How likely are you to use D&D for your next game?

[payn]

The 5E campaigns I'm involved with as a DM or player have finished or are "on hiatus" for various reasons. No-one is discussing running 5E, whether 2014 or 2024. Obviously that's just people I know, but it does surprise me a bit. 2024 seems to me to largely be a decent upgrade, but it lacks that "We gotta try this cool new thing" factor. Ironically I think WotC's heavy work to make it not be a new edition might have backfired here somewhat.

I think this is heavily biased by folks that have been playing forever. Its often overlooked how many people are getting started right now, or coming back.

Honestly revising my guess that 6E (and yeah formally touted as a "new edition" this time) is more like 5-6 years out, max, rather than closer to 10. It could be as few as 4, depending on how the sales go in 2025 and 2026.

I doubt it. An overhaul so soon would be a nightmare for the VTT. Situation isnt the same as it was 10 years ago either so I dont think the rapid fire edition churn of yesteryear is in order or should be expected.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

An overhaul so soon would be a nightmare for the VTT.

You're 100% assuming the 3D VTT will be a major financial success story, not a terrible loss that Hasbro get mad about.

Given they've been developing it for what, at least 2 years now, with, according to Cynthia Williams, 250 people working on it, they've probably spent at least $50m already ($100k costs per person working on it is pretty conservative, as discussed at length in other threads).

There's no sign its near done, or going to be out this year even, so that may well rise to $75m or even more.

For that to make its money back, let alone make a profit, in the couple of years after release, it'll need to both be popular and to have some pretty aggressive microtransactions and/or subscription fees. Unfortunately both factors push against each other.

And Hasbro are an impatient company who are very obsessed with shareholder perceptions, and further, the 3D VTT was Williams' "baby" in the corporate sense, and she's already left WotC/Hasbro (CEO of Funko now, good luck with that!). They are unlikely to want to even be perceived as chucking good money after bad. They're not likely to want to keep working on the 3D VTT and "eventually" become successful/profitable like some companies would.

So I would predict that if the 3D VTT is anything less than an instant hit, Hasbro will shut it down within 2 years of it launching. I don't think "doing okay" will be good enough for them either, given that they'll need a significant number of developers on it to keep making new material to sell as MTX, adapting new campaigns to it, improving features, staying current, and so on.

And so far, WotC haven't given us any clear reason why we'd use the 3D VTT, and further, player habits, in the absence of a pandemic, have moved back away from VTTs to in-person meetings much more than they were when this project was started.

So I think the safe bet is that the 3D VTT doesn't make it to 2030, and that's being generous.

I think this is heavily biased by folks that have been playing forever. Its often overlooked how many people are getting started right now, or coming back.

I'm sure this is true, but historically one would expect this to bias it in favour of "I'm going to keep playing 5E in some form". Not for the majority of answers to be "Not 5E" (in fact over 40% are "not even a D&D-like" - I'm sure that wouldn't have been true a few years ago).

 

[payn]

I'm sure this is true, but historically one would expect this to bias it in favour of "I'm going to keep playing 5E in some form".

Im guessing thats the tilt off EN World.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Im guessing thats the tilt off EN World.

Why wouldn't it be the tilt here as well though? ENworld historically has been more keen on 5E than, like, communities dedicated to 5E lol.

 

[CleverNickName]

Im guessing thats the tilt off EN World.

More specifically, it's the tilt of people on ENWorld, who are active in the "TTRPGs General" forum, who saw this poll, and had a strong enough opinion to respond.

That's probably a small percentage of EN World members, who are already a small percentage of the online gaming community.

 

[Thomas Shey]

That is the challenge and why a bit of time/money is worth spending on marketing. Because if you can’t summarize it with a few sentences to appeal to folks then it is far less likely to sell.

No doubt. But sometimes a simple summary just won't work, and that's all there is to it.

For instance Micah Sweet suggested Level Up is a crunchier version of 5e. Not sure if it is or not, but you can certainly market that… if that’s what people actually want.

Well, the question of whether what you're providing is something someone wants is a whole different issue.

 

[aramis erak]

Fascinating survey that seems to seriously buck the trend that folks on this site mainly play 5e.

Struggling to get my head round that as the topic of conversations seems to suggest otherwise.

poll participation is not the same as discussion participation. Often polls have way more voters than the thread they're in has participants. Not just here, either.

 

[TheSword]

poll participation is not the same as discussion participation. Often polls have way more voters than the thread they're in has participants. Not just here, either.

I was surprised because most polls don’t turn out that way either.

 

[John Dallman]

And so far, WotC haven't given us any clear reason why we'd use the 3D VTT . . .

I suspect they believe it's so cool, combining the TTRPG with a video game, that everyone will crowd aboard. Groupthink can lead a company to very strange places.

(in fact over 40% are "not even a D&D-like" - I'm sure that wouldn't have been true a few years ago).

I haven't the slightest intention of using any form of D&D for the next campaign I run. I don't know what I will use, and I don't know what the campaign will be; I intend to carry on running my two current campaigns for years.

 

[Gus L]

As per the past 10 years or so my next game will use 1974 OD&D without Greyhawk and with a set of house rules. I don't know that this is even D&D anymore though. Certainly won't be using the rest of the game either (monsters/treasure etc..) just the mechanical framework.