D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[mamba]

Yes I did and you still overshot the target by $100M.

how is the target with marketing < 300M, are you forgetting the factor of 2?

 

[mamba]

Paramount is the producer. Again, this is all discussed in detail upthread.

yes they are, P+ still has to pay P for streaming, they are separate entities in this regard, aren’t they.

So P+ can still make money from streaming without P making money from making the movie in the first place (or vice versa, theoretically)

 

[mamba]

A movie about which there's no doubt of hit or flop. It's at 24 million globally, after being out just over three weeks. It cost 65 million to make.

you are forgetting streaming and all the other stuff that is being pointed out for HAT here all the time

 

[Zardnaar]

Yes I did and you still overshot the target by $100M.


Naw it's still newer in some international outlets.


I've discussed this pretty extensively in this very thread. We will not get hard data on streaming - the WGA strike and likely upcoming DGA is in part over that very issue. All we can know is indications from the studio itself. If they behave like this is a flop then the streaming numbers are lower than expected. If they behave like it was a hit then the streaming numbers are within or exceeding expectations. Every indication we've had so far is the movie exceeded expectations.

That is imperfect data. But welcome to the post-pandemic of movie analysis. There is no longer good data because streaming information is kept secret, even from shareholders. All we know, with absolute certainty, is the studios do consider streaming to be a very meaningful portion of profits for a movie now, where pre-pandemic they didn't and lumped it in with rentals and dvd/bluray sales.

And really all that ever meant anything about the "hit or flop" designation was what the studio thought. What WE thought never changed anything. If the studio is happy with the result, that's all "hit" really ever meant.

Here's the context on the exceeded expectations.

Prerelease they track early sales. They project an opening weekend


HAT did exceed that by less than 10%. People got excited.

BUT those expectations were really low for a 150 million dollar movie. It wasn't a Paramount projection but an industry one based on pre-sales.

We don't know marketing budget so people used the 2.5 number to get 375 million approx break even point.


GotG3 Variety has reported 250 million production plus 100 million marketing which means an approximate 700 million required to break even at the box office.

Paramount won't be working out how much money HAT made but how much it lost as they're losing money on streaming as well.

 

[bedir than]

We don't know marketing budget so people used the 2.5 number to get 375 million approx break even point.

The only people using 2.5 are people who think that the pandemic and streaming hasn't changed

 

[Zardnaar]

The only people using 2.5 are people who think that the pandemic and streaming hasn't changed

It's still relevant for tge box office.


The pandemic didn't change tgat much except that counting in streaming and VoD was a mugs game.

They had movied that woukd make hundreds of millions make tens of millions on streaming.

It's why you had movies like Top Gun release last year vs height of pandemic.

It's why starting from May 19 you're getting a blockbuster every week pretty much. Lots of movies were held back or delayed.

If anything they're moving back to cinema releases. You want to produce a movie and sell it to a streamer not be a streamer and produce your own. Netflix might be the one exception.

If your movie makes bank at the theatre any backend is pure profit.

 

[bedir than]

It's still relevant for tge box office.

No. It is not. No industry professional is saying 2.5 any more.

 

[Zardnaar]

No. It is not. No industry professional is saying 2.5 any more.

If a movie does make 2.5 or more though it's undeniable it made money though right? That's all I'm basically saying.

If HAT made 375 million even if it's had a bigger marketing budget the backend mist likely would nske it profitable.

Paramount can shuffle money around but There's a 150mill8on (approx).

 

[Jaeger]

The only people using 2.5 are people who think that the pandemic and streaming hasn't changed

Production + Marketing x2 is Also still commonly used.

But maybe I'm putting too much stock in the Bona fides of:

Clickbaity industry sites like - Variety:

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

James Cameron says that "Avatar: The Way of Water" will need to become the fourth or fifth highest-grossing movie in history in order to break even.

variety.com

Quoting some director named - James Cameron:

That means, according to Cameron, that if “Avatar: The Way of Water” wants to break even, it’ll need to overtake either “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” ($2.07 billion) or “Avengers: Infinity War” ($2.05 billion) in the fourth or fifth slots, respectively.

Avatar 2's Massive $1 Billion-Plus Expenses Revealed (New Data)

New data revealed just how expensive Avatar: The Way of Water really was.

thedirect.com

But, perhaps James Cameron knew what he was doing after all:

It made $2.32 billion worldwide...

 

[bedir than]

Production + Marketing x2 is Also still commonly used.

But maybe I'm putting too much stock in the Bona fides of:

Clickbaity industry sites like - Variety:

‘Avatar 2’ Is So Expensive It Must Become the ‘Fourth or Fifth Highest-Grossing Film in History’ Just to Break Even

James Cameron says that "Avatar: The Way of Water" will need to become the fourth or fifth highest-grossing movie in history in order to break even.

variety.com

Quoting some director named - James Cameron:

Avatar 2's Massive $1 Billion-Plus Expenses Revealed (New Data)

New data revealed just how expensive Avatar: The Way of Water really was.

thedirect.com

But, perhaps James Cameron knew what he was doing after all:

It made $2.32 billion worldwide...

I've never denied 2x for modern box office success. I've merely added that I expect a sequel and that in the end both Paramount and Hasbro will be pleased with the money they made because of licensing, merch, game sales, and streaming.

You should probably note that the original post that @Zardnaar wrote talked about overall financial success before focusing on merely the box office.