Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Retreater

Legend
From what I heard it is going way over budget with reshoots (which is one of the reasons Solo lost money). It will likely tank in foreign markets (i.e. China) as the previous ones did, because they have no nostalgia for the franchise.

But it's a mainline Star Wars movie. It will probably make $1B worldwide. But merchandise won't move - as has been the trend. In general, kids don't care about the series. Many grognards are salty about The Last Jedi. I don't think it's in a particularly good place to bring in casual audiences - the third part in a series with diminishing returns (contrasted with the expansion of the MCU fanbase).

So it will be a good reason for Disney to put the Star Wars film series on ice for a few years.
 

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Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
That rumors on YouTube and they used photos of booking on one of the online sites.

Because, as we know, photos couldn't possibly be doctored. Nobody, in this day and age of major computer graphics based movies... could manage to doctor a picture like that with, say... Microsoft Paint!

If you live in a big city check you local online booking.

I live in a big, pretty geek-laden city. I would expect most of the opening-night seats to be sold out. There's a big culture here of seeing movies as quickly as possible. So, I don't see as it would prove anything to see local theaters sold out already.

As to losing half I don't think it will happen but TLJ was down a 1/3rd over TFA

For pretty much every movie trilogy out there, the second movie doesn't perform as well as the first - this holds for Star Wars, and many other franchises. Sometimes, the third picks up, some times it doesn't. I don't see there's much prediction to be made from that.

and Solo was down 60% vs Rogue One.

I don't think anyone really saw those as a series of movies - what with there being no connection of plot. So, I don't think there's much predictive value there, either.

Losing half is actually plausible.

Plausibility is subjective. Believe what you like.

Toy sales are down,the theme park seems to be underperforming and they canceled the TV show.

Toy sales are down for everyone, not just Star Wars. Heck, there's a big story in the forums about how Hasbro gaming sales were down, with exceptions for Magic and D&D. Also, there may be a bit of a disagreement between Hasbro (who makes the toys) and Disney, such that Hasbro is likely shorting Disney on that, doing the bare minimum that meets their agreements. So, with the confounding factors, I don't think toy sales are predictive of movie gross.

And, of course they cancelled a TV show. Production of these things isn't a pipeline - it is a funnel. You start with more than you are actually apt to make, and lose some along the way. Again, not necessarily predictive of movie ticket sales - that's just the TV business.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Because, as we know, photos couldn't possibly be doctored. Nobody, in this day and age of major computer graphics based movies... could manage to doctor a picture like that with, say... Microsoft Paint!



I live in a big, pretty geek-laden city. I would expect most of the opening-night seats to be sold out. There's a big culture here of seeing movies as quickly as possible. So, I don't see as it would prove anything to see local theaters sold out already.



For pretty much every movie trilogy out there, the second movie doesn't perform as well as the first - this holds for Star Wars, and many other franchises. Sometimes, the third picks up, some times it doesn't. I don't see there's much prediction to be made from that.



I don't think anyone really saw those as a series of movies - what with there being no connection of plot. So, I don't think there's much predictive value there, either.



Plausibility is subjective. Believe what you like.



Toy sales are down for everyone, not just Star Wars. Heck, there's a big story in the forums about how Hasbro gaming sales were down, with exceptions for Magic and D&D. Also, there may be a bit of a disagreement between Hasbro (who makes the toys) and Disney, such that Hasbro is likely shorting Disney on that, doing the bare minimum that meets their agreements. So, with the confounding factors, I don't think toy sales are predictive of movie gross.

And, of course they cancelled a TV show. Production of these things isn't a pipeline - it is a funnel. You start with more than you are actually apt to make, and lose some along the way. Again, not necessarily predictive of movie ticket sales - that's just the TV business.

Basically agree, but yes I do check sources sometimes and pay more attention to something like Forbes over Twitter or whatever.
Some if the stuff in the trailer was also applied several months ago on Reddit so you can also look at that.

One rumor was 75% of the movie has been reshoot a'la Solo. That's BS but there's been a lot of reshoots in more reputable sources.

Guess a number if you like, that's the point of the thread. Well know roughly by the second week where the movie will go so early January (4th or 5th) give or take.

Trilogies often have diminishing returns so sub TLJ by itself isn't that startling.

Throw out a number it's not a bag gotcha.

Whoever gets the closest can pick a type of beer for me to drink and I'll drink it on your behalf
 
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Zardnaar

Legend
Four films. 4.7 billion dollars in global box office.

I think his point is it was must see.

IDK how you lose money on a Star Wars film happens but it did and that was the last one. Said film wasn't even that bad.

3 billion of that 4.7 also comes from the 1st two movies, that's almost a 50% decline (3 vs 1.7).

That's why I said 50% decline is plausible, we're more or less there already. A similar decline from TFA to TLJ is a 600 million movie as a % around 900.
 
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Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
I met an old lady at a bus stop who said she wasn’t going to see Star Wars. So it it will fail, clearly. It totally won’t make a billion dollars.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
I met an old lady at a bus stop who said she wasn’t going to see Star Wars. So it it will fail, clearly. It totally won’t make a billion dollars.

Personal anecdotes don't matter to much one way or another at this point. Self reinforcing bubbles etc. It's why I picked a stupidly high number and low.

Do you have a number or a good sir?
 




GreyLord

Legend
I'd say it's FAR too early to actually make an accurate prediction.

If we go by marketing, Disney has an uphill battle at this point. There's been a LOT of negativity towards Disney and they way it's taken SW to the point that most people who have any connections to the Geek stuff online have at least heard it if not more. However, it is very possible this is only a minority representation, and that a majority of those who would see the movie haven't heard a thing (as they don't even look at the Geek stuff online or elsewhere). One may have no idea what they are thinking (whether it is positive or negative).

That said, I disagree that it's just marketing (as in official marketing) that determines sales with franchises or sequels to movies. There's how people feel about the franchise to how the older movie (or movies) have aged in favor with people. There's a whole lot of various factors which is why doing surveys and other impact studies on trailers and how people react are important to predictions on how a film will or will not do.

I've heard a lot of stuff about the Star Wars franchise over the past year both good and bad. Sometimes those who are loudest are not the majority nor represent the majority. Sometimes they do. Sometimes you get a TMNT sequel, other times you get Avengers: Endgame. I think this one's pretty hard to predict how it will do at this point, though I know how many are HOPING it will do (both good sides and bad).

Long term edit 4 weeks later: I'm narrowing the US domestic prediction to probably somewhere between 500M - 800 M USD. World wide grosses are more difficult but China who is normally a major player in many movie success will basically be a non-factor for this one IMO. I don't think it's going to do well in China which will leave it up to Europe to make up the difference if it is going to be able to hit over a Billion. There are chances I think that it may not even hit that, though if it does I'll say it could get to the 1.1 B mark USD...but I'm going to go a little safer and place the movie at around a 600M - 950 M at this point.

Luckily, though one can try to make an educated guess, guesses on this stuff is like gambling...often your prediction is wrong no matter how well you cage it (and 300 M is a pretty big cage).
 
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