Lanefan
Victoria Rules
Yeah, don't get me started on 3e Rogues...Lanefan, I'd argue that your first example isn't actually balanced. The first character is totally dominating one encounter, and is riding the pines in two of them. I'm assuming that 1 out of 5 is pretty much the equivalent of throwing daggers at giants - sure, you did damage, but, the contribution did not really affect the outcome of the situation at all.
I do not want to see a return to this sort of "balance" where we swing so far between useful and riding the pines. Your first example actually looks like a 3e rogue, where the last two encounters are ones against which the rogue's sneak attack doesn't work. Sure, he had that one really good encounter, but, the rest of the time he's either average or well below average.
When I posted that I was kind of ignoring random events like your examples, and trying to go by averages. (your examples would equate to a 0 or a 6)Sure, 3's across the board isn't going to happen either. But, I would hope that everyone at the table is a 2-4 in every encounter with specific reasons for a 1 or a 5 (PC got killed/incapacitated in the surprise round would be a good example of a 1PC nails several crits in a row for a 5).
Where I don't mind it so much, on both a small and large scale.So long as everyone is in the same ballpark, I'm pretty content. Barring some very specific circumstances, characters should never be 1's or 5's.
If I'm playing an Illusionist (in 1e) and we meet a bunch of undead, I'm pretty useless. I'll do what I can, but I'm really not much help...and that's fine, as I'm aware going in that illusions are pointless against undead and that times like this are gonna happen. (I'm a 1)
Conversely, the next encounter might be against a bunch of dumb Ogres. Here, I just go off - they're almost certainly going to believe anything I can dream up, thus I get my chance to go to town and the warrior types can mostly take a breather. (I'm a 5)
Next up might be another wave of Ogres looking for the first lot. I've used up my best spells but I've still got some others left, so I have to co-ordinate with the warriors what to do and then everyone just swarms in. (I'm a 3)
These examples are on the encounter scale. I don't mind if they get jumped up even to the adventure scale (adventure 1 has foes that are almost all undead, adventure 2 is a raid against a village of Ogres, etc.) as long as there's enough variance in the long run to give everyone a chance to do their thing.
A Fighter, on the other hand, rarely if ever is a 5 and rarely if ever is a 1 - no matter what happens, she can always swing her sword at something and slowly chop it down. Doesn't matter whether the wizard's on a 5 encounter or a 1, she's still got that sword and she's still reliably clobberin' away.
Fighters in this example are probably the most stable of all classes; and yeah, even if the wizard blows herself out every morning and makes the party stop for the day you've (very likely) still done your bit in the one battle you had that day. And sometimes you've just gotta haul the wizard up by the scruff of his scrawny little neck and tell him "we're not stopping again just because a' you - now get in line!"
Lanefan