Ever to Answer.

 

[Jaeger]

I'm saying that "I looked it up on the internet, so therefore I am as qualified as people who do this for a living" is a hell of a way to go through life.

Cite me one 'industry' article that does not use the exact same Box office numbers as the articles dismissed as 'clickbaity'. Or the ones being used by Zardnaar and I.

I'll wait.

While we're waiting...

Here are two positive articles about D&D's opening weekend using the same box office numbers.
One from a 'clickbaity' site and one form an industry "professional" site.

If you read both articles, not knowing which one was in Variety and which in Screenrant; would you be able to tell the difference between the "Professional" and the "Clickbaity" article?

Box Office: ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ Plunders $15.3 Million Opening Day

Paramount's "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves" looks to top the box office in its debut, besting the second weekend of "John Wick: Chapter 4."

variety.com

New DnD Movie Box Office Might Outgross The Original In Just One Weekend

DnD: Honor Among Thieves is now playing.

screenrant.com

Like night and day right?

Right?

How sure are you that this is a flop?

Pretty sure.

Why?

Because we can easily compare this movies current box office run with that of other films, made for similar amounts, that have had similar box office results.

Since, you know, this is simply basic math

Yes, yes it is.

Would you promise to delete your account if they announce a sequel later this month?

As you will not promise to delete your account if they don't, this is a pointlessly aggressive tone to take.

Other than the pros, as people keep pointing out to you.

Argumentum ad verecundiam.

Nobody here has challenged the Box office figures used.

Typical movies are approximately production cost +50% marketingX2 for a rough figure

^This^

D&D probably needs to hit $450m just to break even. $400m at a minimum.

 

[Zardnaar]

Cite me one 'industry' article that does not use the exact same Box office numbers as the articles dismissed as 'clickbaity'. Or the ones being used by Zardnaar and I.

I'll wait.

While we're waiting...

Here are two positive articles about D&D's opening weekend using the same box office numbers.
One from a 'clickbaity' site and one form an industry "professional" site.

If you read both articles, not knowing which one was in Variety and which in Screenrant; would you be able to tell the difference between the "Professional" and the "Clickbaity" article?

Box Office: ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ Plunders $15.3 Million Opening Day

Paramount's "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves" looks to top the box office in its debut, besting the second weekend of "John Wick: Chapter 4."

variety.com

New DnD Movie Box Office Might Outgross The Original In Just One Weekend

DnD: Honor Among Thieves is now playing.

screenrant.com

Like night and day right?

Right?




Pretty sure.

Why?

Because we can easily compare this movies current box office run with that of other films, made for similar amounts, that have had similar box office results.




Yes, yes it is.




As you will not promise to delete your account if they don't, this is a pointlessly aggressive tone to take.




Argumentum ad verecundiam.

Nobody here has challenged the Box office figures used.




^This^

D&D probably needs to hit $450m just to break even. $400m at a minimum.

Well 375 million using the 2.5 thing since the marketing budget is unknown. High 300's seems to be throwing around.

Anything over 300 million might greenlight a sequel due to the back end. Backend has to probably plug a 100 million+ hole.

At around 200 million its not looking good for a sequel IMHO only.

 

[FrogReaver]

Well 375 million using the 2.5 thing since the marketing budget is unknown. High 300's seems to be throwing around.

Anything over 300 million might greenlight a sequel due to the back end. Backend has to probably plug a 100 million+ hole.

At around 200 million its not looking good for a sequel IMHO only.

I posted the graph earlier, but box office only accounts for about 50% of move revenue streams (not counting merchandising). So if the box office is 100 million revenue, and the streaming/tv/dvd sales make another 100 million (as expected by the revenue split) then we are getting close to budget of movie and ads. Tack on merchandising and there could be a nice profit due to the movie. Couple that with the desire to use the movies as part of their Brand Building strategy and I wouldn't be so quick to rule out a sequel.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Somebody could say it is passing without pain or glory. I reject the idea it has been a failure. Maybe it hasn't made more money as wished, but the doors shouldn't be closed for future new projects.

And we can't measure with numbers yet the increase in popularity. This was the main goal, creating a loyal audience rather than collecting profits.

And maybe other cinematographic studios dares to follow the same steps. If I was Hasbro I would worry Disney was interested into Paizo's Pathfinder, but after Willow..

 

[mamba]

And we can't measure with numbers yet the increase in popularity. This was the main goal, creating a loyal audience rather than collecting profits.

that was the main goal according to whom?

How do you determine whether it did create a loyal audience (ie one that didn’t exist before and returns for the next movie) rather than it just finding the existing audience for a movie such as this?

And maybe other cinematographic studios dares to follow the same steps. If I was Hasbro I would worry Disney was interested into Paizo's Pathfinder, but after Willow..

I don’t think Paizo has the name or brand recognition for this. If anyone did, have fun explaining how this is neither generic fantasy nor D&D

 

[Zardnaar]

I posted the graph earlier, but box office only accounts for about 50% of move revenue streams (not counting merchandising). So if the box office is 100 million revenue, and the streaming/tv/dvd sales make another 100 million (as expected by the revenue split) then we are getting close to budget of movie and ads. Tack on merchandising and there could be a nice profit due to the movie. Couple that with the desire to use the movies as part of their Brand Building strategy and I wouldn't be so quick to rule out a sequel.

I'm not ruling iy out. I think it's unlikely but far from impossible.

They turned in a good movie by most accounts if nothing else that should mitigate the stench of the 2000 one. Kind of has cult classic written all over it.

The mistake was probably jumping to a large budget movie without building off a successful TV show or video game maybe.

Shadow and Bone season 1 for example cost 60 something million and it's one of the best fantasy shows on the various streaming services beaten only by House of the Dragon and maybe Sandman (if it counts as fantasy) maybe Witcher ymmv of course.

 

[Zardnaar]

Somebody could say it is passing without pain or glory. I reject the idea it has been a failure. Maybe it hasn't made more money as wished, but the doors shouldn't be closed for future new projects.

And we can't measure with numbers yet the increase in popularity. This was the main goal, creating a loyal audience rather than collecting profits.

And maybe other cinematographic studios dares to follow the same steps. If I was Hasbro I would worry Disney was interested into Paizo's Pathfinder, but after Willow..

Article I posted early pointed out there's been a lot of bad fantasy movies and shows since LotR movies. Harry Potter, LotR and GoT are exceptions and even then final season of GoT.

 

[Zardnaar]

that was the main goal according to whom?

How do you determine whether it did create a loyal audience (ie one that didn’t exist before and returns for the next movie) rather than it just finding the existing audience for a movie such as this?


I don’t think Paizo has the name or brand recognition for this. If anyone did, have fun explaining how this is neither generic fantasy nor D&D

Pathfinder has Golarion but I think they wouk
ld gave to use one of the more non standard areas eg Not Egypt.

Otherwise you're right.