I agree.Which means that my best guess is that we'll see something more like the GSL - a license that allows for the creation of certain things (probably adventures and not much else), and allows products to be marked with a designated logo, and which doesn't require any pre-approval but does have some enforcement clauses so WotC can have problematic items pulled if and when they spot a problem.
Hopefully disagree. The GSL had a lot of restrictions that could be lost without significantly affecting it, and which would make it more attractive to publishers. The sunset provision was the main one that I remember.I further expect such a license to be about as popular as the GSL was - that is, some people will use it, but not many.
I really can't see WotC going with any license that requires pre-approval.
The problem with doing so is that then they need to employ someone to do the approving. But there's no money in it, so either WotC are going to take the financial hit themselves (yeah, right), or the third-party company needs to pay a fee/royalties for the right to do so. But either the fee would need to be so low that, effectively, WotC are paying for it, or it would be so high as to effectively kill third-party publishing.
from your lips to god's ear...However, neither can I see WotC going with the OGL again. Once bitten, twice shy, and all that.
that wouldn't be too bad....Which means that my best guess is that we'll see something more like the GSL - a license that allows for the creation of certain things (probably adventures and not much else), and allows products to be marked with a designated logo, and which doesn't require any pre-approval but does have some enforcement clauses so WotC can have problematic items pulled if and when they spot a problem.
That is a problem, but could be fixed with profit shareing... a small fee +10% of the profit of the book...
What profit?
Seriously, most third-party products will be lucky to sell a few hundred copies, with the best sellers hitting a few thousand, and that at pretty small margins. So 10% of the profit for those is probably a cheque so small it isn't even worth WotC taking the time to cash it.
It might be different if Paizo or Monte Cook decided to start putting out support products for 5e, but I can't see that happening. Indeed, I can't see that happening even if WotC paid them to do so - they're now busy doing their own things and don't really have the time for anything else.
if what you say is true then they should skip the License in total...
nobody cares...
This is incorrect. This is one of those issues that generates attention way out of proportion to its impact on most people. So if WotC were to turn around and say, "sorry guys, no license" they'd be hit by yet another round of criticism. (Although, incidentally, they'll probably get hit by exactly the same if they announce the 'wrong' license - meaning pretty much anything short of using the OGL.)
But when it comes down to it, it directly affects a fairly small group of people and companies (specifically, those who want to produce third-party support products and who don't want to do so using the current arrangements), and has a secondary effect on another slightly larger group (being the fans of those publishers, who would buy those products).
But the number of people who care is considerably larger than the number of people who would actually be affected. Indeed, I for one am in that larger group, because I believe a thriving third-party scene would be good for the game (and community) and using the widest possible license is most likely to achieve that.
YMMV, of course.
Keep in mind, 3rd Party Publishers are just one of the potential audiences for a licence. The OGL and GSL were also the licence used to cover fan content. Open Gaming doesn't just mean PDFs but, say, fans of the system making up classes and races and spells on the message board of a fan site.From a business standpoint, this is probably right. But...
This is incorrect. This is one of those issues that generates attention way out of proportion to its impact on most people. So if WotC were to turn around and say, "sorry guys, no license" they'd be hit by yet another round of criticism. (Although, incidentally, they'll probably get hit by exactly the same if they announce the 'wrong' license - meaning pretty much anything short of using the OGL.)
But when it comes down to it, it directly affects a fairly small group of people and companies (specifically, those who want to produce third-party support products and who don't want to do so using the current arrangements), and has a secondary effect on another slightly larger group (being the fans of those publishers, who would buy those products).
But the number of people who care is considerably larger than the number of people who would actually be affected. Indeed, I for one am in that larger group, because I believe a thriving third-party scene would be good for the game (and community) and using the widest possible license is most likely to achieve that.
YMMV, of course.