I apologize if my use of terminology was incorrect, but that doesn't change point.
Oh, your numbers seemed just fine, you were just describing less 'swing' (variance), not more. A system with a resolution on a curve like Traveler (2d6) or Hero (3d6) gives you the on-average expected results more consistently. It also tails off more slowly.
Now, as tasks get either very likely or very unlikely the 2d6 has a smaller change than d20. But in the sweet spot a small change in modifiers will have a huge effect on did you make your DC.
Exactly. So if you're a just a little better, you still have a noticeable advantage, if your significantly better it's all but assured. But, those returns diminish rapidly. On 3d6, if you need an 11, that's prettymuch 50/50 (the average being 10.5). A mere +3 takes you into 90% territory, but those last 10% require a +4. Systems like that lend themselves to low bonuses because of the diminishing returns on higher bonuses, while linear systems, like d20, lend themselves to high bonuses, because every +1 counts (and, relative to the chance of failure, counts for more as you get really good).
ok so question to you guys....
less skills like 5e or EOTE
or more skills like 3e or more
I'm afraid I have a very strong opinion on that. Fewer skills are generally better. More importantly, a fixed skill list is better than an open-ended one. The way I see it, adding a skill 'creates incompetence.' That is, before you add the skill, everyone's good at what they're good at out of the universe of possibly things to be good at, and bad at the rest. Add a skill, and they're /all/ bad at one more thing, so, relatively less competent, overall. If you split the new skill off from an existing one, you don't technically hurt anyone who didn't have it, but those who did, similarly, become less competent.
Ideally, a game should have few, relatively broad skills, that evenly divide amongst themselves the universe of tasks required of PCs in the genre in question. 'Evenly' of course, might be nuanced and weighted, since some tasks come up more often, and some are higher-impact or more spotlight-grabbing.
But, ultimately, if you hit the right balance between PCs being able to acquire and master skills, and tasks being required of them, it doesn't matter much (mainly a matter of bookkeeping/complexity) of you list is large or small. As long as it doesn't get larger in play.