will 4.0 succeed?

[Dannyalcatraz]

Marketing missteps (perhaps the most similar, in WotC's favor there isn't a large competitor ready to pounce on their missteps)

With New Coke, the main competitors were Pepsi and, most relevant, the original "Classic" Coke.

While there is no game that could be considered the "Pepsi" to WotC's 4Ed "New Coke," 3.X in all of its variants (including 3rd party versions like AU/AE, Pathfinder, and Midnight) are definitely analogous to "Classic Coke"- namely, highly successful products with a strong and vocal following.

 

[billd91]

The problem is that magic is required to do anything heroic. You can't fight giant scorpions unless you have magic, because they grapple you (and what 7th level fighter is going to beat a +21 grapple? Without magic?), then they poison you (and you aren't recovering from that any time soon...). You can't fight dinosaurs, again with the grapple. You obviously can't fight anything or anyone with magic. How did Conan defeat all those wizards and priests? For that matter, you can't string 3 fights together without magic because everyone's out of hit points.

It depends on the sort of game you want to play. There are plenty of people who play much lower magic games out there, successfully, with any edition of D&D. The challenges change a little bit and it's harder to throw in the magic-heavy creatures, but none of that precludes heroic action against more mundane yet no less iconic elements of fantasy literature.
The Oriental Adventures game I ran for years had relatively little magic in it (partly because wu jen spell lists were pretty hit-or-miss) but the main opponents were other humans that drove the story lines. No real special amount of magic was ever necessary.

 

[Dragon Snack]

With New Coke, the main competitors were Pepsi and, most relevant, the original "Classic" Coke.

While there is no game that could be considered the "Pepsi" to WotC's 4Ed "New Coke," 3.X in all of its variants (including 3rd party versions like AU/AE, Pathfinder, and Midnight) are definitely analogous to "Classic Coke"- namely, highly successful products with a strong and vocal following.

But the lack of a "Pepsi" competitor lets WotC off the hook a bit. There is nobody breathing down their neck ready to leverage those disaffected customers.

 

[Minicol]

without getting into arguments over game mechanics between various systems, now that we have more info as to what 4e is all about, i'm curious as to people's thoughts on whether or not 4.0 will ultimately succeed as planned. especially in light of the thread on whether or not people will switch over to 4e.


will it work? will new users come on board in great numbers do you think?

joe

I think the core books will sell, though to a much lower extent than the 3.0 did, but the phenomenon will dry quickly, as interest due to newness will fade within a year, it won't be cool anymore.

The "new audience" will not be in the initial coolness run, as no adverts have been done on time to draw them in.

Then, a significant part of the old audience has been lost, including most of the die-hard fans who used to purchase the fluff products and rules supplements.

Then the fans will discover much to their horror that the "perfectly balanced math" that we keep seeing in some threads is oh-so slightly flawed, and will drop too.

Shelf space for the product will wane, shops will close, and wizards will try to cast "animate dead" with 5e.

 

[Mistwell]

I believe preorders for the 3 Core books is now ranked #22 on the Amazon.com bestseller list, and at one point was #20. Currently, it is above books such as The Secret and the Southbeach Diet.

Here is the April Chart (lower is better):

And mind you, this is for a set of books that cost $63, and I believe based on the data I read elsewhere that this means it's about 250 book sets per day just through Amazon (about half a million dollars in sales per month, just at Amazon).

I'd say those are good sales.

According to TitleZ.com, 3.5 Players Handbook had a best ranking of 350. I do not know how accurate that data is though, since I think their data only goes back to Nov. 2004.

 

[Darrin Drader]

I believe preorders for the 3 Core books is now ranked #22 on the Amazon.com bestseller list, and at one point was #20. Currently, it is above books such as The Secret and the Southbeach Diet.

Here is the April Chart (lower is better):

And mind you, this is for a set of books that cost $63, and I believe based on the data I read elsewhere that this means it's about 250 book sets per day just through Amazon (about half a million dollars in sales per month, just at Amazon).

I'd say those are good sales.

According to TitleZ.com, 3.5 Players Handbook had a best ranking of 350. I do not know how accurate that data is though, since I think their data only goes back to Nov. 2004.

What? A well reasoned argument that is supported by evidence in the middle of an edition war? Surely you know that facts have no place in discussions of this kind!

Seriously though, I hope 4th edition does well. If it doesn't, the entire hobby is in for a rough ride over the next few years.

 

[Fifth Element]

I'm hard pressed to think of a single piece of fiction in which magic was involved- comic, novel, movie, or RW legend- in which you didn't use magic or at least arcane knowledge to combat magic, at least at the highest level.

The problem in 3.5 is not that you need magic to fight magic, it's that at higher levels, you need magic to fight anything.

And when no one wants to play a cleric, that severely limits my options as a DM. Am I going to set level-draining undead on a party without access to a quick restoration? (Moot point, since I house-rule out level drain, but the point stands).

In order to survive the RAW in 3.5, you need certain things. You need a cleric or someone able to emulate one, you need a wizard. It's extremely frustrating that the rules require you to do certain things in certain ways.

 

[The Highway Man]

I think D&D 4E will be a commercial success.
It will also make many gamers happy.
Will it draw new players to the game? I doubt it.
Will it satisfy Hasbro's bottom line? Crystal Ball cloudy on this one.

 

[Spinachcat]

4e will draw in many more new gamers than 3e simply because its a far better game for players and more importantly, much better for the DM. It is the best edition since Basic for presenting to noobs. If WotC is smart, they will be able to draw lots of teens into this game. This is the one that could excite a new generation of gamers.

Most of the people who are saying they will stick with 3e will actually become 4e players via two methods: a) their DM will switch over; or b) their players will keep talking about how much more fun they would be having if they were playing 4e instead.

As for me, I will play 4e and occassionally my OD&D Hybrid with 25+ years of houserules when I want to get away from the tactical boardgame.

 

[Destil]

Whether it will do well enough to meet WotC's or Hasbro's financial success metrics is another question entirely. If it doesn't, then at some point sooner than we'd expect, 5Ed will be rolled out.

I really don't get this 'Hasbro wants money, they will make Wizards put out 5E sooner for more moneies.' argument. At all.

Hasbro, of all companies? How long has Parker Brothers been putting out the same Monopoly board? (1935 according to Wikipedia, I'm to lazy to do any real research) I'd think they understand the value of an 'Evergreen' product and if anything discourage a new edition.