My worry about the plan is that if the roving party sees through Carad's illusion, or if they hear the sounds of battle, or if the northern party sends word to them, they would attack through the south door. Then our party and the refugees would be trapped. We would have to try to hold the south door close while fighting the north group. Granted, the refugees managed to hold off the original southern group for a while, so it might be possible, but would definitely be a risk.
The roving team would take another 1 minute in the north and 2 minutes to the east of the church. With 3 minutes, I think we can get the refugees to the treeline and into the creek. One minute of fast travel is 400 ft, and the creek is only about 100 ft away, even if considered difficult terrain. So one way is that one member of the party (or Scree) lead the refugees to flee through the south into the river creek now. Then about 2.5 minutes later (i.e. while the roving team is most of the way down the eastern side), our party attacks the northern group through the door. If the roving group hears the battle or they get summoned, it would still take them some time to join the ramming group, hopefully giving us enough time to wipe them out first before the roving group comes into the picture. If they don't realise, then Carad can throw up the smoke illusion, buying us even more time. I'm also considering that the door might come down anytime so we should try to get the refugees out as quickly as possible.
Steve Gorak, Carad is down to 17 from 24 hp. I think Morgan is down by 3 hp? Perhaps she can cast one or two Goodberries and pass it around before she changes. One Goodberry would take care of Carad and Morgan. Another might be useful for although they aren't much help in the middle of the combat (since each takes 1 action to eat), but between combat Jeni won't need to change back first, and waste her shapechanging.