I'm aware pretty much all card games are going through the roof in the pandemic. My point is precisely that if this sells well, that's likely the major factor. As for the "incidental randos make us more money than whales", I'd need to see a cite before believing that, as it runs pretty hard against the history of TCGs and similar products (which started out with that being true, but then that changed).
That's not "low-end" for a conversion rate. That's extremely high. We're more likely to be looking at sub-1% figures, and breaking 1% would be good. Breaking 10% would be absolutely bananas. I can't take you very seriously when you think a 10% conversion rate is "at the low end". Bloody hell mate. And 5% for the novel readers lol? Come off it. You're not going to get 1%. Likewise the videogame players.
It absolutely is reflective of it when it comes to people under 40 and thinking otherwise is being ridiculous.
It might not be a 1:1 correlation, but there's no such thing as a trend among 20 or 30-somethings IRL which isn't also a trend on the internet. It just doesn't happen. 50 or 60-somethings? Maybe. But that's a different question. And the FR isn't a setting people in that age group are excited about, generally speaking. They don't hate it or anything - it's hard to outright hate the FR - but it's not something people are keen on, and that's the fault of WotC to a significant extent. But it's also in part because the FR is a 1980s setting which has never been conceptually or thematically updated, despite multiple ludicrous overhauls.
Yeah it's their most popular SPECIFIC setting. The one that they sell. Their most popular setting in 5E, though, as they've said, is HOMEBREW not the FR. But they can't sell or merchandise homebrew. There's no question the FR has moved the most product over the last three decade, albeit for complex reasons. It used to be a setting I liked a lot, but I haven't seen any material with any real verve for it for a long time.