For what it's worth, we don't actually know how much anyone got paid by ticket sales - the splits are quite variable (often the studio gets a big percentage opening weekend but it drops off each week - and the 'normal' rate vary by country and all of this is not disclosed.
Outsiders looking in use 2x as a ballpark because it holds up to observation, not because we know what the actual accounting looks like.
Anywho: BO take is less than announced budget: definitely lost money.
BO is 1x to 2x budget: probably lost money (which is where his film is falling, although as other noted that isn't the same as being a business failure)
BO 2x to 2.5x: probably made money though depending on details it could be close.
BO is 2.5x or better: made money unless your contracts team is really bad at their jobs.
Exact numbers no but it's around 40% foreign, 25% chiba and 60% averages apparently.
Sliding scale studio gets more early in release, theatre gets more longer the movie runs.
D&D didn't get close to 300 million BO which is where it would be iffy that the vack end would close the gap.
One can also use other movies to estimate the marketing budget. A cheap campaign woukd be 30-40million for a 150 million movie.
375+ million was the figure thrown around by a Hollywood insider as an estimated break even point and that's assuming a modest advertising budget ,(read cheap).
There's an 80 million hole minimum the back end has to fill (50 million production, 30 million advertising). And that's assuming they went with the cheapest campaign possible anything less is purely idiotic for a 160 million movie.
We don't know who's paying what or getting what but some gonna eat that loss.
Even if HAT makes Mario money on VoD its still a dunking.
Hasbro might swuekbout a win but if so is at Paramounts expense.
No one knows the exact details but don't hold your breath expecting a sequel anytime soon woukd be my advice.
More pessimistic take "Sequel lol you're dreaming".
If it makes one fee vetter it seems there's been a recent string of flops/under achieving bigger budget movies last few weeks starting with FastX.