D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

[FrogReaver]

Apparently yes. Adds around 5-7% more chance to bounce.

Seeing that in action. The sorcerer player forgot the 1s treated as 2s effect.

It should be slightly better for the bounce than adding an additional dice by upscaling the spell, right?

 

[Zardnaar]

It should be slightly better for the bounce than adding an additional dice by upscaling the spell, right?

Not sure.

This started when I saw a reddit post comparing CO to chain lightning. I thought it was a joke.

@Kinematics is doing the math.i can report on what I'm seeing at the table my personal testing.

For sorcerers it seems better imho. Everyone else it's situational on gaining advantage. Magic Adept wizard though could be worth it for some classes imho.

Situations making CO great are a lot more common than Fireball imho.

 

[Kinematics]

So what are the details? Here's where I am at:

• Sorcerer
  • Innate Sorcery (level 1) to give yourself advantage on all attack rolls for spells for 1 min, 2+/day (or +1 DC)
  • Metamagic (level 2) - Empowered for rerolling damage, and Seeking for misses
• Draconic sub (level 3), maybe lightning, +HP, +AC, Chromatic Orb for free
• Fey-Touched feat (level 4) for +1 CHA and Hex
• Draconic (level 6) gives +CHA damage to lightning spells, resist lightning
• +2 CHA (level 8), for 20 CHA

Assuming base accuracy of 70%, and sufficient targets to get max bounces at each spell level.
Innate Sorcery active.

Lvl Cast	Base Dmg	w/Empower	% Gain	w/Seeking	% Gain	w/Elven Acc	% Gain	w/Emp+Seek	% Gain
1	17.86	26.58	149%	19.88	111%	20.10	113%	29.29	164%
2	33.09	49.89	151%	38.10	115%	38.22	115%	57.48	174%
3	59.51	84.49	142%	71.67	120%	71.15	120%	102.1	172%
4	98.92	115.7	117%	125.2	127%	122.9	124%	147.0	149%
5	146.0	160.2	110%	193.9	133%	188.1	129%	212.6	146%
6	193.5	205.3	106%	268.1	139%	257.5	133%	283.5	147%

Empowered Spell is the best option for spell levels 1-3. Seeking Spell (or Elven Accuracy) is best for spell levels 4-6. The combination of the two is obviously stronger than each on their own, but I still wouldn't use the combo before spell level 4. The gain over Empowered Spell doesn't feel worth that metamagic slot.

Personally, I'd start off with Empowered Spell and Twin Spell, rather than Seeking Spell, because of Twin Spell's use for non-blaster utility. Pick up Seeking Spell at level 10. However if you don't care about utility at all, and you also expect it to be common to not have Innate Sorcery available, then Seeking Spell is a lot more useful.

I wouldn't bother with getting Hex for a CO build. It's +1d6 against a single target (so irrelevant for all bounce targets), and uses concentration. Plus it's a bonus action to cast, so if you don't have it pre-cast, you have to wait a turn so that you can get Innate Sorcery active first. And even if you did have it pre-cast, it might very well need that bonus action to move it onto a target creature, so once again you'd have to wait til the turn after you activated Innate Sorcery. It might be more useful for a Scorching Ray build.

For Fireball, assuming the same number of targets hit as Chromatic Orb, +3 Dex save, and optional use of Empowered Spell:

Level Cast	Fireball	w/Empower	% Gain
1	0.00	0.00	0%
2	0.00	0.00	0%
3	95.20	115.60	121%
4	133.88	159.38	119%
5	178.50	216.75	121%
6	229.08	273.70	119%

 

[evilbob]

I've calculated Empowered for fireball.

Using +5 Charisma and before accuracy is considered.

The 8d6 version is + 4.1 Damage
The 9d6 version is +4.8 Damage
The 10d6 version is +5.5 Damage
The 11d6 version is +6.1 Damage

If we add these numbers to the fireball damage from evilbob's post above then we get

10d6 + 5.5 + 5 (assuming draconic sorcerer).
75% chance to fail save. 25% chance to pass.
87.75% of the damage after adjusted for saves
5 targets
=45.5 * 5 * .8775 = 199.6

Quick note no methodology -
I used binomial distribution to know my probability for rolling 3 or lower X number of times. I then computed my average damage increase from a reroll of 3 or lower which was +1.5 per dice rerolled. I capped the dice rerolled at 5 for charisma mod. I then multiplied out, summed up and averaged out to get the average damage bonus of the reroll.

Once set up it was relatively easy to adjust this for other scenarios like d8 dice or lower charisma mod or different numbers of dice.

Thanks for the discussion!

A dragonic sorc who chooses fire adds +5 to the fireball damage - great catch! And the +5.5 is coming from Empowered spell as well, you're saying? And with the roughly estimated "average" saves, that comes out to right at 200 avg damage - all excellent points. That DOES make it far more comparable.

I do think it's fair to add Hex to CO, since you hit with attack rolls each time, although you're right that it isn't quite apples to apples because you're also spending a 1st level slot. (Hex doesn't affect all the targets!) Also, CO doesn't gain nearly as much from Empower, as you can't boost a single die and then use that boost x5, like Fireball can.

The way I calculated the "to hit" was to say +9 on an attack roll vs. 17 AC, which means you need 7 or lower to miss - but you're right, I was using "7 or higher" and not "8 or higher." The odds of rolling 2d20 and getting an 8 or higher is 87.75%.
(I went back and changed my original math to include Elven Accuracy.)
The odds of rolling 3 d20 and getting 8 or higher is 95.7%. I'm still not sure if you can use Seeking more than once. If you can use it any number of times, then it's a 98.5% chance to hit.

The max average damage for Chromatic Orb is more like 197, and it's really lower than that, which is below fireball level with the same style enhancements.

You can boost +spell attack as much as possible for it to come out ahead. (Even a +2 to attack gets us to 98.4% chance to hit with just advantage, and 99.6% with Seeking!) That's still easier than boosting DCs, BUT ultimately this puts both spells much more in line with each other. Even with a near 100% chance, CO is still in the 205 range, while Fireball is closer to 220 before saves. (I'm guessing Cone of Cold actually benefits slightly less with Empowered? Maybe about +9 total - which again makes it almost exactly identical to Fireball.)

I still want to game out Chain Lightning as well, but this helps a ton!

(Edits!)

 

[evilbob]

I wouldn't bother with getting Hex for a CO build. It's +1d6 against a single target (so irrelevant for all bounce targets)

GAH

You're totally right - I completely messed that up.

 

[Kinematics]

(I'm guessing Cone of Cold actually benefits slightly less with Empowered? Maybe about +9 total - which again makes it almost exactly identical to Fireball.)

Fireball should, on average, get an average of +1.5 per rerolled die that starts in the lower half of the die range (so 1-3 on a d6). Cone of Cold should average +2 per rerolled die since it's using d8s.

The number of dice that you can expect to reroll should be 1/2 of the entire dice pool for the spell (up to Cha mod max). For Fireball, that's 5 of the 10 dice, and for Cone of Cold that's 4 of the 8 dice.

5 * 1.5 = +7.5 damage for Fireball
4 * 2 = +8 damage for Cone of Cold

So the two spells should get almost exactly the same benefit from Empowered Spell. Cone of Cold should get you +1 damage per 2 targets hit.

 

[Zardnaar]

Assuming base accuracy of 70%, and sufficient targets to get max bounces at each spell level.
Innate Sorcery active.

Lvl Cast	Base Dmg	w/Empower	% Gain	w/Seeking	% Gain	w/Elven Acc	% Gain	w/Emp+Seek	% Gain
1	17.86	26.58	149%	19.88	111%	20.10	113%	29.29	164%
2	33.09	49.89	151%	38.10	115%	38.22	115%	57.48	174%
3	59.51	84.49	142%	71.67	120%	71.15	120%	102.1	172%
4	98.92	115.7	117%	125.2	127%	122.9	124%	147.0	149%
5	146.0	160.2	110%	193.9	133%	188.1	129%	212.6	146%
6	193.5	205.3	106%	268.1	139%	257.5	133%	283.5	147%

Empowered Spell is the best option for spell levels 1-3. Seeking Spell (or Elven Accuracy) is best for spell levels 4-6. The combination of the two is obviously stronger than each on their own, but I still wouldn't use the combo before spell level 4. The gain over Empowered Spell doesn't feel worth that metamagic slot.

Personally, I'd start off with Empowered Spell and Twin Spell, rather than Seeking Spell, because of Twin Spell's use for non-blaster utility. Pick up Seeking Spell at level 10. However if you don't care about utility at all, and you also expect it to be common to not have Innate Sorcery available, then Seeking Spell is a lot more useful.

I wouldn't bother with getting Hex for a CO build. It's +1d6 against a single target (so irrelevant for all bounce targets), and uses concentration. Plus it's a bonus action to cast, so if you don't have it pre-cast, you have to wait a turn so that you can get Innate Sorcery active first. And even if you did have it pre-cast, it might very well need that bonus action to move it onto a target creature, so once again you'd have to wait til the turn after you activated Innate Sorcery. It might be more useful for a Scorching Ray build.

For Fireball, assuming the same number of targets hit as Chromatic Orb, +3 Dex save, and optional use of Empowered Spell:

Level Cast	Fireball	w/Empower	% Gain
1	0.00	0.00	0%
2	0.00	0.00	0%
3	95.20	115.60	121%
4	133.88	159.38	119%
5	178.50	216.75	121%
6	229.08	273.70	119%

I would still take hex tbh. Innate Sorcery isn't always available. More importantly it works with Sorcererous Bust and scorching ray.

Stuff you shoukd be doing anyway. Also via feat once a long rest you can hex plus cast another spell.

Low level CO I don't expect them to bounce and opportunity cost of hex is low.

 

[Zardnaar]

Thanks for the discussion!

A dragonic sorc who chooses fire adds +5 to the fireball damage - great catch! And the +5.5 is coming from Empowered spell as well, you're saying? And with the roughly estimated "average" saves, that comes out to right at 200 avg damage - all excellent points. That DOES make it far more comparable.

I do think it's fair to add Hex to CO, since you hit with attack rolls each time, although you're right that it isn't quite apples to apples because you're also spending a 1st level slot. (Hex doesn't affect all the targets! That means the max is more like 186 with crits factored in.) Also, CO doesn't gain nearly as much from Empower, as you can't boost a single die and then use that boost x5, like Fireball can.

The way I calculated the "to hit" was to say +9 on an attack roll vs. 17 AC, which means you need 7 or lower to miss - but you're right, I was using "7 or higher" and not "8 or higher." The odds of rolling 2d20 and getting an 8 or higher is 87.75%. The odds of rolling 3 d20 and getting 8 or higher is 95.7%. It gets a little tricky because you don't need the 95% odds unless you fail the 88% odds, and I'm still not sure if you can use Seeking more than once. If you can use it any number of times, then it's a 95.7% chance to hit. If you can only use it once, then I guess that'd be an average of 89.7%? I am starting to get over my head here.

If that's accurate, then the max average damage for Chromatic Orb is more like 194.7 167, and it's really lower than that, which is well below fireball level with the same style enhancements.

In that case, you'd have to be boosting +spell attack as much as possible for it to come out ahead. (Even a +2 to attack gets us to 93% chance to hit with just advantage, and 98% with Seeking!) That's still easier than boosting DCs, BUT ultimately this puts both spells much more in line with each other. Even with a near 100% chance, CO is still in the 217 186 range, while Fireball is closer to 227 before saves. (I'm guessing Cone of Cold actually benefits slightly less with Empowered? Maybe about +9 total - which again makes it almost exactly identical to Fireball.)

I still want to game out Chain Lightning as well, but this helps a ton!

Fireball often can't hit that many targets is the thing.

CO in effect you get energy substitution and careful spell for free.

It's easier to white room chromatic orb and situationally abuse it. Eg vs Paralyzed critters. 30' bounce range in effect let's ot hit everyone even if spaced out a bit. Other day I saw one hit 5 targets at 4th level with 3 critical (two were guaranteed).

Fireball at best would have got 4. CO can explode drastically FB cant do that at all.

36.5 X4 save for half vs 12d8X3, 6d8, 6d8 no save. Hit chance was 90% with Seeking spell if required

 

[evilbob]

Assuming base accuracy of 70%, and sufficient targets to get max bounces at each spell level.
Innate Sorcery active.

Lvl Cast	Base Dmg	w/Empower	% Gain	w/Seeking	% Gain	w/Elven Acc	% Gain	w/Emp+Seek	% Gain
1	17.86	26.58	149%	19.88	111%	20.10	113%	29.29	164%
2	33.09	49.89	151%	38.10	115%	38.22	115%	57.48	174%
3	59.51	84.49	142%	71.67	120%	71.15	120%	102.1	172%
4	98.92	115.7	117%	125.2	127%	122.9	124%	147.0	149%
5	146.0	160.2	110%	193.9	133%	188.1	129%	212.6	146%
6	193.5	205.3	106%	268.1	139%	257.5	133%	283.5	147%

...

For Fireball, assuming the same number of targets hit as Chromatic Orb, +3 Dex save, and optional use of Empowered Spell:

I redid my math and still got slightly different numbers than you for Fireball, but I trust your numbers. One thing: did you account for the significant chance to crit on CO with Elven Accuracy? It nearly doubles the damage and I think there's a better than 14% chance to crit with each roll.

Regardless, I see your point about Seeking spell, and it is not nearly worth it if you have Elven Accuracy, I agree. Empowered is where it's at for the early levels, and Twinned gives much more utility.

 

[FrogReaver]

The number of dice that you can expect to reroll should be 1/2 of the entire dice pool for the spell (up to Cha mod max). For Fireball, that's 5 of the 10 dice, and for Cone of Cold that's 4 of the 8 dice.

This is not technically true. If you could reroll any number of dice that’s what it would come out to, but since you cannot then it won’t reach that potential max.

Consider the 2 cases where you could reroll any dice and you had 1 roll below 3 and the other where you had 9 rolls below 3. That would average out to 5 rerolls, but since you only have cha mod max rerolls that case averages out to 3 rerolls. So when you sum up the total number of dice rerolled you won’t reach half unless you can reroll all or were in the special case of where both the corresponding high and low cases required less dice to reroll than your max attempts.