D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

Since every one seems to be debating what the industry people's are saying, I did a few google searches on the movie just to see what I could find. My goal was not to find reviews of the movie (I think we all agree the movie has reviewed very well) but the articles actually commenting on the movie's financials and success or failure.

Here is some things I dug up, in chronological order (ergo later reports should in theory be more accurate). Note I am just looking at what google is giving me, just to get a feel for what is coming up. I won't say one source is any better than another, you are welcome to make your own judgements.

Note: My assessment or hit or flop is not based on the titles (which often are more extreme) but what the article actually says. So for example articles that are praising the movie but also says "its unclear whether the movie will be profitable" I put in neutral.

April 1st
Hollywood Reporter - No opinion, purely factual - ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ Heads for $40M Box Office Opening

April 2nd
Cinema Blend - Neutral - Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Rolls Well In Its Opening Weekend At Box Office

Indie Wire - Slightly on Hit - ‘Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves’ Brings Honor to the Box Office

Hollywood Reporter - Slighty on Hit - Box Office: ‘Dungeons & Dragons’ Opens to OK $38.5M in North America

April 3rd
Bounding into Comics - Flop - 'Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves' Predicted To Be A Flop Despite Better Opening Weekend Box Office Haul Than Originally Predicted

April 5th
Screenrant - Neutral - 5 Reasons Dungeons & Dragons’ Box Office Is So Big (& Crushed The Original)

April 13th
Project Casting - Hit - 'Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves' To Hit Box Office Opening of $40 Million USD | Project Casting

April 15th
Looper - Slightly Flop - Why Fantasy Movies Are In A Box Office Rut

April 16th
Tenkar's Tavern - Neutral - Two Weeks in: D&D Honor Among Thieves

April 17th
Yahoo Entertainment - Flop - ‘Super Mario Bros.’ Has Dropped a Bob-omb on ‘Dungeons & Dragons’ Box Office Hopes

Pretty much the ones I've found. You don't really been to be told what to think though the numbers are staring you in the face.

 

[Myrdin Potter]

It's not. That is my entire point. NOBODY in the industry is using that formula anymore, because it's missing a major component of profits. For some movies, whatever it makes at box office is considered purely bonus money and it makes ALL of its money back from streaming. Nothing about that formula is "still valid" for this kind of question given how much it is missing.




The pandemic is considered over but Hollywood is permanently changed from it. How they calculate profits from a movie is no longer based on that formula. RIGHT NOW THIS WEEK the writers of Hollywood voted to authorize a strike partially on this very issue. This is the #1 big issue with movie profitability formulas right now and you and Zard are trying to hand-waive it as $0 because you don't have the necessary data to apply it to your outdated formula. That's not how math works. If you don't have the data and you don't have a good basis to guess on the answer (and you don't) you just say that and you use what indications you have from those who do have access to the data. You don't just make up an answer based on your own guesses from the outside with zero to go on.



Yes. I absolutely believe that (and it's not that large a hole at all). And I believe that because the people who have access to all the data seem to all think that's the case.

Did you actually think, as an amateur with no access to most of the relevant data, that your personal instincts were better than the experts who do have access to the data?




I don't have access to the relevant data, much like you do not. So I am making no guess, and purely going off what the studio seems to think. WHICH IS ALL THAT MATTERS FOR THIS QUESTION. There is no meaning to that question other than what the studio seems to think. It being marked as a hit of flop by you or mean has no impact on anything meaningful in life - all that we should be caring about here is if the studio thinks it's a hit or flop. They seem to be, right now, thinking it's in the hit category.



My post wasn't about streaming exclusives in any way. Nothing stretched at all in my point. When a movie is released to both theaters and then streaming, the current formula used by the studio to determine if they made money or lost money includes, as a meaningful portion, the streaming revenue. Which is a very complicated question, but which determines what people in that industry are paid for their work on such movies.

I don’t get it. You say in one breath that I am wrongheaded because I am not taking into account what the industry is using today.

In the next you say you are as clueless as me.

How does that reconcile? How do you know that there is this new formula when you have so little knowledge that you can explain how for sure the box office hole will be covered.

 

[Vaalingrade]

Is there a bet that this is riding on or something?

How much money is changing hands if Enworld is convinced this movie was a flop?

That's the only way I can see to this being this important.

 

[Older Beholder]

I'm not too fussed if people want to claim the film a hit or a flop.
I'm just happy they made a decent film that captured the feel of Dungeons and Dragons. I'd rather the film flop doing that than be a mega hit only to poorly represent the game.

 

[Zardnaar]

Looks like at best it has around 4 weeks left in its theatrical run.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - Apple TV

A charming thief and a band of unlikely adventurers undertake an epic heist to retrieve a lost relic, but things go dangerously awry when they run afo…

itunes.apple.com

VOD May 16.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Looks like at best it has around 4 weeks left in its theatrical run.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves - Apple TV

A charming thief and a band of unlikely adventurers undertake an epic heist to retrieve a lost relic, but things go dangerously awry when they run afo…

itunes.apple.com

VOD May 16.

Not a bad decision probably.
I will watch it as soon as it comes out.

Also: your numbers were right from the beginning. I really did not expect Mario to dwarf anything else.

What I see is that quite a few people are still burnt by the old D&D movie, which made them not consider HAT.

So even though it is not a financial hit, it might still be valuable in the long run.

 

[Zardnaar]

Not a bad decision probably.
I will watch it as soon as it comes out.

Also: your numbers were right from the beginning. I really did not expect Mario to dwarf anything else.

What I see is that quite a few people are still burnt by the old D&D movie, which made them not consider HAT.

So even though it is not a financial hit, it might still be valuable in the long run.

No point blaming eanything in particular. Mario didn't cause a massive drop off of D&D box office.

Main problem at the end of the day is that it's a D&D movie with probably 5-10 contributing factors.

Alternative reality 20% drop-off (I've heard 18.6% was the magic number).

Week 1 70 million,
week 2 56,
Week 3 45
36
29
23
18
14

291 million after 8 weeks

The article that predicted a flop week 1 was correct. 20% drop off is better than Mario. With its reasonably decent drop of rate it got it needed around double week 1.

50% drop (it was around 45% ish)

140
70
35
18
9
5

280ish after 6 weeks I'll be generous and top it up 30 million it was better than 50% drop off. That's 310.

Didn't have much of a chance really short of a stupidly large week 1. Screwed before it was released.

 

[Velderan]

Is there a bet that this is riding on or something?

How much money is changing hands if Enworld is convinced this movie was a flop?

That's the only way I can see to this being this important.

It's ENworld so any time people disagree we must go at least 48 pages back and forth because surely that's the magic number where one side will finally say "you're right, I hadn't considered the fact you just presented for the 8th time and your argument makes sense".

The good news is we're almost there, so this argument will resolve itself any moment now..

Any moment..

 

[UngeheuerLich]

It's ENworld so any time people disagree we must go at least 48 pages back and forth because surely that's the magic number where one side will finally say "you're right, I hadn't considered the fact you just presented for the 8th time and your argument makes sense".

You are mistaken. It is not 48 pages. But it is 2 weeks that actually make statistics based on speculation into statistics based on actual facts...*

Of course it was statistics before, but the margin of error got smaller and smaller.

 

[Velderan]

You are mistaken. It is not 48 pages. But it is 2 weeks that actually make statistics based on speculation into statistics based on actual facts...*

Of course it was statistics before, but the margin of error got smaller and smaller.