will 4.0 succeed?

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I really don't get this 'Hasbro wants money, they will make Wizards put out 5E sooner for more moneies.' argument. At all.

Hasbro, of all companies? How long has Parker Brothers been putting out the same Monopoly board? (1935 according to Wikipedia, I'm to lazy to do any real research) I'd think they understand the value of an 'Evergreen' product and if anything discourage a new edition.

The point is not entirely invalid. Monopoly is an evergreen. It probably has a constant rate of sales that is in an acceptable region. You don't really need to support a Monopoly Website and create Monopoly Sourcebooks to maintain sales for it.

If 4E is a great success, but sales eventually decline (for the core books or supplements), Hasbro will probably force a 5E, since they know from 3E and 4E that new editions sell well.
If 4E is not a big success, and sales start lower then expected and decline further, Hasbro will probably not go for a 5E, since the implication is that new editions don't necessarily sell well. If it's still a kind of "Evergreen" (continually selling books at a low but steady rate), they might just close R&D and continue selling the books...
If 4E is a great success, and sales never decline significantly, little will prompt a 5E, except maybe the designers who think they can improve on it...

 

[Aus_Snow]

I believe preorders for the 3 Core books is now ranked #22 on the Amazon.com bestseller list, and at one point was #20. Currently, it is above books such as The Secret and the Southbeach Diet.

<snip>

According to TitleZ.com, 3.5 Players Handbook had a best ranking of 350. I do not know how accurate that data is though, since I think their data only goes back to Nov. 2004.

Well, gee. Even if those data are accurate, how established and popular was Amazon in 1999 (or was it early 2000?. . . whichever), compared to this year? Yeah, exactly.

And how much more gaming product is being sold online in general (and largely at Amazon), as opposed to at what FLGSs still remain, compared to the state of things not so many years ago . . and so on.

So, not a particularly relevant set of figures, in reality.

This is the month before the new edition comes out. Of course sales are going to be at least reasonably good at that stage. It's the new shiny, so that's a given. It wouldn't even matter what was in the books; the same rule would apply.

It remains to be seen how the system and associated merchandise are actually received, in the bigger picture.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Well, gee. Even if those data are accurate, how established and popular was Amazon in 1999 (or was it early 2000?. . . whichever), compared to this year? Yeah, exactly.

Well, since Amazon is a lot more popular today then 1999 to 2000, this means a higher ranking probably means even more customers?

But I agree, it's of little use. Maybe we can use this as a benchmark for the next edition.

 

[Jürgen Hubert]

As someone who still remembers the online discussions in the months before the release of 3E, my personal guess is that 4E will do about as well as 3E.

After all, the debates are very, very similar. Just replace all references to "MMORPGs" to references to "CCGs", and you will feel like you have never left the year 1999...

 

[Aus_Snow]

Well, since Amazon is a lot more popular today then 1999 to 2000, this means a higher ranking probably means even more customers?

But I agree, it's of little use. Maybe we can use this as a benchmark for the next edition.

Definitely, and why not, respectively.

RPGs being a niche hobby, and Amazon having broadened a great deal in its sales, marketing and product range, I guess it just isn't that surprising that RPGs (and yes, I seem to remember that this applies to many if not all of them) sell better at Amazon now than nearly 9 years ago, which time itself was only a few years after the birth of the 'web'.

FLGSs, if all the accounts throughout the years are to be believed, from those inside and outside the industry, have certainly been on the decline, critically. Internet shopping on the other hand is now a household normality across much of the first world. Online gaming stores seem to have been opening up left and right too, over the last, oh say, 8-9 years. But Amazon's the biggie, with their cheap shipping (free past a point) for Americans, cutthroat prices, and - bizarrely - reasonably reliable service, as far as I'm aware.

 

[Minicol]

I believe preorders for the 3 Core books is now ranked #22 on the Amazon.com bestseller list, and at one point was #20. Currently, it is above books such as The Secret and the Southbeach Diet.

Here is the April Chart (lower is better):

And mind you, this is for a set of books that cost $63, and I believe based on the data I read elsewhere that this means it's about 250 book sets per day just through Amazon (about half a million dollars in sales per month, just at Amazon).

I'd say those are good sales.

According to TitleZ.com, 3.5 Players Handbook had a best ranking of 350. I do not know how accurate that data is though, since I think their data only goes back to Nov. 2004.

These are good sales, but how long will they last ?

Of course it sells well, this is one the first month, and all the blind faith converts have all ordered.

 

[Lifesupport]

I also think that Amazon has scavanged much of the International market as well. It would also make sense that sales will dip after the post june rush... I guess that is why they have a stream of products in the pipeline!

Australian Game Shop Vs Amazon

 

[escaflowne777]

It will succeed, if only because WOtC will MAKE SURE it succeeds. They'll do whatever it takes.

 

[Logos7]

yeah because we all know that somehow wizards can make a profit (or even break even ) by purchasing all their own books (to make it happen)

No, it going to do well because people are looking forward to DnD4 kthxbby

 

[Clavis]

I certainly hope it succeeds. And this is coming from someone who is currently playing C&C, dislikes what I've seen so far of 4th Edition, and has no intention of ever playing 4th Edition. I hope 4th Edition succeeds because D&D is synonymous with tabletop RPGs in the mind of the public. To the average person, playing a TRPG is "playing D&D". If the new D&D fails, it means the hobby can no longer attract new players, which is good for none of us. It's D&D that introduces most people to role-playing. Most other RPGs depend upon the population of people who try D&D, and decide they want something else out of a game. Without a viable D&D, the future of the whole industry is in trouble. Even if you are a die-hard grognard, you should want 4th Edition to succeed, because it will stimulate curiosity about the older versions of the game. So while I don't personally like how WOTC designs games, I wish them great success.