D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[mamba]

Paramount could be driven to produce an animated epic fantasy for Nickelodeon. For example a relatively kid-friendly version (or spiritual succesor) of Dark Sun.

of all the worlds you could have picked to make kids-friendly…

The incomes are going to arrive later Paramount wanted, but there are some external circustances. It is not fault by movie itself.

while there are external circumstances, blaming it all on them seems wrong.

The opening week already wasn’t where it would need to be to break even at the box office. Mario the week after had only a minor impact. It’s not like HAT stopped having viewers altogether, it had a pretty normal drop-off rate.

 

[bedir than]

of all the worlds you could have picked to make kids-friendly…


while there are external circumstances, blaming it all on them seems wrong.

The opening week already wasn’t where it would need to be to break even at the box office. Mario the week after had only a minor impact. It’s not like HAT stopped having viewers altogether, it had a pretty normal drop-off rate.

Domestic drop was 61%. To hit budget the goal was 40%. To suggest that Mario didn't have anything to do with that is to miss that Mario nearly doubled its expected weekend 1

 

[MwaO]

You said it would hit 225 million. I said that estimate seems too high given the current state.

I got no dog in the race about any other projections.

Yeah, I think it does $90M domestic, $100-110M international at this point with the $90M maybe a touch too high and need another week to see how international does.

 

[FrogReaver]

Yeah, I think it does $90M domestic, $100-110M international at this point with the $90M maybe a touch too high and need another week to see how international does.

I think it’ll settle 175 million total.

 

[mamba]

Domestic drop was 61%. To hit budget the goal was 40%.

not sure what you mean by to hit budget, turning a profit? 60% drop off is not that unusual, it’s not like 40% is guaranteed / can be expected.

Even so, we are talking about 10% (half of 20%, the rest goes to the theatres) of 30M or so. If you extend it out past the second week this is maybe 5M difference for Paramount / Hasbro

To suggest that Mario didn't have anything to do with that is to miss that Mario nearly doubled its expected weekend 1

I did not say it had nothing to do with it, I said it had a minor impact, which it did. You try to lay all the blame on Mario when it is more 80/20, with the 20% being Mario

 

[MwaO]

I think it’ll settle 175 million total.

It would be kind of odd if it didn't hit approximately $90M domestic and didn't get slightly more international than domestic, so $175M is almost certainly low.

 

[Kinematics]

My own guesstimate is $85M domestic and $95M international, for about $180M total.

 

[Zardnaar]

not sure what you mean by to hit budget, turning a profit? 60% drop off is not that unusual, it’s not like 40% is guaranteed / can be expected.

Even so, we are talking about 10% (half of 20%, the rest goes to the theatres) of 30M or so. If you extend it out past the second week this is maybe 5M difference for Paramount / Hasbro


I did not say it had nothing to do with it, I said it had a minor impact, which it did. You try to lay all the blame on Mario when it is more 80/20, with the 20% being Mario

Typical drop off is 45% apparently. John Wick had over 60% drop off.

Even with Mario in play D&D had a reasonable drop off. The 60% was only one day.

The main problem was week 1 not being high enough. Needed around double or 18.6% drop off apparently. I only crunched it out at approx 30%. 30% was looking very marginal as well.

My final pick is 200 million +/-10%. 180-220 million. On current trajectory it's going to get around 30 million next few weeks. They'll probably pull it from theatres around then. See what the drop off is this week (I used 50%).

 

[Myrdin Potter]

I finally added to the box office today. Went to Toronto on business and slipped in a 12:20 showing. One small step towards break even.

 

[ThrorII]

I really think all the 'talk around' in here is the disconnect between 'financial flop' and 'critical flop'.

D&D:HAT is a financial flop. It will fail to earn its budget during its theatrical run. The streaming contracts or Blu-ray sales may help to near a break even point, but that is not certain.

D&D:HAT is undoubtedly a critical success. It is well received by audiences and critics alike. It will most likely be a cult classic.

If the suits at eOne feel that despite its financial failure, that the IP is strong, or perhaps accounting gimmicks change the bottom line of the movie, and that a second run will do better, then they might green light a sequel.