Dear Hasbro: about those minis

[CharlesRyan]

Only two people with actual experience in this area of business have posted in this thread, Charles Ryan and Chris Pramas, and it doesn’t seem that they are in agreement.

Um, unless I'm misunderstanding someone here, I am in complete agreement. Similar non-random business models have fared unfavorably in comparison to the random business model. I absolutely agree with that statement.

Let me introduce you to a little company called Games Workshop. They are the biggest and most profitable miniatures company in existence. Nothing WotC has done has with DDM has changed that. The existence of companies like GW, Privateer, and Reaper proves that the non-random distribution is absolutely possible.

So why does GW continue to eat WotC for breakfast in the minis market?

Games Workshop is an interesting example, but be careful not to confuse two different business phenomena at work here. GW is a market leader and innovator, in the same way that D&D is the RPG market leader and innovator. By that I mean that they both pioneered and grabbed an early, massive lead in their respective categories. (I don't mean that they're necessarily innovative today or throughout their lives.)

It's a truism of business--all business, not just games--that a market leader of this sort is virtually impossible to knock off, unless they blunder horribly or the marketplace changes dramatically and they don't react. Despite enormous ups and downs over the past 30 years, D&D remains the undisputed king of RPGs, in terms of sales, players, and brand recognition. No competitor has any real chance of changing that unless there's a massive shift in the marketplace that WotC ignores, or WotC otherwise completely screws up D&D (screws it up even worse than TSR did, because even that didn't topple D&D).

GW is in the same position with minis.

GW's market and brand position is such that it would take an enormous effort, and 10s of millions of dollars, for any company even to sidle up toward a close second place to them. Which, in turn, means that the marketplace really doesn't have room for another miniatures line based on the same nonrandom model.

This plays itself out in the LGS pretty obviously: retailers that devote enough shelf space to carry a full line of GW don't generally have enough resources to support a second large line of nonrandom minis.

So GW actually becomes a counter-argument: There's a powerful market leader that already dominates the non-random minis business. It would be suicidal for WotC to try to beat GW at their own game; they're much better off (and so are any gamers who want to have D&D miniatures) doing something very different and growing the market in a different direction.

[As an aside, it's arguable whether DDM has not affected GW, or that GW continues "to eat WotC for breakfast." Yes, GW is huge in the minis market--much bigger than WotC--but you might want to check their recent shareholders reports before citing them so vehemently. And comparing Privateer and Reaper to DDM is a little like comparing Spycraft to D&D.]

 

[Vanuslux]

Only two people with actual experience in this area of business have posted in this thread, Charles Ryan and Chris Pramas, and it doesn’t seem that they are in agreement.

Let me introduce you to a little company called Games Workshop. They are the biggest and most profitable miniatures company in existence. Nothing WotC has done has with DDM has changed that. The existence of companies like GW, Privateer, and Reaper proves that the non-random distribution is absolutely possible.

So why does GW continue to eat WotC for breakfast in the minis market?

GW has the position they do by riding on a massive market share that they had before the idea of random minis and I'll eat chicken livers if their market share is as strong now as it was before DDM came out. That is assuming that GW actually does out-profit WotC in the minis business, which I'd like to see some actual numbers on. DDM is far more widely known and distributed. I didn't see a bunch of DDM boosters being marked 75% off at Barnes and Noble to get rid of the things, but that's what happened to GW's stuff after it was brought in and collected dust for some months.

If nothing else, Chainmail proved that D&D minis couldn't beat GW at its own game.

 

[Glyfair]

Um, unless I'm misunderstanding someone here, I am in complete agreement. Similar non-random business models have fared unfavorably in comparison to the random business model. I absolutely agree with that statement.

Chris' position pretty much seems to be that Chainmail was a great line that was doomed because of internal politics. While he doesn't outright say it would have been more successful than the random miniature model, he does say it was canceled because of "facing endless roadblocks, territorial disputes, and corporate shenanigans." In effect he's saying it might have been more successful than DDM is now.

 

[smootrk]

I don't dismiss any of the insider views, all being quite insightful, however, I, myself, as an individual (and not as a market demographic) would very much be interesting in a bag of gnolls, orcs, goblins, drow, etc. (in plastic, all with the same detail/paint/etc) and if such a product was produced, you can all be assured that I would purchase each basic bag. Alas, these companies are not interested in each gamer/dm purchasing one of each of these products... they want repeated sales of the same packaging, in multiples, cases and the like.

Heck, make these from existing molds, with different paint schemes, to stretch your buck for setup costs, and to differentiate from your random mini dispersement. I understand that the runs would be much smaller, and probably of more limited distribution, but have you considered trying a bag of goblins through Target or Walmart or the like. Somehow, I bet even non-gamer 6 year olds would like these better than some of the little army men sets I see, or similar offerings I see in those outlets. Somehow, $6 Star Wars figures still seem to be selling after twenty something years... and I would bet that the D&D brand is nearly as well known as the SW brand.

 

[ajanders]

Another line of thought...

Does anyone have statistics or anecdotes about sales for Paizo's Compleat Encounters products?
That concept seems like a possible way to sell D&D mini's in non-random fashion, but with less record keeping.

Taken to its ultimate level, perhaps, would anyone be interested in purchasing all the miniatures necessary to run, say, Forge of Fury in a package?
WOTC could release a fixed set of minis like that for every adventure they created: given the number of adventures they've released, it hardly seems like much of an administrative burden.
Or they could provide a set of strange magical monsters for their Arcane Corridors mapset.

Obviously, WOTC could make arrangements with other companies as well, but keeping it all in the family makes the negotiations simpler.

Does anyone have any thoughts about the workablility of this?

 

[BryonD]

According to who, your crystal ball? Look, I'll freely admit that the current model seems to be doing OK for Wizards, but you have no way of knowing whether WotC could be even more successful with a different business model. WotC embraced the collectible mentality for minis because the company was built on collectibility.

What? With the completely baseless crystal ball statements you have made you're turning around and doubting my fairly obvious statement???? I think you are greatly confusing your personal preference for market reality.

 

[Glyfair]

Does anyone have statistics or anecdotes about sales for Paizo's Compleat Encounters products?

Anecdotal only. I have two FLGS in my area, as smaller one (book store/comic book store/gaming store/new age store) and a larger one. I asked the smaller one to get me a one or two and they ordered an additional one. They sold one before I got there, the others sat there for lengths of time (the ninja one is still there) but gradually sold. However, they only have a small non-GW miniatures section.

The larger store, as far as I know, have never ordered them. If they did, they sold them and didn't order them again. They have a large GW section, but also a large Reaper selection and small section with other companies miniatures.

 

[crazy_cat]

Taken to its ultimate level, perhaps, would anyone be interested in purchasing all the miniatures necessary to run, say, Forge of Fury in a package?
....
WOTC could release a fixed set of minis like that for every adventure they created: given the number of adventures they've released, it hardly seems like much of an administrative burden.
...
Does anyone have any thoughts about the workablility of this?

I personally like the idea and I'd buy them if they existed (assuming the modules and minis were of reasonable quality) - but I don't think it would be financially viable or sustainable in any way.

Didn't WOTC stop making adventures for a good while and leave it to 3rd parties as they weren't sufficiently profitable?

Have modules suddenly become profitable? Or are WOTC producing them becasue they must, as without them its hard to grow the brand if new players have no adventures to actually play once they've picked up a PHB, DMG and MM?

Being realistic, I can't see them taking a profitable thing (DDM) and combining it with a possibly profitable, or possibly loss leading necessity for the D&D brand (modules) unless some very detailed market research tells them its what is ofificially known as a very good (ie profitable) idea.

Telling people that to properly run the newest module they need to a) buy the module and then b) buy the relevant minis as a set from WOTC is IMHO a guaranteed way to both upset the old guard by forcing the link to WOTC branded minis, and to alienate the new player by raising the entry level costs.

 

[BryonD]

Chris' position pretty much seems to be that Chainmail was a great line that was doomed because of internal politics. While he doesn't outright say it would have been more successful than the random miniature model, he does say it was canceled because of "facing endless roadblocks, territorial disputes, and corporate shenanigans." In effect he's saying it might have been more successful than DDM is now.

I'm curious what would have been significantly different.

The actual product that hit the shelves died because of what that product was.

To claim that an undefined product would have been "more successful" than a clear success seems more than a stretch. And I understand that these are your words and not Chris'.
But seriously, what objective statements can be made to support this claim?

Chainmail didn't fail because of internal politics. Chainmail failed because Chainmail was unpopular. The approach failed in the marketplace. Now, clearly the point is that SOME other approach was intended and politics caused that other approach to die and be replaced with an inferior one. Fine, that certainly sounds highly plausible. But that doesn't change the market reality around the actual product. And none of that establishes that some other never released "Chaimail Design Alpha" product would have been the biggest hit ever or an even worse flop.

(And yes, I understand that some people liked Chainmail. Just as some people DON'T like DDM. Exceptions, no matter how deeply commited, don't define the market. Not ENOUGH people liked it to keep the blisters from collecting dust in clearance bins at the game stores around me.)

Bottom line: Nonrandom was tried and it failed. The best you can do is say that those results should be ignored. That in no way is evidence that it would work better than DDM. And though there may be very good reason to discount the results of Chainmail in an assessement, to completely ignore it as meaningless seems an intentional injection of bias.

 

[Agent Oracle]

Actually, the thought of Supplementing the Minis game with pre-built Army-packs is nothing new. If I'm not mistaken, Wizkids did something similar with 200 point pre-built faction packs... let me see if i can find one...

Found them!

Mage Knight Constructed Army Sets

Mage Knight Atlantis Guild Army by WizKids

Ship date: February 2001
SRP per box: $12.95
Minis per box: 8 for army plus One random Rare figure.
Item Number: WIZ300
Features: A pre-built 200 point Atlantis Guild Army plus one random rare figure from the Rebellion set.

Mage Knight Black Powder Guild Army by WizKids

Ship date: February 2001
SRP per box: $12.95
Minis per box: 8 for army plus One random Rare figure.
Item Number: WIZ301
Features: A pre-built 200 point Black Powder Guild Army plus one random rare figure from the Rebellion set.

Mage Knight Necropolis Sect Army by WizKids

Ship date: March 2001
SRP per box: $12.95
Minis per box: 8 for army plus One random Rare figure.
Item Number: WIZ302
Features: A pre-built 200 point Necropolis Sect Army plus one random rare figure from the Rebellion set.

Mage Knight Elemental League Army by WizKids
Ship date: March 2001
SRP per box: $12.95
Minis per box: 8 for army plus One random Rare figure.
Item Number: WIZ303
Features: A pre-built 200 point Elemental League Army plus one random rare figure from the Rebellion set.

These were released shortly after the original set, Rebellion, and have not really gone up in price... Perhaps WotC could make four 200 point pre-built armies centered around a theme?