will 4.0 succeed?

[Campbell]

I think they have designed a game that could appeal to new players, but a lot depends upon the way that they structure their new player marketing campaign. I hope this time around they also focus on attracting the 18-35 age group instead of just focusing on the teenage group. I believe there is a relatively untapped market with young professionals (many of whom are into fantasy, have relatively geeky interests, and can appreciate the social aspects of the game more than most teens).

 

[Vigilance]

I don't think the success or failure will be a question of when 5th edition will be out, but more one of whether or not WotC will cancel or sell the D&D line if it proves to be unsuccessful by their standards. If they are forced to invest a million or two to reinvent the game and then they only barely make that back, or they don't even get out of it what they put into it, then Hasbro will say that RPGs are no longer viable and they'll end their relationship with it. They may decide to license it out, which would probably be the best situation if a failure occurs, or they might just decide to put it on ice until they can come up with a newer, better strategy for making it appeal to the masses. At that point, the next edition might be radically different than any version of the game we've seen so far, and it might just be developed by the folks in Rhode Island rather than the ones in Seattle.

Hasbro might get out of the P&P RPG business, but I dont think they will sell the brand.

I know this isn't what people want to hear, but let's face it, the brand makes them money.

Even if they decide traditional RPGs are a bad business (I dont think they will btw), why would they sell it, when they can license it out?

Also, this is Hasbro we're talking about here.

They havent done much with GI Joe lately either, but they aren't selling it. They recognize the value of good IP and they hold onto it.

Back on topic, the 4e core books will be hugely successful and it will over time be adopted as the default fantasy game for the majority of the market, IMO.

Chuck

 

[Darrin Drader]

They havent done much with GI Joe lately either, but they aren't selling it. They recognize the value of good IP and they hold onto it.

Actually I beg to differ on your example. Recently they released new versions of the classic (80s era) figures, complete with the original packaging. Even more impressive is the fact that there is a big budget GI Joe movie coming out. OK, technically the movie is a licensed product, but I suspect that we're going to see the toy stores inundated with Joe toys when the movie comes out.

But I agree that they would be unlikely to part with the IP unless they were getting paid on obscene amount for it.

 

[Tetsubo]

I'm sure that 4E will succeed.

I am also sure that it isn't D&D.

I mourn the loss of my favorite RPG.

 

[TheAuldGrump]

It all depends on your measure of 'success'. My suspicions:

1. It will sell better than any other RPG on the market - this is almost a given.
2. It will not be as successful as 3.X in terms of product growth.
3. WotC (or at least Hasbro) will be disappointed with the sales.

And, the only thing I am certain of -
4. I will be sticking with the current rules, and its myriad offspring. (Spycraft, True 20, Pathfinder, etc., etc., etc....)

The Auld Grump

 

[DaveMage]

If we define sales of books as success, 4E should be very successful this year. Once the genreal public picks up (or simply peruses) the new Players Handbook and finds a book without Bards, Druids, and Monks, and a Monster Manual that lacks several of the monsters that have always been core, the question is, will they be OK with such a core rules subscription model, or will they see it for a marketing gimmick/money grab and become turned off?

However, I wonder if the DDI will really be 4E's money pit. So far there have been no indications that WotC can produce and sustain a quality online D&D program worthy of paying for. Unless the quality is massively improved, I see this as leading to the downfall of the new game.

 

[WereSteve]

I think that 4E will finally push alot of the remaining 1E/2E player base into the present. I think it will have this effect as 4E will finaly push existing 1E/2E players to realise how complex and inconsistent the 1E/2E rule set is.

In all honesty, I will not be converting to 4E because it is D&D in name only and otherwise has shown no merits worthy of my even looking at the core books when they are released in June. Given everything I have looked at recently, I feel it is time to break out my old 1E material and return to the good ole days ... for those of us that can handle the new old math.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

If we define sales of books as success, 4E should be very successful this year. Once the genreal public picks up (or simply peruses) the new Players Handbook and finds a book without Bards, Druids, and Monks, and a Monster Manual that lacks several of the monsters that have always been core, the question is, will they be OK with such a core rules subscription model, or will they see it for a marketing gimmick/money grab and become turned off?

I just don't see that many people caring about this. Supplements have always been offered and bought, and no rule system ever was complete. Shadowrun 3E didn't even contain for initiation or bioware in the core rulebook, despite these two very essential elements of Shadowrun (Initiation more so then Bioware...). I think SR 3E was one of the most succesful editions of the game, but I might be wrong.

However, I wonder if the DDI will really be 4E's money pit. So far there have been no indications that WotC can produce and sustain a quality online D&D program worthy of paying for. Unless the quality is massively improved, I see this as leading to the downfall of the new game.

That's my worry. But if they pull it off this time, the effect just can't be discounted. Being able to play D&D online can attract a lot of people that just haven't been able to form a group in their area. Off course this was always a possibility with play by post and existing virtual game table software. But I personally never knew about the latter until 4E came around and WotC announced the DDI. And I think I spend a lot of time "investigating" D&D, so if I didn't know about it, how many others missed it? WotC marketing efforts for DDI can only increase the awareness of this option.

 

[LoneWolf23]

Dunno, don't care. I'm moving on to GURPS.

 

[Mistwell]

It will succeed.

Most folks currently on the fence or planning on not switching will eventually switch once 4e becomes the established game. Same thing happened with 3e. If nothing else it will be the peer pressure effect.

If you like discussing the rules, or adventurers, or characters, or anything about the game really, and you see your peers discussing an edition you don't even play, you start to be more interested in that edition. If you go to game conventions and your favorite DMs are DMing an edition of the game you don't play, you start to be more interested in that other edition. If you go into a gaming store and 90%+ of the new releases are of an edition you don't play, you start to become more interested in that edition.

And most importantly, MOST reports of people who were on the fence about 4e who have played it come back with glowing reports. That, in itself, says a ton to me. If a few people in a gaming group get out there and dare to try a new edition and like it, they will bring that news back to their group, and it will spread.

4e will succeed, and take over this industry, and the hold outs will (like with 2e to 3e) eventually come on board.